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Don't write the Athletics off yet


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I know, 10.5 games behind. But consider this:

 

Their Pythagorean record is 47-35, or ten games better (or worse) than their actual record of 37-45. Maybe that's poor management, but it could also be a lot of bad luck.

 

Through their first 44 games they went 14-30 (.318). Since then they are 23-15 (.605). Since June 10 they are 14-8 (.636), so it seems their trajectory continues to improve.

 

Also, consider that they are 3rd in the AL in runs scored and 1st in ERA (the Angels are 12th and 5th, respectively).

 

The bottom line: The Athletics are a good team who had a terrible start. If they continue at a .600 pace for the rest of the year, they'll finish with an 85-77 record, which may be enough to win the AL West.

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Looks like they'll be sellers at the trade deadline. Astros will not fold like the A's last season. Inserting Carlos Correa into their lineup was a huge lift for them. They'll pick up a pitcher at the deadline which will make them a huge favorite to win the division.

Angels will get a Wild Card spot with Richards on the mound. Anything is possible for the Angels this season ... especially if they get a reliable power bat.

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Just curious. Is there any data demonstrating the accuracy of the Pythagorean rankings. I really believe stat geeks takes things too far.

I know, 10.5 games behind. But consider this:

Their Pythagorean record is 47-35, or ten games better (or worse) than their actual record of 37-45. Maybe that's poor management, but it could also be a lot of bad luck.

Through their first 44 games they went 14-30 (.318). Since then they are 23-15 (.605). Since June 10 they are 14-8 (.636), so it seems their trajectory continues to improve.

Also, consider that they are 3rd in the AL in runs scored and 1st in ERA (the Angels are 12th and 5th, respectively).

The bottom line: The Athletics are a good team who had a terrible start. If they continue at a .600 pace for the rest of the year, they'll finish with an 85-77 record, which may be enough to win the AL West.

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Just curious. Is there any data demonstrating the accuracy of the Pythagorean rankings. I really believe stat geeks takes things too far.

 

 

No one, as far as I know, takes Pythagorean rankings too seriously, except as another data point. What they show us is how a team's record would look if it was based on runs scored vs. runs allowed. In other words, how good a team is "on paper." But what is lacking are the little, day to day things like clutch hitting and luck.

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Based on what your telling me it must not take into account the players and teams play differently when a game is close and when it's a blow out.

No one, as far as I know, takes Pythagorean rankings too seriously, except as another data point. What they show us is how a team's record would look if it was based on runs scored vs. runs allowed. In other words, how good a team is "on paper." But what is lacking are the little, day to day things like clutch hitting and luck.

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No one, as far as I know, takes Pythagorean rankings too seriously, except as another data point. What they show us is how a team's record would look if it was based on runs scored vs. runs allowed. In other words, how good a team is "on paper." But what is lacking are the little, day to day things like clutch hitting and luck winning.

 

fixed

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No one, as far as I know, takes Pythagorean rankings too seriously, except as another data point. What they show us is how a team's record would look if it was based on runs scored vs. runs allowed. In other words, how good a team is "on paper." But what is lacking are the little, day to day things like clutch hitting and luck.

or taking into account each situation. Baseball is nothing if not reactive to the situations teams face in each inning, not to mention games. Aggregate numbers are too general for analysis in this area.

Damn, that was some clever shit, huh?

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Based on what your telling me it must not take into account the players and teams play differently when a game is close and when it's a blow out.

 

 

Yes, exactly. Which is why it is limited.

 

or taking into account each situation. Baseball is nothing if not reactive to the situations teams face in each inning, not to mention games. Aggregate numbers are too general for analysis in this area.

Damn, that was some clever shit, huh?

 

Yes, true. But again, no stathead that I know of takes things like Pythagorean out of context. It is just one data point of many - with limited utility.

 

Actually, the main complaint about Pythagorean is the same complain "stat-o-phobes" have in general: "But it doesn't explain everything!" Yeah, no shit.

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If I know the A's, they'll trade off Zobrist and Kazmir and somehow end up performing better because they're the freakin' A's.

Just a guess, but I think the Astros are so hot right now the only place left to go is down. They are playing way over their collective heads. But I also think they'll acquire help at the deadline. But all in all, I think they're a .500 team from here on out, and finish around 87 wins.

The Rangers had their little hit streak and now we'll see them return to form, and probably finish the year with 75 wins.

The M's will pitch their ways into a WC conversation for a little bit before settling in right around 80 wins.

The A's will end up in the same area, 80 wins.

The Angels won't trade for the bat they need because it's f'n Bill Stoneman and it'll piss everyone off to no end. They'll continue to pitch amazingly and the hitting will improve just enough to be Quinlan-esque, instead of Mathis-like. Because of their unwillingness to trade the stupid amount of pitching prospects they have, we 'll see the Angels end up around 87 wins, instead of the 90+ they'd be capable of if they went out and landed Adam Lind and Ben Revere/Andre Ethier like they should've done.

But the good news is they'll bring Howie Kendrick back in free agency this next year, so that'll be a fun little storyline.

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If I know the A's, they'll trade off Zobrist and Kazmir and somehow end up performing better because they're the freakin' A's.

Just a guess, but I think the Astros are so hot right now the only place left to go is down. They are playing way over their collective heads. But I also think they'll acquire help at the deadline. But all in all, I think they're a .500 team from here on out, and finish around 87 wins.

The Rangers had their little hit streak and now we'll see them return to form, and probably finish the year with 75 wins.

The M's will pitch their ways into a WC conversation for a little bit before settling in right around 80 wins.

The A's will end up in the same area, 80 wins.

The Angels won't trade for the bat they need because it's f'n Bill Stoneman and it'll piss everyone off to no end. They'll continue to pitch amazingly and the hitting will improve just enough to be Quinlan-esque, instead of Mathis-like. Because of their unwillingness to trade the stupid amount of pitching prospects they have, we 'll see the Angels end up around 87 wins, instead of the 90+ they'd be capable of if they went out and landed Adam Lind and Ben Revere/Andre Ethier like they should've done.

But the good news is they'll bring Howie Kendrick back in free agency this next year, so that'll be a fun little storyline.

The Rangers will finish with a better record than the Mariners. Book it. 

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