Nate Smith keeps doing it...

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

I don't really see him comparing to either of them.  

 

I give Saunders a lot of credit for having had as good a MLB career as he did, he was nothing remotely close the the pitcher he had been in college, there was an almost instant drop in velocity after he was drafted and the change from NCAA to MiLB balls really hurt his breaking pitches.

 

Awful curveball. 

 

Ah Big Game Joe. I loved Saunders. He was one of my favorite players. He played with grit and pitched beyond his limit. Stepped up big for us. Good dude, too.

[Inside Pitch]

Ah Big Game Joe. I loved Saunders. He was one of my favorite players. He played with grit and pitched beyond his limit. Stepped up big for us. Good dude, too.

 

Grit is a good way to put it.  He basically ground out a MLB career with very marginal stuff.  Had he still been throwing 93 and still had that hard biting slider he would flash in college, he had front end potential but they seemed to abandon him when he left VT.  

 

Anyway, it was that grit and bullish mentality that let me move beyond my disappointment at our drafting him over a HS lefty I had watched pitch in several showcases and who I was sure would be a front end starter.  A guy from SD named Cole Hamels.  

[Inside Pitch]

BTW -- Nate Smith to SLC......    This is where we may see him have some issues -- a curveball up in SLC can go pretty far....

[Second Base]

That's just the thing, Saunders made marginal stuff play up with his competitiveness and willingness to attack. He had an average to slightly above average fastball for a lefty, inconsistent breaking ball and good change up. That pretty closely resembles Nate Smith. His stuff doesn't pop out in the least, but he keeps doing it.

[Inside Pitch]

That's just the thing, Saunders made marginal stuff play up with his competitiveness and willingness to attack. He had an average to slightly above average fastball for a lefty, inconsistent breaking ball and good change up. That pretty closely resembles Nate Smith. His stuff doesn't pop out in the least, but he keeps doing it.

 

Smith's curves (both of them) and change are well ahead of what Saunders had -- and if he keeps his velocity where he has it now, he's about 2 MPH above where Saunders pitched at.   You seem to downplay what Smith does, I don't really get it -- particularly after the lengths you went to in order to talk up Michael Roth.   It's so pronounced that I sometimes wonder if we are watching the same pitcher. Smith's biggest issue will be keeping the curveball down, because when he misses, they can torque it.  Still, he routinely makes hitters look awfully stupid.  There is no denying MLB hitters aren't as easily fooled, but Smith seems to be getting better.  

 

Arkansas Travelers â€@ARTravs  Jul 31

.@Smithsonian15 is through 3 scoreless w 4 Ks. Smith has not allowed a run over his last 20 IP & has an ERA of 0.58 last 47IP! #Angels #MiLB

 

I'm looking forward to seeing how he handles pitching in SLC --  I'm expecting some of the same struggles Nick Adenhart had.  Adenhart BTW is who I would most closely comp him to.  92 MPH FB, change, big curve... but not nearly as big as Adenhart.

 

Smith may not be a sure thing, but he's hardly been squeaking by or marginally fooling people. He's had stretches of flat out dominance.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[nando714]

4 runs on 5 hits in his first inning of work for AAA SLC

[Inside Pitch]

4 runs on 5 hits in his first inning of work for AAA SLC

 

88 degrees -- winds at 18 MPH to the OF....  The numbers are about as meaningful as Heaney's AAA stats.      All in all it went better than I expected...  ended up going 5 innings allowing 6 runs.   

 

At least now he knows what he's up against park wise.

Edited August 6, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[Second Base]

IP, I like Smith, more than I did Roth, but I'm still not seeing what you are apparently and really feel like expectations should be tempered. If you can't take my assessment at face value, then take Ben Badler. He described Smith as nothing that jumps out. Even with the improvement in velocity and refinement, he's still just emerging as a fringe SP prospect.

At his best, Joe was 91-93, which is where Smith has been at his best. Their off speed pitches seem pretty comparable.

You're right about the context of his numbers in SLC. We've seen how they've obscured Shoemaker and Heaney's numbers. But then again his home park in AA had the mirror effect. I suspect that Smith will likely be ok in AAA, and in a year or two break in as #5 SP before settling as a #4. I hope that can be with the Angels, but I also suspect other teams will target him in a trade. Bad players don't get traded.

[Inside Pitch]

IP, I like Smith, more than I did Roth, but I'm still not seeing what you are apparently and really feel like expectations should be tempered. If you can't take my assessment at face value, then take Ben Badler. He described Smith as nothing that jumps out. Even with the improvement in velocity and refinement, he's still just emerging as a fringe SP prospect.

At his best, Joe was 91-93, which is where Smith has been at his best. Their off speed pitches seem pretty comparable.

