MLBTradeRumors: 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

[Homebrewer]

If the rumor is true that Arte is going to stay under the luxury tax limit, then it means that he has shot his wad, and this group of players is what there is to look forward to for the next few seasons. 

I really think the most important thing to do in the off season is get rid of Scioscia and his entire coaching staff.

Butcher's entire pitching staff has sucked this year.

Seems to me a new regime with a fresh message will be more effective than any 1or 2 free agents, when it comes to breathing life into this lackluster, underperforming, team. 

[Angel Oracle]

Camden Yards >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Angel Canyon (err Stadium) for lefty hitters.

Just say no to Chris Davis

 

Because FAs are such a crapshoot, Arte had better reinforce the farm system with real talent and coaches.

 

Now that Cespedes has supposedly increased his earning power to 7 years/$150 million, I'm not sure that he is wise to sign either.

 

The Chavez Latrine bunch are the new Skanks, and hurting MLB with the stupid $300 million payroll.  

Edited September 15, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[nando714]

Doesn't matter

They will play well below their averages and suck when they put the angel uniform on

[Schildog]

there's way too much money in this game. 

[Angel Oracle]

And Arte is getting left further behind each subsequent season.

[floplag]

Noone on that list will be an Angel next year.    
Nor will anyone else with a high dollar value.
Im so utterly disappointed at this team right now i have zero faith this gets fixed in the next 2-3 years.   We simply dont have the farm to fix the problems and are unwilling to go over the lux tax so... until some big money drops off we are toast. 

[Chimi]

The last thing this team needs is more payroll. We need to shed some first, whether that's waiting for some contracts to expire or find a dumb team to take some on. As much as I hate wasting prime years of Mike Trout, I don't know if waiting a couple years to shed some payroll (Weaver, Wilson, and Hamilton) is necessarily a bad thing. Right now we're in luxury tax hell and have a crap team to show for it.

Edited September 15, 2015 by Chimi

[nando714]

The last thing this team needs is more payroll. We need to shed some first, whether that's waiting for some contracts to expire or find a dumb team to take some on. As much as I hate wasting prime years of Mike Trout, I don't know if waiting a couple years to shed some payroll (Weaver, Wilson, and Hamilton) is necessarily a bad thing. Right now we're in luxury tax hell and have a crap team to show for it.

Trade trout a yr or 2 to early than late

[Tank]

i'm surprised matt joyce isn't on that list.

[Angel Oracle]

What people forget about the luxury tax, is that it is minimal for year one.

We stayed under in 2015.

In 2016, say Arte goes $20 million over it.   He only pays a $2 million tax (10%).   I'd call that minimal to improve the team.

Then he frees up $31 million after 2016 (Weave and Nibs) anyway to get back under the luxury tax threshold.

 

But, and a BIG but, we had better be smarter at signing FAs than we have been since this decade started.

Edited September 15, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[Angelfaninidaho]

Trade trout a yr or 2 to early than late

 

For what?

[VariousCrap]

The only way this team can improve itself during the time we are guaranteed to have Trout is by going over the luxury tax by bringing in free agents.  If you can sign a player and not lose a first round draft pick, you do that even if that player costs you a little more money than it would have otherwise.

 

Arte has to decide, is he going to play with the big boys or not.

[laagamer]

Seems to me a new regime with a fresh message will be more effective than any 1or 2 free agents, when it comes to breathing life into this lackluster, underperforming, team.

New coaches would impact on field play more than 2 AS caliber additions and a couple bench pieces?

What?

[Angel Oracle]

Both would be fine by me.

[VariousCrap]

Both would be fine by me.

 

 

 

I agree.  Bring in a couple top FA's and an entire new coaching staff.

[gotbeer]

What people forget about the luxury tax, is that it is minimal for year one.

We stayed under in 2015.

In 2016, say Arte goes $20 million over it.   He only pays a $2 million tax (10%).   I'd call that minimal to improve the team.

Then he frees up $31 million after 2016 (Weave and Nibs) anyway to get back under the luxury tax threshold.

 

But, and a BIG but, we had better be smarter at signing FAs than we have been since this decade started.

 

Unless you are signing one year deals or trading for mercs.  It's hard to stay under once you go over.  In the Angels case, for Free Agency they will need to spend on players requiring multiple years.  In the big free agents cases, 5-7 years.  

 

IMO, you have to look at Trout as a 5 year commodity.  After the 5 years, you probably will have nothing.  

 

Do you rebuild?  i would say no.  Because it takes 3-6 years for prospects to pan out.  Look at the angels farm.  We do not have those types of prospects.  So we would waste 3-6 years of Trout trying to rebuild a winner.  

