Jim Bowden: Newcomb for Upton?

[Lou]

I think the deal is about right in terms of value for value - Newcomb is a potential #1-2 starter, probably a grade A- prospect at this point in Sickels' system, while Justin Upton is a 28-year old borderline star.

 

That said, Upton is NOT a star, in my opinion - not anymore. In fact, I'd say he's one of the most overrated players in baseball. He looked like he was going to be a star, even a superstar, in 2011 when he hit .289/.369/.529 with a 6.3 fWAR.  Consider that over the last four years, from 2012-15, he's accrued an fWAR of 11.0--tied with Erick Aybar and just below Howie Kendrick--which is good for 52nd among all major league regulars (and less than a third of Trout's total during that period!). His stat line during that time is .268/.347/.455 with an average of 22 HR. Hardly awe-inspiring.

 

Considering all that I'd say no to the deal. I'd much rather see the Angels trade a lesser talent for someone like Adam Lind, who is actually a better hitter than Upton.

I love reading aj's breakdowns and analyses

[Dave Saltzer]

It's not an unreasonable deal, but there's no way I'd do it. I've seen Newcomb, and frankly believe he's a #1-2 pitcher, #3 at worst. We need young, cost-controlled arms to support our already existing contracts over the next 5+ years. For the money, we can buy more for the offense than we can for pitching, so, I'd much rather have Newcomb. I don't even think I'd do Chuck's proposal involving Ellis and Rhoades, but I'd be more open to it. There's very little chance that we can sign Upton long-term here (would anyone really advise him to avoid the money he might make in a free agent bidding war?), so, giving up 6 years of Newcomb would be more hurtful to us long-term.

[QuinlansMinion]

#3 starters arent hard to find in baseball anymore. Practically every pitcher in baseball is a # 3. Better hope at worst Newcomb is a # 2 starter.

[Guest]

Newcomb straight up for Upton is honestly a fair trade. It's either give up your top guy for Upton or your next 3-4 top guys for Upton.

One year of Kendrick gave the Angels a top 30 prospect. A half year of Upton could very likely cost a top 50 prospect.

Not saying I'd do it. Just saying that it isn't unreasonable. It will all come down to what the Padres want.

Trading prospects for rentals is a horrible value.

I would say Heaney + Giavotella is already as valuable to the Angels as Kendrick + whoever is seventh on our starting pitching depth chart. And we get to keep Heaney for years to come.

I actually agree with Stoneman's philosophy of never ever trading away home grown prospects.

Edited July 16, 2015 by ScottLux

[Guest]

The shitty one is Melvin.

 

Justin is the decent one.

Justin is pretty good, and he had a very hot start this year–but he's just incredibly overhyped. Trading Newcomb for him would be a catastrophic failure, and I'm sure the Padres would want more for Upton.

[Angelsjunky]

I must admit my hesitation about this trade also has to do with wanting to see this (almost) homegrown rotation in a couple years:

 

Garret Richards

Andrew Heaney

Sean Newcomb

Tyler Skaggs

Matt Shoemaker/Hector Santiago/Nick Tropeano/Jeremy Rhoades/Chris Ellis/Nate Smith/Joe Gatto

 

In my mind Heaney and Newcomb are all but untouchable as they are probably the two pitchers that hold the most future value, with Richards right there as well. You hold onto Skaggs as well because you want to see how he comes back. But if you're going to trade for someone, a couple of the pitchers in the last line there could net someone like Adam Lind.

[Angelsjunky]

That said, I was also among those who agreed with Stoneman ten years ago in not trading away any of the pieces of our "future superstar infield":

 

C Jeff Mathis

1B Casey Kotchman

2B Howie Kendrick

SS Brandon Wood

3B Dallas McPherson

UT Sean Rodriguez

 

Only one of those players turned out close to what was hoped for, and even he (Kendrick) was somewhat disappointing in that he was a .290 hitter, not a .320+ one.

 

Anyhow, a good GM knows who to trade away and who to keep. I really liked Dipoto's track record in this regard - virtually none of young players he's traded away (except for possible Grichuk) panned out so far.

[CanadianHalo]

@MikeDiGiovanna: Hearing #Angels active in pursuit of hitter but prices still high. Waiting for them to come down. Appears to be lot of posturing in market.

This is nice to see. I honestly feel with a capable LF'er we most likely would've beaten KC last year and then who knows what would've happened. Hamilton came up in so many crucial spots and failed to deliver, if we stick with Joyce I feel like the same thing will happen again

[Hollyw00d]

We need a big bat!!!!!

[UndertheHalo]

@MikeDiGiovanna: Hearing #Angels active in pursuit of hitter but prices still high. Waiting for them to come down. Appears to be lot of posturing in market.

This is nice to see. I honestly feel with a capable LF'er we most likely would've beaten KC last year and then who knows what would've happened. Hamilton came up in so many crucial spots and failed to deliver, if we stick with Joyce I feel like the same thing will happen again

I would love to get another decent LF, but I don't think we were beating KC last season no matter what.  They were hot and we were not.  As we were, we were good enough to beat them.  Didnt happen, thats baseball.

[tdawg87]

****in' Aioki.

[Angel Oracle]

****in' Aioki.

Does that come with Aioli sauce?

