2015 Angels Trade Deadline Targets: Nationals-Angels

[AngelsWin.com]

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer - 

Author’s Note: Two weeks after this was written, Alden Gonzalez reported that the Angels are “dangling” C.J. Wilson in trade talks. This lends credence to the idea that the Angels believe Andrew Heaney is ready to handle a rotation spot and provide similar production to Wilson.

If Jerry Dipoto decides to go for a young power bat, he may be put in the position of having to take a current 25-man roster asset and use that to acquire one or more pieces that can then be used in trade for said hitter(s).

One such piece is C.J. Wilson.

C.J. has approximately $11MM remaining on his contract this year and $20MM in 2016. There is a high probability that the Angels will want to trade Wilson before next season (his walk year) anyway so it makes some sense to shop him.

If you believe in WAR’s general predictive value, of a player’s worth, and expect Wilson to be worth about 3 WAR over the remainder of his contract, that would put his total value at approximately $22MM-28MM.

Even if you don’t believe in WAR you can simply look at a player like Jake Peavy who is the same age as C.J. and notice that he received 2/$24MM last offseason in the free agent market.

Because Wilson is a lefty (slightly higher demand) his net value, over the remainder of his contract, would appear to be about negative $5MM ($26MM - $31MM).

It would appear that the Angels, in order to pick up a good prospect or two, might need to absorb some of C.J.’s salary (preferably from this year only) to facilitate a trade.

Wilson has been strong against left-handed hitters this year with a solid 18.2% K-BB% and a 0.87 WHIP. Against right-handed hitters he has not fared nearly as well with a 10.6% K-BB% and a 1.27 WHIP.

However the Nationals are one of several teams that have not fared well against LHH’s in 2015. So far this year the Nationals pitching staff has fared poorly with a K-BB% of 9.4% which ranks 21st in the Majors.

In fact only one of their starters, Gio Gonzalez, is a LHP and he hasn’t performed well at all this year against LHH’s.

This idea may be a non-starter simply because the Nationals currently have Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister on the DL. However both have been struggling and it is a real possibility that they trade or DFA Fister who has been abysmal versus LHP this year.

Acquiring Wilson would allow the Nationals to front a full, brand label rotation and would improve their overall numbers versus lefty hitters. It could literally put them head and shoulders above every other rotation in baseball.

Additionally the Nationals are flirting with the Luxury Tax Threshold in 2015 so if the Angels ate some, or all, of the remainder of C.J.’s salary this year ($11MM) they would be able to pull a good prospect in trade.

Please keep in mind that trade deadline prices are much higher than offseason prices for players. Hypothetically Wilson as a trade deadline move only, probably has somewhere between $5MM-$10MM in surplus value to a team in need.

So who would the Angels want from the Nationals?

If the Angels do use C.J. as part of a larger trade to net a young bat like Kyle Schwarber or Khris Davis, for instance, they would very likely want a good, young pitcher.

Fortunately the Nationals have a deep system of pitching, particularly RHP.

Any of the following might be available in the right deal/package: Reynaldo Lopez, A.J. Cole, Joe Ross, Austin Voth, Aaron Barrett, Jefry Rodriguez, Felipe Rivero, Nicholas Piveta, Sammy Solis, Jake Johansen, John Simms, and Taylor Jordan.

Out of that group a Wilson trade might, if packaged properly, net Reynaldo Lopez but it will likely take more than C.J.

Beyond that Joe Ross, Austin Voth, Aaron Barrett, Felipe Rivero (LHP), Sammy Solis, and John Simms seem like the most likely candidates for a Wilson trade.

If I had to place some money down I’d think that C.J. could net Joe Ross or Austin Voth with Sammy Solis as an added player, assuming the Angels eat some of Wilson’s 2015 salary.

Notably trading C.J. would almost certainly clear out close to $20MM (depending on the trade negotiations) for 2016 and might clear out a bit of cash this year in 2015.

Payroll, for this year, would likely stay relatively neutral or might decrease based on cash considerations involved with a Wilson trade.

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[Guest]

No offense, but this type of speculation is pointless since it never comes to fruition; and in this case, I wouldn't want it to.

[Broad Street]

The Nats already have a rock solid rotation, and with Strasburg coming back theyre going to be even better. Saying they would trade FOR pitching help is a huge reach.

[DMVol]

I hope I'm wrong but I would be surprised if CJ has much trade value without us eating a ton of his money....doubt we do that again, after Hamilton....