 

Do you stand pat?  5 years and counting of spinning the wheels.  Looking at the playoff teams, or at least the division leaders.  Do the Angels really stack up well against those teams looking at next year?  IMO, no.

 

Spend?  If we get the right pieces, will the Angels be able to stack up against the current division leaders?  We are currently 25th in the league in runs scored.  12th in the league in runs allowed.  We definitely need help on the offense side of things.  But to get that help we will need to spend.  Spend to make the most of the 5 years of Trout.  

[Angel Oracle]

Understood to a certain point, but considering that they free up close to $70 million from Weave, Nibs, Hackilton, Freese, and IaNADA alone by November 2017; what is going to keep them over the luxury tax in 2018 if they only bring in one high end FA by then?

Also considering that the threshold increases as each year goes by?

 

Even year two is only 20%, iirc.    So being say $20 million over in 2017 for a second year would only mean paying $4 million in 2017.

Still pretty much minimal in the hopes of staying a contender

 

One strong FA bat (LF or 2B) and trading excess pitching for a second bat should be a good start on the road back, as long as the farm system is given serious direction.  

Edited September 15, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[floplag]

The only way this team can improve itself during the time we are guaranteed to have Trout is by going over the luxury tax by bringing in free agents.  If you can sign a player and not lose a first round draft pick, you do that even if that player costs you a little more money than it would have otherwise.

 

Arte has to decide, is he going to play with the big boys or not.

 

 

Seems to me that decision has been made since all weve heard all year is that the club is unwilling to pay it

[Angel Oracle]

Is Arte Moreno losing money with all his investments including the Halos?

Or is he so principled (not believing in paying tax) that he would be willing to hurt the franchise to not pay the tax?

[Docwaukee]

What people forget about the luxury tax, is that it is minimal for year one.

We stayed under in 2015.

In 2016, say Arte goes $20 million over it.   He only pays a $2 million tax (10%).   I'd call that minimal to improve the team.

Then he frees up $31 million after 2016 (Weave and Nibs) anyway to get back under the luxury tax threshold.

 

But, and a BIG but, we had better be smarter at signing FAs than we have been since this decade started.

the first year overage is 17.5%.  

 

we are not actually in luxury tax hell like we were a couple of years ago.  Our payroll is actually pretty close to our lux tax number and the threshold has gone up to 189mil.  So we are almost 30 mil below the lux tax for 2016 if we didn't pick up the murphy and dejesus options which we wont.  

 

The CBA expires after 2016 and in all likelihood, there will be a new higher threshold in 2017 due to increasing team revenues from TV contracts.  

 

Let's just establish that there is no way we are trading Trout.  End of story.   I could make an argument as to why, but it's a waste of time.  He's not going anywhere.  

 

So, we are about 30mil below the LTT (luxury tax threshold) that is set to go up the next season and foreseeable future (likely).  

2017 starts with Weaver, Wilson and Aybar off the books with Trout, Pujols and Street as the only guaranteed contract.  This means, however a bump in arb estimates so I think they will work out a couple of deals with Richards, Calhoun and Santiago.  Both pitchers are going to start getting a bit expensive by then.  Not crazy though.  

 

Everyone else is pretty much expendable and can be replaced by league minimum guys so the arb numbers don't get out of control.  

 

2018-2020 - Hamilton comes off the books after 2018.  You have two long fixed salaries in Trout and Pujols totaling 62mil.  I think we can assume that Calhoun and Richards will cut deals and Santiago might or he might be traded.  Those three might cost about 20mil between them.  So you'll have about 85mil in guarantees for those three years giving you 115-120 to work with assuming the LTT goes to around 200mil.  

 

2016 is tight.  2017 is workable and 2018 and beyond is fine.  Maybe add heaney and skaggs or newcobe to the extended contracts starting in 2018.  

 

So for the next five year (the Trout years) their payroll situation is not that bad - especially starting in 2018.  The problem is talent and in particular on the position player side.  

 

In house options for C are fine.  Not great, but acceptable.  

That leaves needs at 3b, 2b, LF for next year and SS after next year.  

 

The other key to adding these players is not losing a draft pick.  Rebuilds aren't going to happen in 2-3 years.  For us in particular, we have no foreign money to spend and the restrictions are pretty limiting anyway.  

 

Ideal but unlikely would be

Price

Cespedes 

Zobrist

two pen arms 

 

possible

Parra 

Zobrist 

Uribe or retain Freese

pen arm

 

The first option probably adds about 75mil to your cap number putting us over by 45 mil next year and costing Arte an additional 8 mil and payroll would be around 230mil depending on back loading.  This isn't going to happen unless by some miracle we can get someone to take Wilson and Weaver retires.  

