Dipoto's next big decision going forward

[Reveille1984]

Heyward's probably going to get close to a $200M deal this offseason.  25 year old 4-5 WAR players don't grow on trees in free agency, despite how undervalued he seems to be by some people.  It's not like he's an offensive schlub or anything.

 

Only six outfielders have put up more value during the past three seasons than Heyward, and two are McCutchen and Trout.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Based on WAR which includes defense that may be true but offensively he's come nowhere near the potential many expected he would after his first season.  Not counting this season (struggling big time so far) or his first season his OPS+ is at an average of 108.  For comparison purposes Kole's OPS+ the previous 2 seasons was at an average of 125. Heyward's HR totals have declined each of the last 2 seasons, as has his SLG and he's a career .261 hitter.  I like the guy and he's young so if you're going to throw a ridiculous long term contract offer better to go after him than a 32 year old but I don't like him at 20M a year, especially for the Angels.    

 

Edit - I was curious so I looked it up and according to ESPN last year Heyward ranked 76 out of 124 players (#125 beginning pitchers) in MLB for offensive WAR.  Some of the guys above him - Leonyis Martin, AJ Pollock, Pablo Sandoval, Chris Iannetta, Dee Gordon and Trevor Plouffe just to name a few.  Heyward ranked 5th in defensive WAR so using WAR as a metric half of his value in 2014 came from his defense.

Edited April 24, 2015 by Catwhoshatinthehat

[nikkachez]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/2016-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-2.html

 

According to MLBTR, he doesn't get a QO. It might have to do with him being a Cuban free agent signee.

Hmmmm interesting. That changes my opinion a bit hahaha

[SoWhat]

Newcomb for Tulo

Sign Heyward

Heyward

Trout

Tulo

Pujols

Calhoun

Edited April 24, 2015 by SoWhat

[beatlesrule]

I'm pretty sure the Angels FO knows the weakness of the offense and how old it's getting. We all pretty much thought that Pujols would just now start his decline and I don't think anyone saw Hamilton being this bad. It's still too early to give up on some of the bats.  Cron and Joyce will hopefully get better as the season goes on and I can't see CI continuing to not hit. Aybar is a pretty consistent player so he should be okay.  Maybe Dipoto signs a FA pitcher or 2 and uses some of the young pitching to trade for a bat.  I agree that guys like Heyward and Upton will get close to or more than 200 million and the Angels don't need another contract like that.  Young pitching is very valuable so I think the club is in pretty good shape.

[Dick B Back]

200 million for a guy whose best hitting season was at AA. No thanks.

[HeavenlyHalos]

Heyward 10/$200 million? He is good, but I really don't see him getting that contract.

[mrwicked]

Good thread. I agree that another bona fide, top talent position player would be the best thing this team could get going forward. I am guessing the only way to get that talent is to pay through the nose in free agency (e.g., Justin Upton).

Then again, the Giants have done well for themselves without any superstar talent, let alone two such players.

 

Umm..

Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner. 

[Mark68]

Umm..

Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner. 

I'll grant you Buster.

 

Panda was never a superstar.

 

Lincecum, Cain, and now Bumgarner have had two-three seasons each where they could be considered borderline superstars, however, not simultaneously.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

heyward is far from an impact bat. he's a mediocre hitter, with a good glove. i bought into the hype when he first came up, but his numbers never really impress.

 

This is one big reason that the Braves traded him to St. Louis. People within the organization believe that Heyward has already peaked, and it's just downhill from here.

[Hollyw00d]

lol out of that list only posey and bumgarner are "superstars"

Edited April 24, 2015 by Hollyw00d

[Hubs]

The next big young hitter for the Angels has to play one of four positions: LF, C, 2B, 1B. Or he could be a DH. 

 

I'd also love it to be a guy under 28. But players are rare to get to FA that soon. Finally, I'd love him to be left handed. 

 

The Angels lineup in 2016 looks a bit different than in 2015, but not significantly different.

 

RF Calhoun

CF Trout

1B/DH Pujols

LF ?

 

1B/DH Cron?

3B Kubitza

SS Aybar 

C ?

 

2B Giavotella / Yarbourough

 

Baldoquin is likely to be up at some point in 2016. Featherston and Yarborough are candidates for the 2B job as well. 

 

in 2017

 

RF Calhoun

CF Trout

1B/DH Pujols

LF ?

1B/DH Cron?

3B Kubitza

SS Baldoquin? 

C ?

2B Giavotella 

 

Now, the LF spot is clearly the spot that can use the next great hitter. Except the Angels do have a player who is paid a lot of money to man that spot, in Josh Hamilton. 

 

He's under contract for the next three seasons including this one. He's left handed. But he's not young and has not done well in his first two seasons here. Mainly due to injury. Now with the drug issues, that is another question mark.

 

Young hitters are more common in the OF and at 1B. And those are typically the positions left handers occupy.

 

We have Kubitza as a left handed bat coming in to take a righty's spot in Freese. Then a righty comes in to take the Switch hitting spot of Aybar. 

 

So I think they still need a left handed bat.

