Dipoto was right about Freese!

[bloodbrother]

Back when the Angels traded for him, he had this to say

 

''He knows how to drive in the important runs,'' Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto said. ''That's something that really fits in our lineup.''

 

 

Today's game confirmed it.

[laagamer]

I'm convinced. 

[Blarg]

#allrunsareimportant

[Angelsjunky]

LOL.

 

The irony here is that according to Fangraph's Clutch statistic, Freese has been poor in every single year. So regardless of the occasional clutch hit, David Freese is not a good high leverage hitter.

[Second Base]

Freese got lucky, and I'll take it.  Fact is, it was a pop up, one of a rather routine nature in any other ballpark.  But Houston is laughably small in the corners and gaps.  Even then, he still didn't hit it far enough to even warrant a gap double. One of the stupid quirks of their stupid ballpark made it so that when Rasmus jumped for the ball, he was impeded by an unnecessary corner.  

 

Whatever the case, we're only a game and a half back and very much in this race.  Partly thanks to Freese. 

[seenoevil]

War Jerry!

[bloodbrother]

LOL.

 

The irony here is that according to Fangraph's Clutch statistic, Freese has been poor in every single year. So regardless of the occasional clutch hit, David Freese is not a good high leverage hitter.

 

I think it's because he's not a good player, but I could be wrong

[JoJo26]

It's weird...but when Freeser got hurt...the team tanked.

Co-wink-a-dinky?

[tomsred]

It's weird...but when Freeser got hurt...the team tanked.

Co-wink-a-dinky?

 

The world is full of strange correlations.  If you think about it too much it will drive you crazy.

[Guest]

I think it's because he's not a good player, but I could be wrong

In 2013 Mike Trout was the least clutch player in the American League, few would argue he was not a good player.

[VariousCrap]

Freese got lucky, and I'll take it.  Fact is, it was a pop up, one of a rather routine nature in any other ballpark.  But Houston is laughably small in the corners and gaps.  Even then, he still didn't hit it far enough to even warrant a gap double. One of the stupid quirks of their stupid ballpark made it so that when Rasmus jumped for the ball, he was impeded by an unnecessary corner.  

 

Whatever the case, we're only a game and a half back and very much in this race.  Partly thanks to Freese. 

 

 

   

[Ohtaniland]

Freese is a big reason why we are in third place to begin with. His seeing eye double today doesn't take his season long suckage away.

[tomsred]

David Freese last 30 days is hitting .319, with 9 doubles.  OBP of .355, OPS of .800.  I like this David Freese.  Maybe next year Cowart can provide this type of offense, but not this year.  Cowart is definitely better defensively though.

Edited September 24, 2015 by tomsred

[Adam]

I think the Angels are 15 games over .500 this season with Freese in the line up. His injury is a big reason why the Angels are in third place

[Docwaukee]

I hope everyone understands that the 'clutch' stat on fangraphs compares a player to themselves and not to others.  

 

he's actually been very good with RISP this year.  Even though he was worse than his usual self with RISP the previous two years, he's got a career t ops+ split of 108.  So he's 8% better with RISP than he is for  his career overall. 

 

that said, his career WPA is -1 and he has been worse in high leverage than in low or mid every single season of his career.  Since he came in the league, he's got the 27th lowest clutch rating (-3.78) of the 435 qualified players.  

 

a few other names of note over that time

1. Beltre   -7.37

6. David Dejesus   -6.02

9. Napoli  -5.25

 

plus a bunch of other names you know like Tulo, Kemp, Stanton, Bruce, Upton, Headly, Teix, Hanley, Encarnacion, Dunn, Trumbo etc.  

 

On the flip side

1. Hosmer 5.62

3. Ryan Howard  5.2

19.  Josh Hamilton 2.69

26. Calhoun 2.39

 

Of the 435 qualified, on 177 are in the positive.  And only 85 are above 1.0.  

 

Why?  It's harder to be better than your usual self in high leverage.   The better you are overall, the harder it is to be better than that in high leverage.  If you suck just a bit less in high leverage, you are considered 'clutch'.   Being better than normal in high leverage means you are doing so vs. late inning relievers and pitchers being a lot more careful when the game is tight.  Giving good players less to hit.  

