No Need to Panic (Yet)

[stormngt]

Juice

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[Angelsjunky]

 

WTF how is it that Nelson Cruz and Albert Pujols were born only 5 months apart in 1980 but........

 

2015 Cruz .333 / 10hr's / 22rbi's / 1.151ops

2015 Pujols .203 / 3hr's / 9rbi's / .654ops

 

 

My answer is going to get someone upset, probably Stradling: I don't think Albert Pujols was born in 1980. My guess would be sometime between 1976 and '78. Let's say 1977. That would make him 38.

 

Now take a look at his career and add 3 years to each season. His decline pattern makes much more sense for a player as great as he was. For a player as good as Albert was through 2010 or so, he has had one of the worst declines in his early 30s in baseball history. But if you add three years, it makes more sense and is closer to other great hitters. Albert started to dip in 2011 when he was supposedly 31, which would be very young for a great player to significantly slip. Now if he was actually 34? Makes more sense.

 

Or look at last year. Those numbers look more like what Albert should be hitting at age 37, not 34. 2011 looks like age 34 because, well, it might have been.

[Stradling]

I'm not upset I just don't think it makes a lot of sense. He went to high school here in the states. Now if he was some amazing player coming out of high school, then I could see why you would say that. He was drafted in the 400's, so in my mind it doesn't really pass the smell test. If he was 3 years older, don't you think he would have been so dominating in high school that he would have been a first or second round pick? I totally get what you are saying as it relates to his age trajectory, but think about the foresight you would need at the age of 19. You would have to know you would be good at baseball, but not amazing until you reach the minors. So you come to the states and say, "hey, I want to go to high school for three more years" instead of not having to go to high school at all. Refresh my memory, when was the last time you knew at 19 year old that loved school. Obviously, because he isn't performing people will try to make sense of it, can't it simply be he broke down earlier than other great players? Why does it have to be some conspiracy? Also, after 911 and the US cracked down on all of this stuff, and we started finding out the real age of those guys, why didn't we hear anything about Albert then, I guess because he was a US citizen. It isn't something I care to debate, your argument is incredibly convincing, I'm not going to lie. I'll wait until it comes out that he is, then I will just have to eat crow.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I'm not upset I just don't think it makes a lot of sense. He went to high school here in the states. Now if he was some amazing player coming out of high school, then I could see why you would say that. He was drafted in the 400's, so in my mind it doesn't really pass the smell test. If he was 3 years older, don't you think he would have been so dominating in high school that he would have been a first or second round pick? I totally get what you are saying as it relates to his age trajectory, but think about the foresight you would need at the age of 19. You would have to know you would be good at baseball, but not amazing until you reach the minors. So you come to the states and say, "hey, I want to go to high school for three more years" instead of not having to go to high school at all. Refresh my memory, when was the last time you knew at 19 year old that loved school. Obviously, because he isn't performing people will try to make sense of it, can't it simply be he broke down earlier than other great players? Why does it have to be some conspiracy? Also, after 911 and the US cracked down on all of this stuff, and we started finding out the real age of those guys, why didn't we hear anything about Albert then, I guess because he was a US citizen. It isn't something I care to debate, your argument is incredibly convincing, I'm not going to lie. I'll wait until it comes out that he is, then I will just have to eat crow.

 

I agree with both of you really. Albert's decline can easily explained by him being a few years older. But if you add those years in then you have to explain what becomes an incredibly odd start to his life in America and his career as a baseball player.

[Blarg]

they were born 5 Dominican months apart

That made me laugh.

[Puget Sound Angel]

We have almost made it through April.

[LAAMike]

I'm not upset I just don't think it makes a lot of sense. He went to high school here in the states. Now if he was some amazing player coming out of high school, then I could see why you would say that. He was drafted in the 400's, so in my mind it doesn't really pass the smell test. If he was 3 years older, don't you think he would have been so dominating in high school that he would have been a first or second round pick? I totally get what you are saying as it relates to his age trajectory, but think about the foresight you would need at the age of 19. You would have to know you would be good at baseball, but not amazing until you reach the minors. So you come to the states and say, "hey, I want to go to high school for three more years" instead of not having to go to high school at all. Refresh my memory, when was the last time you knew at 19 year old that loved school. Obviously, because he isn't performing people will try to make sense of it, can't it simply be he broke down earlier than other great players? Why does it have to be some conspiracy? Also, after 911 and the US cracked down on all of this stuff, and we started finding out the real age of those guys, why didn't we hear anything about Albert then, I guess because he was a US citizen. It isn't something I care to debate, your argument is incredibly convincing, I'm not going to lie. I'll wait until it comes out that he is, then I will just have to eat crow.

Didn't he have a stint at a local Community College in Missouri?

[Stradling]

Maybe.

[Angel Oracle]

He was drafted out of a community college.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

After tomorrow, assuming no venting, I complete my first month during a regular season sans Halos venting.

Hasn't been easy, but I wanted to do it just as a change of pace.

And you did it without a self ban. Well done AO. Golf clap.

[stormngt]

Your dead on. He would have had to lie about his age when he was 15. 19 year Olds lie about their age all the time. However that lie is usually saying their 21 not 16.

I'm not upset I just don't think it makes a lot of sense. He went to high school here in the states. Now if he was some amazing player coming out of high school, then I could see why you would say that. He was drafted in the 400's, so in my mind it doesn't really pass the smell test. If he was 3 years older, don't you think he would have been so dominating in high school that he would have been a first or second round pick? I totally get what you are saying as it relates to his age trajectory, but think about the foresight you would need at the age of 19. You would have to know you would be good at baseball, but not amazing until you reach the minors. So you come to the states and say, "hey, I want to go to high school for three more years" instead of not having to go to high school at all. Refresh my memory, when was the last time you knew at 19 year old that loved school. Obviously, because he isn't performing people will try to make sense of it, can't it simply be he broke down earlier than other great players? Why does it have to be some conspiracy? Also, after 911 and the US cracked down on all of this stuff, and we started finding out the real age of those guys, why didn't we hear anything about Albert then, I guess because he was a US citizen. It isn't something I care to debate, your argument is incredibly convincing, I'm not going to lie. I'll wait until it comes out that he is, then I will just have to eat crow.

[Ohtaniland]

So Nelson Cruz has to be lying about his age because he claims to be just 5 months younger than Albert. Cruz is hitting like he's in his prime.

[Stradling]

So Nelson Cruz has to be lying about his age because he claims to be just 5 months younger than Albert. Cruz is hitting like he's in his prime.

Yes that's the ONLY thing it could be.

[Angelsjunky]

Look, I'm not saying that I absolutely think he's older than he says he is, just that it is a possibility - and one that would explain his rapid decline.

 

But good post, Stradling - you build a strong argument. It doesn't negate the possibility of a year or two age difference, though.

[vlad27]

Johnny G. is my little Italian Eckstein.

agreed - and I can say that being a 5'8" Italian myself

[HaloMagic]

People saying that Pujols wouldn't lie about being older so he could go to school more are acting like Pujols would've been the one to come up with the plan.

For the record, I don't think he's older than he says. I just think he sucks.