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Nate Smith keeps doing it...


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IP, does Smith's lack of strikeouts concern you at all?

 

Down the road, sure... But not while he's still trying to figure out the parks/league.   If after 10 or so games he's still sporting a Michael Roth like K/9 or he's struggling to miss bats then it's worth taking another look.  

 

The announcers last night said the wind was blowing left to right, I checked the box score after the game to check the wind velocity and they had it at 16 MPH.    He worked inside to RHBs, outside to LHBs and uncharacteristically he didn't throw many change-ups.  So, it seems he was doing Nate Smith things and trying to think his way through as he learns the new league and parks.  

 

There was a lot of weak contact, a blooper down the line and ball Grant Green played into a double in LF.    The one really well hit ball I think was by Danny Dorn, I believe (I may have him mixed up with Drury)...   Dorn BTW was a former Fullerton Titan, so Angel fans with ties to CSF may remember him.

 

Anyway, too early to have any opinions.  I still expect the park in SLC to be a real challenge for him as I expect the environment there to take some of the bite off his curve.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Scotty, you're totally underestimating Nate Smith. Trust me. 

 

All of the Angels scouts love this guy. They tell me he's our own in-house Andrew Heaney.

 

He's hitting 91-93 MPH with his fastball regularly which for a southpaw is great because he locates his stuff very well.

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Watched him pitch last Tuesday. He struggled early but then settled down and pitched solidly. He doesn't look super impressive butseems to get the job done. He was not hitting ninety at all though

 

I noticed the velocity too.  I didn't know if he was pitching differently or if he just couldn't ramp it up as he has been.

 

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them shut him down soon, between the time at the Pan Am games and AA and now AAA he's about 20 innings above his 118 innings of last year.  I wonder if they will cap him at 150 or so innings and shut him down to avoid fatigue leading to an injury.  

I can't imagine they will let Newcomb pitch more than 135 or so innings this year..  At least I hope they don't.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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  • 3 weeks later...

Smith finally had a good game at the park in SLC -- but the environment again played a part...   Wind seemed to be blowing in from RF --  so, the park likely HELPED him.

 

Shoemaker and Heaney both had awful ERA's in Triple-A before they were promoted.

 

There's nothing to see here. I wish the Angels played in the International League where ballparks are that of the norm.

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Shoemaker and Heaney both had awful ERA's in Triple-A before they were promoted.

 

There's nothing to see here. I wish the Angels played in the International League where ballparks are that of the norm.

 

You're preaching to the choir....    

I'm also in favor of them limiting him to 5 IP or 75 pitches the rest of the year.   No more Jason Dickson workload horror stories.

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AAA Salt Lake sucks to pitch in. I'm pretty sure Trevor Reckling still has nightmares of that place. The angels ball parks in general are just kind of an odd assortment. Every field there's an adjustment to be made when scouting prospects. They don't just have a neutral field in a neutral league.

Example would be Nate Smith. Decent pitching prospect, was so much better in AA than he actually is, but at the same time his AAA numbers aren't indicative of his talent and refinement. So he's somewhere in the middle.

Edited by ScottyA_MWAH
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AAA Salt Lake sucks to pitch in. I'm pretty sure Trevor Reckling still has nightmares of that place. The angels ball parks in general are just kind of an odd assortment. Every field there's an adjustment to be made when scouting prospects. They don't just have a neutral field in a neutral league.

Example would be Nate Smith. Decent pitching prospect, was so much better in AA than he actually is, but at the same time his AAA numbers aren't indicative of his talent and refinement. So he's somewhere in the middle.

 

You do realize that Smith only logged 39 innings at the home park in AA .vs 60+ on the road -- his ERA on the road was 1.89.   The park in Arkansas wasn't as big of a factor for him in AA as one would have thought -- the reality is he was a bit underwhelming because he wasn't more  dominant at home.   In essence, the exact opposite of what you're trying to say about his AA performance this season.  Tell you who HAS seen the sort of home away splits in AA you are talking about -- Sean Newcomb.  Newcomb's road ERA is more than twice as high away as it is at home in Arkansas but I'd argue the sample sizes for both Newcomb in AA and Smith in AAA make it difficult to make any real judgement using analytical data.

 

People can hold different opinions about a player's skill set and potential, but numbers tend to be far more black and white.  As I predicted, SLC has been murderous for Smith, but his road numbers in AAA are in line with what he's done throughout his minor league career...    1.15 WHIP .vs 1.17 career.  A .214 average allowed .vs .229 career.   Ultimately I personally am not really looking at the numbers as much as how he's looked so far and IMO he looks tired.  Anyway... while we are interpreting the numbers differently, I think we both see Smith as something other than what the numbers might indicate he is.  When push comes to shove, it's hard to really put a finger on why Smith has been as successful as he was prior to his uptick in velocity earlier this year.  His stuff was good enough, but he pitched much better than anyone would have predicted.  The question for him next year is how far "pitchability" can carry him.  

 

Anyway, that fatigue and loss of stuff is a greater indication of what Smith is and isn't than any numbers..  Again, compared to Newcomb he looks spent, totally gassed..   The divide in physical ability is what separates the two, and elevates Newcomb to a completely different level.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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