 

And there is nearly no one out there. 

[Hollyw00d]

I would prefer they go the giants route in FA and sign under-the-radar but still solid bats like angel pagan, Michael morse, Justin Maxwell, etc.  at least until albert is off the books, which is a long way away, but it's best tthat this organization avoid big contracts for a long time, if not altogether.

 

the giants haven't signed any big name guys in a long time, unless you count hunter pence, and they've done pretty well.  Their offense isn't top of the league, but it's been good enough to win a lot of games for a long time now

[Chris]

CARGO

[Docwaukee]

Not sure why you say there's no impact.  Kubitza, Bandy, Yarbrough, Cron, all those guys can be average or better offensively at their respective positions. There aren't any Trouts in there but definitely a few Aybars and that can go a long way.  Just ask the Giants, Royals and Cardinals. 

I think we differ on the definition of impact.  Average or perhaps a little above isn't impact from my standpoint.  

 

Impact is a legit middle of the order bat.  

 

Don't get me wrong, the Aybars and Iannettas of the world are great to have and are complementary to a lineup and I agree that guys like Kubitza, Bandy and Yarbrough can be those types.  Outside chance Cron can be a #5 hitter.  

 

None of those guys will ever have the chops to hit behind Trout.  

 

And I am not talking about this year or even next.  I think Pujols will come around and be fine for at least the rest of this year and the next.  The other complementary pieces will start hitting soon enough.  I am more concerned about 2017 and beyond when Albert is 37.  

 

Our 2017 lineup is 

Calhoun

Trout 

Pujols

Cron

Kubitza

SS??  Maybe Baldoquin but I doubt it.

Bandy/Perez

Green in LF or some other guy who is currently in the minors?

Gia or Yarbrough or Sherm?  

 

To me, that is missing something.  

[SoWhat]

Holy shit, someone really mentioned Yarbrough, Bandy and Cron as impact bats? I'm done here.

[Hollyw00d]

yeah that's scotty.  he believes hitters should put up the same numbers in the majors as they do in the minors

[HeavenlyHalos]

Now, the LF spot is clearly the spot that can use the next great hitter. Except the Angels do have a player who is paid a lot of money to man that spot, in Josh Hamilton. 

 

He's under contract for the next three seasons including this one. He's left handed. But he's not young and has not done well in his first two seasons here. Mainly due to injury. Now with the drug issues, that is another question mark.

 

lol, nope. He played in 151 games during the 2013 season.

[mrwicked]

I'll grant you Buster.

 

Panda was never a superstar.

 

Lincecum, Cain, and now Bumgarner have had two-three seasons each where they could be considered borderline superstars, however, not simultaneously.

 

i wont dispute that - panda is definitely a playoffs superstar though. and a very good 3B the rest of the season (i'd take that tradeoff).

timmeh was an otherworldy superstar, could have retired a few years ago and would still get HOF votes, but obviously has fallen.

bumgarner is on his way, as cain is/was, just has to stay healthy.

[Hollyw00d]

there's no way in hades lincecum is making it to the HOF or even getting votes

 

outside of one season, cain has been a slightly above average pitcher

 

panda had two good seasons, and the rest of the time has been below average and/or injured.

Edited April 24, 2015 by Hollyw00d

[Dave Saltzer]

IMHO, the only possible impact bat that is near major-league ready is Kubitza. And I don't think of him as an impact bat per se, more of an above-average hitter in the Kole Calhoun model.

 

I foresee two possible free agent hitting targets: Heyward and Cespedes. Cespedes could be attractive because I think he'll sign for less than Heyward, has no qualifying offer attached, and will only turn 30 this October.

 

I also see one possible pitching target. Let's face it, David Price will be priced (pun intended) way out of Arte's comfort level. But what about Johnny Cueto?

 

I understand why Dipoto has gone after young, controllable pitching talent. And that helps the pitching depth immensely. But how nice would it be to have a 1-2 punch of Cueto/Richards? He'll turn 30 next February, so he's still relatively young. Cueto might actually be a good trade target this July, as well.

 

Another pitching target could be Samardzija.

 

I'm sorry. I just don't see Cron ever being an impact bat. I don't even see him being as good as Trumbo.

I was thinking about Cespedes as well, but, I don't see it happening because Dipoto is a big believer in OB%, and Cespedes is not good in that regard. 

 

What I would like to see is a true leadoff hitter so we can drop Calhoun and Trout 1 spot each. In that vein, I'd go after Dexter Fowler, if he's still available and then look for power in other areas.

[bloodbrother]

Heyward's bat is pretty similar to Calhoun's, which isn't bad but again, the price for that isn't worth what he'll command in FA IMO.

 

In a perfect world, Albert is batting 5th or 6th in future seasons.

[Hollyw00d]

I like fowler as well, problem is we already have enough outfielders

[Hollyw00d]

we really need to find a 3B replacement, and a SS replacement once aybar leaves.  the system is absolutely bare at those positions

[Dave Saltzer]

I like fowler as well, problem is we already have enough outfielders

What if Hamilton is gone and Joyce isn't resigned?