Erick Aybar Leadoff

[mulwin444]

Moving guys in the order has very little impact on how they perform.

The problem with the Angels lineup is not the order of the hitters but that there aren't enough of them. It's hard to make a good lineup with 3 good hitters, 3 ok ones and 3 bad ones.

Bottom line is Aybar is not a great hitter...he's a good hitter in relation to the position he plays as he's been slightly above replacement-level.  I don't have a problem with Aybar the SS or Aybar the 6-9 hitter but as a lead-off hitter he's lacking.  I understand that he could be the "lead-off hitter" at some point during the game as the line-up flips but having him bat in front of Trout/Pujols often means they are batting with no one on base...especially when its an 8, 9, 1 trio of Ianetta, Joyce, and Aybar.  Some guys do not respond to that spot for whatever reason and his career numbers have demonstrated that he hits lower than his career numbers when slotted at lead-off.  I know we have limited options offesively but I think they at least audition some guys, sees who can respond as he's not an OBP/table setter.  As someone mentioned, Efren Navaro might be an interesting option as, although he doesn't hit for much power, he can work the count and handle the bat well.  Johnny G as well.  Or maybe move Calhoun back to the lead-off role for now as you would have a decent shot of having at least someone on base when either Trout or Pujols are hitting and maybe have Freese as clean-up as he has extra-base pop and is a 110 OPS+ hitter. 

[Mark68]

I still think Aybar and Giovatella are better suited swapping positions in the lineup. Aybar is better suited in the bottom third, and Johnny G is better suited (at least right now) at the top.

[stormngt]

Outside of the first inning what damn difference does it make both are immediately ahead of Trout.

I still think Aybar and Giovatella are better suited swapping positions in the lineup. Aybar is better suited in the bottom third, and Johnny G is better suited (at least right now) at the top.

[mulwin444]

Outside of the first inning what damn difference does it make both are immediately ahead of Trout.

Exactly...Johnny G responds to hitting 9th, I'd keep him there and bat Calhoun lead-off where was comfortable.  Something like:

 

1.  Calhoun

2.  Trout

3.  Pujols

4.  Freese

5.  Navarro

6.  Aybar

7.  Perez

8.  Kubitza

9.  Johnny G

 

Takes Joyce and Ianetta out of the line-up, who even after some improvement are still awful, and has some guys to get on base in front of Trout/Pujols at the beginning of the game and as the line-up turns over

[mtangelsfan]

One thing about this is that we have seen Pujols blow up with Calhoun in the four spot.

 

Do we really want to risk that?

[mulwin444]

One thing about this is that we have seen Pujols blow up with Calhoun in the four spot.

 

Do we really want to risk that?

The assumption though is that Pujols turned it around due to the "threat" of Calhoun batting behind him as opposed to Pujols just getting hot and it being just coincidence.  Hard to say.  I just can't imagine a pitcher being fearful of facing Calhoun versus Pujols.    Freese and Calhoun's OPS is basically the same (.733 versus .739) with Calhoun's OBP being better and Freese hitting with more extra base power.  Again, just my opinion, I don't think Pujols suddenly begins to slump just because Calhoun is not hitting behind him.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Scioscia's belief is that whoever hits in front of Trout is not going to be a work-the-count, draw-walks guy because pitchers won't let him.

If you're batting ahead of Trout, pitchers will come after you instead of nibbling, more so than if the same guy is batting in another spot.

That's why Calhoun was the perfect leadoff guy for hitting ahead of Trout. He wasn't up there looking for a walk. If he got strikes, he did some damage.

If they had two Calhouns, they'd be in good shape.

[Angel Oracle]

All I know is, Trout and Pujols have 36 HRs and only 71 rbis.

That cries out for a significant upgrade at the bottom 3 in the order AND in the leadoff spot.   At least TWO spots being upgraded.

 

I guess moving Calhoun back to leadoff and acquiring someone like Lind to hit behind Pujols could help, although LF would still be an eyesore.