 

ex - Ozzie Guillen had an overall WPA of -21.51 which is awful but was a little better than that in high leverage so he's 7th all time.  

 

BTW, the stat only goes back like less than half of recorded pro baseball.  

 

Albert's clutch is -1.17 btw.  Of the over 70 WPA for his career.  

[Inside Pitch]

It's weird...but when Freeser got hurt...the team tanked.

Co-wink-a-dinky?

 

You realize that goes to show you that the team doesn't need all stars to fill spots -- they just need guys who aren't black holes.   Its not that Freese is great, it's that his replacements have been completely awful.

[Stradling]

So, do we re-sign him?

[mulwin444]

So, do we re-sign him?

That's tough...

 

The entire time he's been here I always felt like we are waiting for the Cardinals version to show up and, when he does, he gets injured.  He's an average hitter at a position where there is not a lot of talent right now in the league so, despite his less than inspiring performance these past two years, it might be advisable to sign him.  After him, your alternatives are Kubitza and Cowart, who may or may not be ready and, if they are not, you may be stuck chasing the Conor Gilaspie's of the baseball world to fill the void.  I think you may have to wait out the market and see if you can get lucky and sign him to a one year deal to give Kubitza/Cowart time to develop a bit more.

Edited September 24, 2015 by mulwin444

[Angelsjunky]

I think it's because he's not a good player, but I could be wrong

 

Doc said it well, but the short answer is that Clutch is relative to the player's own performance. A negative number means they perform worse in high leverage situations than their norm, a positive means they perform better.

 

In 2013 Mike Trout was the least clutch player in the American League, few would argue he was not a good player.

 

Partially because his average level was so great. But he has been better since.

[DMVol]

.... I think you may have to wait out the market and see if you can get lucky and sign him to a one year deal to give Kubitza/Cowart time to develop a bit more.

Not sure you can wait very long....you have a relatively short window to make him a qualifying offer or, if you don't make him the QO, he becomes a FA and can't re-sign with us until May.  He won't get a QO, which is likely to be 13-14 million, so your options (at least I think I'm right on this) are to cut him loose or re-sign him quickly, before the QO deadline.  He may want a 3 year deal and I don't think I'd do that.  2 years I'd probably do.

Edited September 24, 2015 by DMVol

[mulwin444]

Not sure you can wait very long....you have a relatively short window to make him a qualifying offer or he becomes a FA and can't re-sign with us until May.  He won't get a qualifying offer, which is likely to be 13-14 million, so your options (at least I think I'm right on this) are to cut him loose or re-sign him quickly, before the qualifying offer deadline.  He may want a 3 year deal and I don't think I'd do that.  2 years I'd probably do.

Yeah, no way he gets a qualifying offer.  A two year deal would be the absolute max but I am inclined to offer one year or go with what we got now.  He already needs a defensive hand-cuff and is not durable so his greatest addition to the team is that he's slightly above replacement level

[Angelsjunky]

I think the Angels are 15 games over .500 this season with Freese in the line up. His injury is a big reason why the Angels are in third place

 

I hope you are kidding.

[gurn67]

Freese is one of those guys that drives stat geeks nuts. For some reason, the teams he plays on tend perform better when he is in the lineup more often than not. There's no statistical reason that anyone can point to for that reason. I'm sure there's other guys in the league that fit this profile. In my opinion, you can add Cespedes and Jose Uribe to that list as well.

[Homebrewer]

Not sure you can wait very long....you have a relatively short window to make him a qualifying offer or, if you don't make him the QO, he becomes a FA and can't re-sign with us until May. He won't get a QO, which is likely to be 13-14 million, so your options (at least I think I'm right on this) are to cut him loose or re-sign him quickly, before the QO deadline. He may want a 3 year deal and I don't think I'd do that. 2 years I'd probably do.

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Gee..might it be time to get a GM hired and up to speed so these things can get taken care of?

[seenoevil]

Jerry ball baby . boom!