 

The second option adds about 40mil to payroll/cap and puts us over by 10mil for 2016.  Plus, none of those guys will get contracts longer than 4 years.  (my guess is 4 for Parra with a vesting option, 3 for Zobrist, 1 for Uribe or 3 for Freese).  I'd personally like to get Uribe instead of Freese as a stop gap and let Cowart get a shot.  Uribe can also play 2b or even SS in a pinch.  Not sure if Zobrist would be a capable SS if Aybar is left to become a FA.  Doubt it, but something to consider as well.

 

The lineup would look like this:

Calhoun

Trout

Pujols

Zobrist

Cron

Parra

Aybar

Uribe

Perez

 

All really good defenders.  A little bit of speed.  No one ultra fast so not a ton of SB, but certainly not as station to station as we are now.  Plus, no lost draft picks.  All contracts expire before Trout is a FA so you could still have the flexibility to sign him to a long term deal.   You'll have to address SS and 3b in 2017, but you'll actually have some additional payroll flex at this point.  

 

Side note on Kendrick.  The Dodgers love their draft picks.  I would almost guarantee them offering him a 1yr deal for a comp.  I would not give up a first round pick for him.  

 

You could also consider going a little bit bigger and adding Cespedes instead of Parra.  Going another 5-7 mil over the cap for 2016 and decreasing your future payroll flexibility, but that would certainly give the lineup more punch.  

[VariousCrap]

Seems to me that decision has been made since all weve heard all year is that the club is unwilling to pay it

 

 

Excellent point, but Arte is known to have a huge ego.  How much longer will he be willing to lose ground to the Dodgers in terms of performance, attendance, relevance and so on?  Not only has this team taken a huge slip in the standings, but they have also taken a big step back in reputation due to the way Arte and the front office handled some things this year.  There is no way that is lost on him.  Finally, he has to know, it is simply ridiculous to waste Trout's prime years.  It makes no sense to do that on the field or from a financial aspect either.

[VariousCrap]

the first year overage is 17.5%.  

 

we are not actually in luxury tax hell like we were a couple of years ago.  Our payroll is actually pretty close to our lux tax number and the threshold has gone up to 189mil.  So we are almost 30 mil below the lux tax for 2016 if we didn't pick up the murphy and dejesus options which we wont.  

 

The CBA expires after 2016 and in all likelihood, there will be a new higher threshold in 2017 due to increasing team revenues from TV contracts.  

 

Let's just establish that there is no way we are trading Trout.  End of story.   I could make an argument as to why, but it's a waste of time.  He's not going anywhere.  

 

So, we are about 30mil below the LTT (luxury tax threshold) that is set to go up the next season and foreseeable future (likely).  

2017 starts with Weaver, Wilson and Aybar off the books with Trout, Pujols and Street as the only guaranteed contract.  This means, however a bump in arb estimates so I think they will work out a couple of deals with Richards, Calhoun and Santiago.  Both pitchers are going to start getting a bit expensive by then.  Not crazy though.  

 

Everyone else is pretty much expendable and can be replaced by league minimum guys so the arb numbers don't get out of control.  

 

2018-2020 - Hamilton comes off the books after 2018.  You have two long fixed salaries in Trout and Pujols totaling 62mil.  I think we can assume that Calhoun and Richards will cut deals and Santiago might or he might be traded.  Those three might cost about 20mil between them.  So you'll have about 85mil in guarantees for those three years giving you 115-120 to work with assuming the LTT goes to around 200mil.  

 

2016 is tight.  2017 is workable and 2018 and beyond is fine.  Maybe add heaney and skaggs or newcobe to the extended contracts starting in 2018.  

 

So for the next five year (the Trout years) their payroll situation is not that bad - especially starting in 2018.  The problem is talent and in particular on the position player side.  

 

In house options for C are fine.  Not great, but acceptable.  

That leaves needs at 3b, 2b, LF for next year and SS after next year.  

 

The other key to adding these players is not losing a draft pick.  Rebuilds aren't going to happen in 2-3 years.  For us in particular, we have no foreign money to spend and the restrictions are pretty limiting anyway.  

 

Ideal but unlikely would be

Price

Cespedes 

Zobrist

two pen arms 

 

possible

Parra 

Zobrist 

Uribe or retain Freese

pen arm

 

The first option probably adds about 75mil to your cap number putting us over by 45 mil next year and costing Arte an additional 8 mil and payroll would be around 230mil depending on back loading.  This isn't going to happen unless by some miracle we can get someone to take Wilson and Weaver retires.  