You're right about the context of his numbers in SLC. We've seen how they've obscured Shoemaker and Heaney's numbers. But then again his home park in AA had the mirror effect. I suspect that Smith will likely be ok in AAA, and in a year or two break in as #5 SP before settling as a #4. I hope that can be with the Angels, but I also suspect other teams will target him in a trade. Bad players don't get traded.

I had written a response full of bonafides, name dropping, and links to some of Badler's most off-base scouting evaluations but it seems rather pointless and boorish... Instead I'll go a more civil route and ask that you please practice what you preach. Stop assuming that everyone else who posts here sits at home eating bon-bons, looking up stats on the internet and has no clue what to look for or an actual history with scouting.

I have a very vivid memory of Joe Saunders and who he was and wasn't. The only time he consistently worked above 90 MPH was maybe 07 and or 08, and when he did his FB would flatten out -- it tended to be counter-productive. If you are saying he would touch 91-93, then, fine -- but we both know Smith works in the range and touches 94. IMO, Saunders is a poor comp for Smith other than he was a lefty and fits the profile of a number 4 or 5 pitcher. I'm not trying to be dismissive of Saunders, I will forever be impressed with how his career played out given what he lost on his way to the Majors. The VA Tech version of Joe Saunders was impressive. But I don't see Saunders, not the stuff nor the way he actually uses his stuff.  I don't think Smith could get away with throwing as many FBs as Saunders did, he's much more of a flyball guy long term IMO. Joe really did have a set of brass balls.

I'm not sure I need temper my expectations with Smith because I'm not looking for him to be an ace or even a TORP type of pitcher. I view him in much the same manner I did Doug Fister and Chris Young, guys who were undervalued by people overly caught up with radar gun readings -- that's not to say I see those guys as comps, just that how they pitched was similarly dismissed in favor of the more obvious tools analysis. Anyway, I'm pulling for Smith, I enjoy watching him pitch, I find myself laughing at how he sets guys up at times... but I'm pretty aware of what obstacles lie ahead for him.... SLC is going to be a challenge for him. His curveballs tend to set up everything else he does and the enviroment there will likely impact the pitch. It's not even that it's a great pitch, it's just how he uses it to change the eye level of hitters... in short.. my biggest concern with Smith is how pitching in SLC may impact how he pitches...

Lastly, Smith's performance in AA in that park is actually what tempers my expectations. I liked how he finished, but I had hoped to see a wee bit more in some areas. It's possible based on how he closed out his stay in AA that he needed to get acclimated to the environment but statistically speaking there were things I would have wanted to see him do sooner than he did in order for me to fully buy into his actual stuff and it's ability to play at the highest levels.  I expect Smith to struggle a bit at SLC,... I expect people will look at the traditional stats and write him off accordingly. But if he retains his velocity I expect him to do better in Anaheim than his AAA numbers will likely suggest.

Edited August 6, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[Second Base]

I think some of the tone is lost in the translation. I'm sorry if I came across as condescending at all, it wasn't my intention, and I completely understand why you felt the need to be defensive.

You clearly view Smith as a special prospect (or at least better than I or anyone else is giving him credit for) and I'm happy about that. I like when fans are excited over these kids.

[Inside Pitch]

I think some of the tone is lost in the translation. I'm sorry if I came across as condescending at all, it wasn't my intention, and I completely understand why you felt the need to be defensive.

You clearly view Smith as a special prospect (or at least better than I or anyone else is giving him credit for) and I'm happy about that. I like when fans are excited over these kids.

 

Special?

 

You or anyone else eh?    LOL..  Oh boy....   

 

You really are quite humorous.

Edited August 7, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[Second Base]

I am not aware of anyone that has as high of an opinion for Smith as you. But that's not a bad thing IP. Call it like you see it.

I did with Calhoun and Richards and I still do with Cron, even after everyone pretty much gave up on him. Time will tell if our assessments are accurate.

[Second Base]

Also, if you'll reference this little gem of an article I penned (really kidding, I hate player comps, don't put any stock in this) http://monkeywithahalo.com/2015-articles/angels-top-30-prospect-player-comps.html

You'll see that the best comparison I could create for Nate Smith was actually Mark Buehrle. Make what you will of that.

[Inside Pitch]

I am not aware of anyone that has as high of an opinion for Smith as you. But that's not a bad thing IP. Call it like you see it.

I did with Calhoun and Richards and I still do with Cron, even after everyone pretty much gave up on him. Time will tell if our assessments are accurate.

 

Then you should really talk to more people because I can't imagine you run into many people under the employ of MLB teams while watching MiLB.tv games on your computer at home, and there is only so much insight that can be gained from reading twitter.  

