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Realistically, What Does It Take To Make The Playoffs?


VariousCrap

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I believe there are 31 games left in the season.  The Angels are currently 65-66, 7.5 games back in the division and 3.5 back in the wild card.

 

For those last 31 games, what type of record do you think it will take for the Angels to make it to the playoffs?

Do they need to do something amazing like go 25-6 the rest of the way?  Would something like 20-11 make it happen?

 

Any realistic ideas?

 

 

 

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And they play the Astros a few more times too.  Winning those key series would be very important, but they also need a really good stretch like they had in July.  I'm not sure they have it in them.  They look tired and frustrated.  They need a "second wind" to make it to the playoffs this year.  

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Problem is, it's not just Texas: it's Minnesota, Tampa, and the Indians (even Baltimore, if you want to be generous).  They're all right in there with essentially the same (or better) record than the Angels.  It's not impossible, but obviously the more teams in the way, the harder it becomes.

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Texas is at 68-62.  Angels at 65-66

 

If you assume they go .500 rest of the season.

Texas 84-78

Angels would then need to go 19-12

 

If you assume they go their current clip of .523

Texas 85-77

Angels would need to go 20-11

 

I think any team that finishes the season at .600 has a chance.  .650 and they probably for sure gets in.  In 32 games, that would be 19-13 or 21-11.  for the Angels, it's out of 31 games, so 19-12 or 21-10.  

 

So not out of the realm of the possible.  

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And that is why I can't give up totally on the season even though they look like crap out there.  This is a team that went 17-3 in July and looked like the team that won the West last year.  Can they go on that type of run again?  That is what we are all hoping for.  Imagine if they went something like 14-6 in their next 20 games, all of a sudden things get very interesting.

 

There is nothing showing me they have that in them at this point in the season, but it is that hope that keeps me watching.  Well, that and Mike Trout.

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We still have to remember that they have mostly a rotation of starters without experience pitching beyond inning 170 in a season.

That plus a crappy front end of the bullpen leads to overuse for Street and Smith, which = very tough for the offense to overcome that. 

 

I imagine that the Cardinals' starters in 2006 were used to at least close to 200 inning seasons already, come that September.

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pitching 

first 74 games - 3.80era

next 20 games - 2.26era

last 37 games - 5.22era

 

hitting 

first 74 games - 3.9rpg

next 20 games - 5.65rpg

last 37 games - 3.2rpg 

 

the offense has gone as trout goes.  no surprise there.  

it has only be a little worse during this streak than the rest of the year otherwise, and that can be accounted for by Trout's worst month ever.

 

the pitching has been about 1.7 runs worse per game during the streak.  that is the absolute killer.  

 

so what do we realistically need to make the playoffs?

 

we need Mike Trout to be Mike Trout and not Lance Bass

we need the pitching to go back to what it was

we need at least one other player to really pick up the offense.  

 

most of all, they need some positive energy.  they look beaten.  kind of like something weird happened.  

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Realistically, it's unrealistic the Angels any chance to make the playoffs.

 

Time to let Cowart and Perez play full time, give Tropeano five or six starts (shut down Weaver...I'm too distraught to watch him anymore) and maybe even bring up Newcomb and let him pitch in relief a few times...what a season he's had!

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I would wait on Newcomb, as he's only been a pro for some 14-15 months.

Let him pitch his normal innings through Labor Day weekend, plus maybe one start in post-season action for Arkansas, and then shut him down.

Don't want to extend him waaaay beyond 30 more innings in 2015, than his 2014 season across college and pro starts.

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