Calhoun

Trout

Pujols

Lind

Freese

Aybar

Perez/Iannetta

Giovatella

Whoever is playing LF.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[mulwin444]

Scioscia's belief is that whoever hits in front of Trout is not going to be a work-the-count, draw-walks guy because pitchers won't let him.

If you're batting ahead of Trout, pitchers will come after you instead of nibbling, more so than if the same guy is batting in another spot.

That's why Calhoun was the perfect leadoff guy for hitting ahead of Trout. He wasn't up there looking for a walk. If he got strikes, he did some damage.

If they had two Calhouns, they'd be in good shape.

If that's the case and thought process, they should move Calhoun back to lead-off because Erick is not getting on base ahead of Trout...both now and historically.  Its just not working and never has with him.  In my opinion, it would be more valuable to have someone on base when Trout is hitting as opposed to having Trout on base waiting for some else to drive him in with Calhoun batting 4th.  Again, maybe it makes no difference at all but Calhoun was more productive in the lead-off roll and I don't necessarily believe he is "protecting" Pujols in clean-up spot.  Either way, the offense is pretty punchless but maybe it allows them to maximize the opportunity a bit more when people are on base. 

[mtangelsfan]

So Albert shouldn't be affected by who is batting behind him but Calhoun is affected by where he hits in the order?

[mulwin444]

So Albert shouldn't be affected by who is batting behind him but Calhoun is affected by where he hits in the order?

Calhoun has performed better hitting in front of one of the best players in baseball in the past abd since its been determined that he will see more fastballs, his linedrive rate indicates that he could benefit and take advantage of this opportunity from this spot more so than Aybar has to this point.  Calhoun can work a walk if needed, which is a weakness with Aybar, but is also a better hitter who can take advantage of the increase in fastballs.  On the flip side, while Trout may be benefitting a bit in terms of the types of pitches seen with a rejuvintated Pujols batting behind him, I am skeptical if pitchers are changing their approach to Pujols because Calhoun and his .739 OPS and 6 HRs is hitting behind him.  Again, just my opinion looking at the splits, but it seems more likely that Trout/Pujols would hit with someone on base if Johhny G/Calhoun were hitting 9/1 versus something like Ianetta/Aybar. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

Once a game.  I doubt there is even a run's worth of difference.

 

 

The lead off hitter comes up ahead of Trout and Pujols more than once per game. Usually 3 - 5 times...

[mtangelsfan]

The lead off hitter comes up ahead of Trout and Pujols more than once per game. Usually 3 - 5 times...

 

Aybar was hitting 9th regularly, so he's basically two ahead of trout for most of the game.  Like I said, debatable if you could science a run out of that for the entire season.

[stormngt]

The 9 hitter comes up before Trout and Pujols three or four times a game. One less that the leadoff hitter.

The lead off hitter comes up ahead of Trout and Pujols more than once per game. Usually 3 - 5 times...

[HeavenlyHalos]

Aybar was hitting 9th regularly, so he's basically two ahead of trout for most of the game.  Like I said, debatable if you could science a run out of that for the entire season.

I'll bite. Leadoff hitter gets a single to start the game, Trout follows with a homer. There is your one run.

[HeavenlyHalos]

Outside of the first inning what damn difference does it make both are immediately ahead of Trout.

I find it dumb that people say that it only happens once a game, as that is 20-25% of the at bats Trout and Pujols will see. That is significant enough in my view, especially with a crappy offense.

[stormngt]

And the difference of Tha OB% between the two are what? 50 points (just guessing). Now multiply that .05 with .25 or .2 (depending if Trout get 4 or 5 abs a game) that means .0125 or .010 . That is not very sigificant. Now add Trout 30% chance of getting with that extra runner.

That is .3% chance of getting a an extra run.

yes the debate is stupid!

I find it dumb that people say that it only happens once a game, as that is 20-25% of the at bats Trout and Pujols will see. That is significant enough in my view, especially with a crappy offense.