 

The second option adds about 40mil to payroll/cap and puts us over by 10mil for 2016.  Plus, none of those guys will get contracts longer than 4 years.  (my guess is 4 for Parra with a vesting option, 3 for Zobrist, 1 for Uribe or 3 for Freese).  I'd personally like to get Uribe instead of Freese as a stop gap and let Cowart get a shot.  Uribe can also play 2b or even SS in a pinch.  Not sure if Zobrist would be a capable SS if Aybar is left to become a FA.  Doubt it, but something to consider as well.

 

The lineup would look like this:

Calhoun

Trout

Pujols

Zobrist

Cron

Parra

Aybar

Uribe

Perez

 

All really good defenders.  A little bit of speed.  No one ultra fast so not a ton of SB, but certainly not as station to station as we are now.  Plus, no lost draft picks.  All contracts expire before Trout is a FA so you could still have the flexibility to sign him to a long term deal.   You'll have to address SS and 3b in 2017, but you'll actually have some additional payroll flex at this point.  

 

Side note on Kendrick.  The Dodgers love their draft picks.  I would almost guarantee them offering him a 1yr deal for a comp.  I would not give up a first round pick for him.  

 

You could also consider going a little bit bigger and adding Cespedes instead of Parra.  Going another 5-7 mil over the cap for 2016 and decreasing your future payroll flexibility, but that would certainly give the lineup more punch.  

 

 

 

Nice post.  I think if the Dodgers make that offer to Howie, he takes it.

[tdawg87]

I'm not feeling well at all so some of this may not make any sense so I apologize in advance.

 

So, Arte has a lot of thinking to do this offseason.

 

First, the team does not have the farm or the MLB-ready commodities to make trades to significantly improve the team. The tradable players they do have would just create another big hole (Calhoun, Aybar, Street), and the farm system is still shitty, despite what some of the people here might say. We have some solid pitching depth and a legit SP prospect in Newcomb, but that's it.

 

It seems the only way to legitimately improve the team next year and for the next few years, is for Arte to bite the bullet and take the luxury tax hit. Now I don't know what the figures will be at the end of the year. There seem to be two different payroll figures that calculate towards the tax threshold. One at the beginning of the year that doesn't include salary of those on the 40 man roster, managers or in-season acquisitions, and one at the end of the year that includes everything. According to Spotrac Payroll tracker, the Angels are currently 38.1 million under the threshold. Seems like a lot of space, right? But then people like Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Fletcher et al indicate the Angels are only about 10 or so million under it. So I'm not sure where those figures are coming from, or how to get it, but it seems the Angels are a lot closer to the threshold than 38 million.

 

But lets just say Arte says "**** it" and throws his checkbook at *insert GM here* and tells them to "make the team better, no matter the cost". Well, that initially sounds like a bad idea because that's exactly the attitude that got this team in this position in the first place. Certainly, signing big contracts to aging veterans should be a big red flag to Arte at this point, right? I mean after the Hamilton debacle why the hell would he want to sign another big name free agent?

 

But that is our dilemma here. There honestly is no other option besides standing pat and hoping for the best. We've seen these "smart veteran" signings/trades backfire so many times this year it's actually hilarious. So really, what else is there to do?

 

The good news is, this is a very deep FA class. The even better news is, there are options available that can improve the team (at the cost of payroll) without mortgaging the future via lost draft picks. The Angels have more holes to plug than victor's mom, and they need to fill those holes to improve the team.

 

Go all out on Cespedes. Don't care. **** it. Just get him.

Go all out on Zobrist as well. Kendrick is younger, and will likely be cheaper overall, but Zobrist won't cost a draft pick (Howie may), will only be signed for 2-3 years, and is a better player than Kendrick.

Sign Darren O'Day. Re-write this wrong. Shore the shit out of the bullpen for another 2-3 years.

Sign Matt Wieters. A catching tandem of Wieters/Perez is pretty damn solid. Wieters hasn't caught anywhere near a full season in two years so he's not going to break the bank.

 

I would love to have Price. I really would. But that's another long term contract that will kill the team in the end. At least with this scenario, they only really have one potential "disaster" contract with Cespedes. The Angels do need a frontline starter, but I don't think it's a desperate need.

 

The Angels also have the option of selling high on Santiago and getting a couple of solid prospects in return. Not really a necessity, but an option to possibly improve the team in the long term as well.

[Homebrewer]

I agree with all this T...except I will be very much OK with Perez and Bandy behind the plate.

[Docwaukee]

Wieters could be one of those guys who ends up being associated with a comp and boras rides him into June.