[Ohtaniland]

Eating tons of salary......Im sure that Arte is getting tired of seeing the same menu every year.

[SoWhat]

The Nats already have a rock solid rotation, and with Strasburg coming back theyre going to be even better. Saying they would trade FOR pitching help is a huge reach.

Rock solid? Lol they have 3 starters with ERAs over 4. Strasburg had an ERA of 5.90, so how exactly is he gonna make them better?

Anyway, I'd take Joe Ross and flip him in a package for a bat.

[ettin]

The Nats already have a rock solid rotation, and with Strasburg coming back theyre going to be even better. Saying they would trade FOR pitching help is a huge reach.

Kody did you bother to read the part where pretty much their entire rotation is complete crap against left-handed hitters?

They may hold onto what they have and cross their fingers but one thing C.J. has done well is control lefty hitters, which may or may not have value to the Nat's.

Fister has been so bad not only against LHP but RHP as well and quite frankly adding C.J. would be an upgrade over him right now. Having C.J. in their pen or available to start in the playoffs would be useful too.

[ettin]

I hope I'm wrong but I would be surprised if CJ has much trade value without us eating a ton of his money....doubt we do that again, after Hamilton....

I do sincerely believe that if we ate half to all of his remaining 2015 salary that we could get a significant prospect back in return. As long as we are not paying his 2016 salary I think the Angels would be quite happy with that exchange.

Another reason the Nationals might be a partner in that situation too is that they are up near the Luxury Tax threshold as well for this season and having the Angels eat some of Wilson's 2015 salary would be beneficial to them (and notably might give the Angels a bit of leverage in trade negotiations being a big market team themselves).

[ettin]

Eating tons of salary......Im sure that Arte is getting tired of seeing the same menu every year.

All the more reason why a Wilson trade to the Nat's would be useful to the Front Office if they can stick the Nat's (or another team) with Wilson's full 2016 salary.

One way or the other Dipoto is going to do his best to move Wilson before next season and the trade deadline presents probably the best opportunity to trade him between now and then.

[Angelsjunky]

No offense, but this type of speculation is pointless since it never comes to fruition; and in this case, I wouldn't want it to.

 

I agree, which is why I almost never both with trade speculations, but ettin gets a kick out of it and does a good job of it, so who cares?

[nando714]

We are not making a trade.

Fully convinced

[ettin]

So rewind back about a month and a half ago and there was a LOT of trade talk on this board. Many people were speculating about this player or that (in particular there was a lot of talk about Ethier). The whole reason I started this series was because a lot of people on this board didn't see that there were options out there beyond Andre Ethier (as an example). The point of these articles is to point out that there are multiple options out there NOT to advocate a particular player in trade. I think some here believe that I am advocating a particular course of action and really I am trying to give some hope to those who may not see what is possibly available. That was my goal with these. You may disagree with some (or all) of my choices and that is fine.

[Jay]

We are not making a trade.

Fully convinced

So the trade deadline is July 31, correct? And shortly after that the season ticket holders are asked to renew? If the Angels don't make some sort of change and the season continues like this, they will likely lose some SSH's.

[Docwaukee]

fun stuff Robert.  

 

I don't feel like we match up all that well with Washington.  It appears they could use pitching, but they have a ton invested in their top 5 and they also have Roark to step in as needed.  Even with their struggles vs. lefties, I just don't see them investing money or players to bring in a player to replace someone they are paying a good chunk.  

[Broad Street]

Kody did you bother to read the part where pretty much their entire rotation is complete crap against left-handed hitters?

They may hold onto what they have and cross their fingers but one thing C.J. has done well is control lefty hitters, which may or may not have value to the Nat's.

Fister has been so bad not only against LHP but RHP as well and quite frankly adding C.J. would be an upgrade over him right now. Having C.J. in their pen or available to start in the playoffs would be useful too.

You really expect Fister to suck all year? Strasburg has always been good. They WILL make the postseason with what they have, and will trot out a pretty good postseason rotation. They've all pitched very well lately so I wouldn't expect any moves.

[ettin]

BTW, I'm really disappointed that no one caught my 'head and shoulders' comment in a Wilson-based trade speculation.... you guys are not on your toes!

[Hollyw00d]

WAR isn't a predictive stat

[m0nkey]

Jett Bandy for Bryce Harper.  Throw in Yarbrough if you must

[ettin]

WAR isn't a predictive stat

Incorrect word choice, yes.

[Mark68]

Strasburg already returned from the DL. In fact, today was his second start since returning.