[Dick B Back]

Another shocking thread... Who cars where Aybar hits in the lineup since the guy that gets paid to make that decision is making that decision.

Aybar is a 270 guy and the redhead is a 280 guy with pop so now he's hitting in the middle of the lineup.

The problem is that hitters 6 through 9 (except Johnny G) are not hitting at all. The top of the lineup is not the problem.

[Hollyw00d]

The "every batter sucks so why change the lineup" argument is absolutely the stupidest crap I've ever read

[HeavenlyHalos]

And the difference of Tha OB% between the two are what? 50 points (just guessing). Now multiply that .05 with .25 or .2 (depending if Trout get 4 or 5 abs a game) that means .0125 or .010 . That is not very sigificant. Now add Trout 30% chance of getting with that extra runner.

That is .3% chance of getting a an extra run.

yes the debate is stupid!

 

 

I appreciate what you are trying to do, but it would be far more complicated than what you listed, including the abilities of the other hitters that would get a PA in the first inning, as well as base running stats (outs on bases, ability to go first to third, steals/SB%, etc.). So I will say it again, I want someone with a much higher ability to get on base in the 20-25% of the at bats that the 7-8-9 hitters won't have hitting in front of two players tied for the AL lead in home runs. Another example, the difference in plate appearances per season between leadoff and 9th is nearly 150. That is huge.

[Mark68]

I appreciate what you are trying to do, but it would be far more complicated than what you listed, including the abilities of the other hitters that would get a PA in the first inning, as well as base running stats (outs on bases, ability to go first to third, steals/SB%, etc.). So I will say it again, I want someone with a much higher ability to get on base in the 20-25% of the at bats that the 7-8-9 hitters won't have hitting in front of two players tied for the AL lead in home runs. Another example, the difference in plate appearances per season between leadoff and 9th is nearly 150. That is huge.

Not to mention that not only is there a benefit from having the higher OBP player bat higher in the lineup, there is also a benefit to having the lower OBP player bat lower in the lineup.

 

Thru game 63, the leadoff hitter had 56 more plate appearances (.889 per game) than the 9th hitter. Over the course of a 162 game season, that is 144 more plate appearances per year.

[HeavenlyHalos]

Good point about the benefit of having the lower OBP player having less opportunities too. And, yes, I used 150 as an approximate number, and would obviously be higher than the 144 pace if this team had a higher OBP collectively

[QuinlansMinion]

He tells his players to run without thinking about it, so they run into outs.  He makes horrible lineups that make no sense whatsoever.  Then to top it all off, he calls for the most idiotic plays ever during the game, doesnt bunt when it makes sense and does bizarre hit and runs that kill rallies.

 

This team is too talented to be in 3rd place.  We are behind the Texas freaking Rangers.  Wake up sheeple!  The higher ups in the Angels org. are lying to you.  Like I said earlier, any other manager and were in first.  Dont believe me?   Just watch.

Edited June 16, 2015 by QuinlansMinion

[Stradling]

Haha, sure we are.

[QuinlansMinion]

Haha, sure we are.

Is this in response to "we are too talented to be in 3rd place," ?  Because if you honestly dont believe that I dont know what to tell you.  Look around baseball and get an idea for what kind of competition were facing.  We have the best player in the world, a gold glove 1st basemen who is playing like a bonafide superstar this season, a pretty good 3rd wheel in Calhoun, and some other decent complimentary pieces.  As a SS Aybar is right up there with the best of them offensively, although hes not a leadoff hitter.  Then we have a shut down back end of the bullpen.  

 

Im not sure how much more talent you think we can assemble on this team.  It has some flaws but EVERY team in baseball has flaws.  It doesnt help that we are 26th in stolen base % due in large part to horrible management and completely dumb hit and run calls.  But you go ahead and stick to your opinion.  Im sure we just need a couple more all stars and maybe another ace or two and then just maybe we might have a talented team.