 

Don't get me wrong.... I don't think amateur prospect hounds and cute little "bloggers" are incapable of astute observations, but let's be real here... they aren't anymore qualified than any other other "fan", despite your attempts to paint yourself as being better than them.  Also, can you please stop acting as if having been high on Calhoun and Richards somehow validates your "scouting".   You didn't "call" shit.... half the people who post in the minor league forum were very high on those guys.  To that end, Dochalo, Ettin, myself -- we all posted at length about Richards and why there was reason to believe he had massive upside -- there were a large number of people who were certain Matt Shoemaker was a good bet to be a quality SP too.  Kaleb Cowart is another guy MANY people here have stuck with.   Grats on being a fan, Bro!  

 

Look, I think this back and forth has pretty much reached the end..  I explained to you what I see in Smith, you ignored all of it, then tell me I think he's "special" and pop off with the same self aggrandizing BS you always do.....  Its boring. 

Edited August 7, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[Second Base]

You know IP, that's one of the cool parts about being me, I can just keep watching, and keep writing, and keep discussing prospects all day long. From that alone, there is information gleaned, whether you believe the opinion formed to be legitimate or not.

As for calling it, FanGraphs seems to think I did - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-wasnt-kole-calhoun-a-prospect/

[m0nkey]

Sorry to jump in but I don't find it boring at all

[Inside Pitch]

Sorry to jump in but I don't find it boring at all

 

Drama!!!!!  /popcrorn

[Stradling]

Please continue

[Tyler]

You know IP, that's one of the cool parts about being me, I can just keep watching, and keep writing, and keep discussing prospects all day long. From that alone, there is information gleaned, whether you believe the opinion formed to be legitimate or not.

As for calling it, FanGraphs seems to think I did - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-wasnt-kole-calhoun-a-prospect/

Is Garrett Wilson your pen name?

[Tyler]

You know IP, that's one of the cool parts about being me, I can just keep watching, and keep writing, and keep discussing prospects all day long. From that alone, there is information gleaned, whether you believe the opinion formed to be legitimate or not.

As for calling it, FanGraphs seems to think I did - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-wasnt-kole-calhoun-a-prospect/

Is Garrett Wilson your pen name?

[ettin]

Saltzer, Richter, get your butts in here and take your credit too!

[Second Base]

Is Garrett Wilson your pen name?

 

I've been noticing your posts have been duplicates lately.  Weird.  Anyway, nope, I still go under Scott Allen, but Garrett's the supreme overlord of MWAH, and thus what I write falls under his domain.

 

Also, yes- Saltzer deserves credit for that too. 

 

In terms of Calhoun, the reaction of everyone at the minor league field told me a lot about how he was actually viewed by talent evaluators and players alike.  The minor league fields in ST are usually pretty chill, with an even mix of coaches and families in the metal bleachers.  Kole, Conger and Trout were all getting some work in on this particular day, so understandably, there had to be a dozen scouts and front office personnel from various teams present.  Hank and Mike (along with Romine) had taken to an empty field with a coach for an additional BP round, yet the bleachers stayed full.  I was sitting next to Trevor Reckling at the time who was manning a radar gun and scorekeeping when Kole came up.  Everyone in the bleachers sat quiet, some of the scouts stood up against the fence.  Kole takes the second pitch to deep CF off the wall, legs out a triple out of it.  Then there's a fury of texting and scribbles before normal conversation resumes.  His next AB was basically dejavu, the same thing happened, only this time it was accompanied by smirks, laughter and shaking of heads.

 

After that moment, I knew Kole was going to be something more than a 4th OF, I'd just hoped it would be for the Angels.  You have to think other teams were asking about him in trade talks.

 

Back to Nate Smith, I really think what happened at the Pan-Am games raised his stock a little, he was the best pitcher in the tournament to my knowledge. But it's also important to keep in mind that teams generally won't send any prospects to represent their country that they really value during the season.  So the team was a hodgepodge of guys that are still decent minor leaguers and unknown prospects.  Example, Casey Kotchman was the starting 1B for Team USA and was doing quite well, which will tell you about the level of play.  It isn't like Smith shouldn't have performed as well as he did, he definitely should have, I just think the stage was set for more people to get a look at him instead of his usual start in Arkansas. 

 

He didn't blow anyone away with his performance.  He still doesn't throw particularly hard, guns clocked him between 89-92, which is average for a LHP.  He threw his breaking balls for strikes and liberally mixed in a change up.  The result was pretty.  How this translates to the majors is another thing entirely.  I think think he's going to be a solid backend starter.  His offspeed arsenal and control are better than Santiago's.

[Tyler]

I think it happens when I post from my phone.

[Inside Pitch]

Start number two...  6.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER...    Only threw 85 pitches and allowed weak contact all night long.  A much better showing than his first game despite the wind blowing to RF.  

[wopphil]

Start number two... 6.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER... Only threw 85 pitches and allowed weak contact all night long. A much better showing than his first game despite the wind blowing to RF.

IP, does Smith's lack of strikeouts concern you at all?