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MLBTradeRumors: 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings


VariousCrap

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If Wieters gets a comp and doesn't accept it he would be absolutely retarded.

 

It's going to be what, 16+ million this year? That would be disastrous for him.

 

He's caught fewer than 100 games in 2 seasons and has posted a 91 OPS+ this year. If he not only gets a QO, but rejects it, then the system is broken.

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The only way this team can improve itself during the time we are guaranteed to have Trout is by going over the luxury tax by bringing in free agents. If you can sign a player and not lose a first round draft pick, you do that even if that player costs you a little more money than it would have otherwise.

Arte has to decide, is he going to play with the big boys or not.

The only big boys over the salary cap are the Dodgers.
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Tdawg I'm working on my Primer and the total I'm currently getting for team payroll (and this may change have to double check numbers) is $171.7MM in AAV.

 

Considering the Angels need in-season payroll margin of about $10MM that only leaves about $7MM to "play with".

Edited by ettin
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It seems the only way to legitimately improve the team next year and for the next few years, is for Arte to bite the bullet and take the luxury tax hit. Now I don't know what the figures will be at the end of the year. There seem to be two different payroll figures that calculate towards the tax threshold. One at the beginning of the year that doesn't include salary of those on the 40 man roster, managers or in-season acquisitions, and one at the end of the year that includes everything. According to Spotrac Payroll tracker, the Angels are currently 38.1 million under the threshold. Seems like a lot of space, right? But then people like Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Fletcher et al indicate the Angels are only about 10 or so million under it. So I'm not sure where those figures are coming from, or how to get it, but it seems the Angels are a lot closer to the threshold than 38 million.

 

 

 

People are throwing the Luxury Tax out and they are attributing the wrong amount.  There is only one Luxury Tax amount.  It is in simple terms the average yearly salary of the player which is (total salary + extra compensation) / year.   You can get the general amount by just doing total salary/year.  This is the basis for the Luxury Tax.  So for each player, you add it up, for the Angels this season (while I haven't made adjustments to my spreadsheet in a while, so I don't have guys like Victorino, and Murphy.) was at $173 million.  The threashhold this season is $186 million.  We are probably very close to that figure right now.

 

The other figure that people are constantly mistaking as the Luxury Tax is the current or beginning of the year payrolls.  So for sporttrack, they are listing the current payrolls.  Current payroll has nothing to do with the Luxury tax.  Especially in the Angels case since Pujols and Trouts salaries are backended.  And that's why you are falsely seeing that we have a lot of luxury tax money to spend.  We don't.  

 

As for an increase in the Luxury Tax.  The amount will probably be small.  Only the Dodgers are blowing through the Luxury Tax.  No other team is going over.  On the MLB Player side, the average MLB salary is still continuing to rise.  On the MLB side, outside of the Dodgers, no team is trying to buy the World Series.  When you look at the standings, no team in the AL has over a .600 win pct.  In the AL only the central is over .600.  I really believe that parity is beginning to set in, where you don't have the rich vs the no chance poor.  And because of that, I can really see a very small bump in the Luxury Tax upcoming.  

 

From my rough figures.  Luxury Tax wise, 2016 $158 million, 2017 $118 million, 2018 $100 million, 2019 $88 million, 2020 $84 million.  That is what we are looking at in the Trout Era.  And if Arte won't go over, then his infatuation with Pujols will have cost us dearly.

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Redid some numbers.  Added our trades.  And also factored in Smiths contract.  

 

Luxury Tax, we are screwed if we don't go over.

 

2016 $168

2017 $127

2018 $101

2019 $88

2020 $84

It's already published that the cap will be $189 for 2016.  

 

Trout's salary for 2016 is -8mil relative to his AAV. 

pujols, smith, street and aybar are all about even

Wilson is +4

Weaver is +3

Hamilton is +5

 

So we are actually +4 in payroll relative to the cap.  I know there is another 10mil or so that they include in the cap that accommodates benefits, so we are -6.  If you don't pick up any options, payroll is around $159 for 2016 so our cap number is pretty close to what you have indicated.  