[JarsOfClay]

I'm anxiously waiting for the narrative changes over the next couple of weeks. If the Angels don't make a move it is because of Stoneman. If the Angels do make a move that people don't like it is because of Scioscia. Is that about right? If so who gets the credit if it is a trade that is disliked at the time (ala Huston Street) but turns out to be a great impactful trade? My guess is the credit would go to Servais or that other guy.

 

I still dont believe for a second that stoneman is in control of anything at all, i really hope im wrong because i hope they stand pat.  

 

Honestly we dont really know who calls the shots anymore, but when the angels do make a trade it will be very telling, if they go after upton, well it's a typical arte/scioscia trade in which you give up the future in order to get a quick fix - a fix that has never worked for these 2 idiots in the 13 years they have been together.

[Halos of Anaheim]

Lol when did Newcomb and Heaney become so good? Did I miss something, or are we just overvaluing our prospects per usual?

 

I personally wouldn't mind the trade if Upton signed an extension as soon as possible. 

Edited July 17, 2015 by Halos of Anaheim

[ten ocho recon scout]

Some of you guys are seriously underrating upton. Im not saying that means you do this trade, but tdawg is correct, kendrick cost heaney...upton has more value than kendrick.

AJ beat me to the punch...ten years ago we didnt think mcab was worth santana, wood, and aybar. Obviously upton isnt mcab, but he sure as hell is a plus player. In his worst yesr hes probably torii when he was at his peak (with more power).

Again, im not saying you do this deal...but its not as far fetched as some of you think.

Bottom line, were going to need to add offense. Whether thats this deadline or over the winter i dont know. But pujols isnt getting younger, our LF situation is brutal, freese is likely gone after this year (wherher thats good or bad, who do we replace him with), gio could fall to earth and aybar is getting ready to bail....

[Dick B Back]

If 25+ home run Upton were to play half his games in Anaheim, what do you think we'd end up with?

Just say no!

[Hollyw00d]

When it comes to upton, I think many here are confusing production with potential.

Yes upton appears to have a lot of talent. He was extremely hyped as a prospect. He had a couple very good seasons with the diamondbacks. Since then, his desire and work ethic has come in question. He's been hurt a lot. As far as actual on the field production, the past five years he's been barely above average. In the NL

Is he really the fix we're looking for? For a rental?

He's also unbelievably streaky. He looks like superman one month, and then the next three he'll look like the worst hitter in baseball. What if we get the crap upton for the second half of the season, and give up Newcombe for it?

Edited July 17, 2015 by Hollyw00d

[ten ocho recon scout]

Good points hollywood. It doesnt have to be him, but were going to need someone. Not to make a run for this year, but to make a run the next few.

There arent any big free agent bats in the near future, and with the market so dry, were going to end up overpaying for one either way. Be it in prospects or a contract, were going to need to do something.

[SoWhat]

Lol when did Newcomb and Heaney become so good? Did I miss something, or are we just overvaluing our prospects per usual?

No, you definitely missed something .

[Stradling]

Lol when did Newcomb and Heaney become so good? Did I miss something, or are we just overvaluing our prospects per usual?

I personally wouldn't mind the trade if Upton signed an extension as soon as possible.

I would say Heaney became that good when he came up and dominated major league hitters. I'm not sure I'm allowed to say he dominated without Soto calling me Hawk Harrelson Jr

[JarsOfClay]

Lol when did Newcomb and Heaney become so good? Did I miss something, or are we just overvaluing our prospects per usual?

I personally wouldn't mind the trade if Upton signed an extension as soon as possible.

id take my chances with newcomb because if he does pan out and becomes a #1, you know how much #1's make nowadays? at least 30m per season. pitching has become so expensive and it's only getting worse every year. if the angels wanna remain competitive then they gotta get these pitchers through the draft and hang onto them.

And where exactly are the angels gonna get the money to sign upton to an extension? he's going to ask for at least 20m per season and the angels are almost capped.

Edited July 17, 2015 by JarsOfClay

[Stradling]

id take my chances with newcomb because if he does pan out and becomes a #1, you know how much #1's make nowadays? at least 30m per season. pitching has become so expensive and it's only getting worse every year. if the angels wanna remain competitive then they gotta get these pitchers through the draft and hang onto them.

And where exactly are the angels gonna get the money to sign upton to an extension? he's going to ask for at least 20m per season and the angels are almost capped.

I'm behind the times, how many pitchers are making $30m a season, I thought it was just Kershaw. Does Verlander or Sherzer make that? I'm honestly asking, I could have sworn it was just Ker.

[JarsOfClay]

I'm behind the times, how many pitchers are making $30m a season, I thought it was just Kershaw. Does Verlander or Sherzer make that? I'm honestly asking, I could have sworn it was just Ker.

kershaw, sherzer yes, not verlander, his deal was too far back. felix makes 25m.

greinke definitely will next year as well.

Edited July 17, 2015 by JarsOfClay

[tomsred]

I would love to get another decent LF, but I don't think we were beating KC last season no matter what.  They were hot and we were not.  As we were, we were good enough to beat them.  Didnt happen, thats baseball.

 

Don't forget, we also didn't have Richards and also very disfunctional Wilson.  As far as starters were concerned it was Weaver and Shoemaker, and that was pretty much it.  So it wasn't all on the LF position. 

[Stradling]

kershaw, sherzer yes, not verlander, his deal was too far back. felix makes 25m.

greinke definitely will next year as well.

Ok so if Heaney or Newcombe are one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball they might make $25-30 million a season six years after they come up.