 

In essence, we will have 20-25mil in cap space for 2016.  After that, the cap number will be lower than payroll because of Trout and Pujols escalating salaries.  So next year is really the only issue but if we add some back loaded salaries this off season, it could become a little tight for 2017 as well.

 

We have 3 major spots to address this year if we go in house at C (2b, 3b, LF).  That would leave us with 1 next year (SS).  But 1b, DH, C, RF, and CF are locked for the foreseeable future.  The rotation is solid with good depth.  The bullpen needs some work, but that is a much easier fix.  

 

Addressing those needs for 2016 and perhaps the next three to five years depending on the contract needs to happen.  We'll have one true albatross contract after 2017.  We'll have 4 next year.  You could add one more long term deal and a couple of shorter ones without too much of a problem.  

 

We are not the phillies.  They didn't have a HOF player in their prime the last few years.  That is the biggest difference.  Maybe some guys bounce back next year, but you can't assume it.  

 

btw, I would imagine that the team is fully aware of the 2016-2017 free agent pool

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html

 

take a ganders at it.  the biggest position player contract for that year might be Josh Reddick or Carlos Gomez.  That should tell you all you need to know.  

 

gotta go get it now.  

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Is Arte Moreno losing money with all his investments including the Halos?

Or is he so principled (not believing in paying tax) that he would be willing to hurt the franchise to not pay the tax?

You make being principled sound like a bad thing. Moreover, if he isn't losing money with his investments including the Angels, how is that hurting the franchise? 

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Not a bad thing at all, just that sometimes you have to understand what is available out there and if you have to compromise some (without giving in totally) so be it.

Anyway, since most other owners seem to include Latin American prospects in their talent base, if you are saying that Arte should stay away all together, is it an indictment on MLB owner principles, because so many teams mine that portion of the world for talent?  

 

My second statement was more in saying hurting the franchise just to save a few million a season by not paying the tax to improve the team. 

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If the Royals decline his option, I'd go after Alex Gordon. HUGE upgrade defensively in left, and adds a pretty good bat to lead off. Instead of one really big signing like Heyward, Upton, Price, Davis, or even Cespedes now, get a Gordon type of player with a Darren O'Day and/or a Juan Uribe type of role player.

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I'd be ecstatic if the Halos signed O'Day.

But will the O's offer the QO?   If so and he refuses it, would he cost the Halos their first round pick?

 

O'Day isn't going to get a QO. That would set a record for the highest single season contract ever given out to a relief pitcher. He would take that all day long.

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I'd be ecstatic if the Halos signed O'Day.

But will the O's offer the QO?   If so and he refuses it, would he cost the Halos their first round pick?

Heeellllll-to-the-no, Baltimore's not going to give O'Day the chance to take up $15+ million the way they operate and when they have to replace Davis, Wieters, Chen, Pearce, and Parra. I can't imagine too many setup men getting QO's. Wade Davis maybe? He'll cost quite a bit, but I don't think a draft pick will be part of the package. Not overly concerned about having two submarine pitchers in the pen either, I think Street, O'Day, Smith, Gott, and Ramos is a great place to start with a core for a good bullpen, just seems to be missing one more hard thrower, though. 

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Heeellllll-to-the-no, Baltimore's not going to give O'Day the chance to take up $15+ million the way they operate and when they have to replace Davis, Wieters, Chen, Pearce, and Parra. I can't imagine too many setup men getting QO's. Wade Davis maybe? He'll cost quite a bit, but I don't think a draft pick will be part of the package. Not overly concerned about having two submarine pitchers in the pen either, I think Street, O'Day, Smith, Gott, and Ramos is a great place to start with a core for a good bullpen, just seems to be missing one more hard thrower, though. 

 

Jepsen_Kevin.jpg

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