How soon before Moncada and Olivera sign?

[Angel Oracle]

Before ST starts throughout MLB?

[ettin]

I think Moncada will sign in the next week and a half. Can't remember seeing when Olivera was cleared to sign but since he is working out for teams I suspect he'll be signed within the next 2-3 weeks as well unless OFAC hasn't approved him yet.

[LAAMike]

The OFAC is no longer issuing a "specific license" form so that form is not necessary. The "general license" requirements have already been

met. MLB sent a memo on February 3 that Monacada was free to be signed. I am assuming that this also applies to Olivera and Ibanez.

[Second Base]

In November I predicted January.  In December I predicted February.  In January I predicted March.  I guess I'm gonna have to go April now.  He's due for a huge amount of money and the agents will likely string this thing along for as long as possible.  I think they'll convince someone to 50 million for him and thus pay 100 million.  

 

I'd love for the Angels to be in on this kid but at 100 million, no thanks.  He looks like he's going to be really good, but I'm not 100 million dollars worth of certain he'll be a really good major leaguer. 

 

Now if the bidding went to 30 million (which means the team is paying 60 million) that's another story.    30-somethings like James Shields get 90 million and I suppose that's just as great of a risk as a 19 year old with tools on top of tools. 

 

So I'm hoping the Angels are in on him, and I'm hoping they draw the limit at 30-35 million.  But I get the feeling it's going to be the Dodgers or Yankees at 50. 

[ettin]

The OFAC is no longer issuing a "specific license" form so that form is not necessary. The "general license" requirements have already been

met. MLB sent a memo on February 3 that Monacada was free to be signed. I am assuming that this also applies to Olivera and Ibanez.

That's what I meant Mike, Olivera's name was absent when they announced Moncada was able to sign under the General License. It's an odd omission.

[ettin]

As a side note I'd find it hilarious if the Angels signed Olivera and forced the other teams that need a 2B into trading with us for one of our 2B-by-committee candidates.

[LAAMike]

I just listened to the 45 minute podcast by Kiley McDaniel on BP. Kiley appears to be the world's authority on all things Moncada. Kiley stated that a signing would happen before March 1. I expect those that might lose out on Moncada (every MLB team except the Yankees, Dodgers or Padres)would then shift their interest to Olivera, who does not cost a draft pick and costs no luxury tax. Kiley stated that of the 50 Caribbean prospects at the recent championships, that 25 already had verbal commitments. This whole thing is very interesting with the new CBA coming in 2017 and the looming Intl draft. It will also be interesting to see who is left to bid on Kevin Maitlan (the 14 year old Venzuelan that everyone is comparing to Miguel Cabrera) who will be available when he turns 15.

[Chuck]

We're not getting either. 

 

Trust me on this.

[LAAMike]

Its also crazy that the Mariners had their president and GM in the Dominican Republic for a private workout with both Olivera and Ibanez as they seem to have 2B and 3B wrapped for the next seven years.

[ettin]

I just listened to the 45 minute podcast by Kiley McDaniel on BP. Kiley appears to be the world's authority on all things Moncada. Kiley stated that a signing would happen before March 1. I expect those that might lose out on Moncada (every MLB team except the Yankees, Dodgers or Padres)would then shift their interest to Olivera, who does not cost a draft pick and costs no luxury tax. Kiley stated that of the 50 Caribbean prospects at the recent championships, that 25 already had verbal commitments. This whole thing is very interesting with the new CBA coming in 2017 and the looming Intl draft. It will also be interesting to see who is left to bid on Kevin Maitlan (the 14 year old Venzuelan that everyone is comparing to Miguel Cabrera) who will be available when he turns 15.

I think the teams that are interested in Moncada are not necessarily interested in Olivera and vice-versa. One is a prospect and the other is a MLB-ready hitter.

Beyond that I agree with how interesting this situation is playing out. Essentially the Angels looked at their competition over the next two years (Cubs for instance) and decided that they should target one or more players now and essentially forfeit future major signings. I think teams like the Angels and Yankees are also aware that there will be changes to the CBA and an International Draft will be implemented which will end the whole International Spending Pool structure anyway. The choice was either overspend now or face stiff spending competition next year or the year after.

[ettin]

We're not getting either. 

Trust me on this.

You're a Negative Nancy today aren't you?

Although I agree with you that we are very unlikely to get either Moncada and especially Olivera the Angels do have the wherewithal to spend the money since we have no debt and Yoan wouldn't count against the Luxury Tax Threshold. That being said, sadly, you are probably right.

If the Angels were to pick up one more Cuban it'd be interesting to see if they go after Andy Ibanez. We really don't have any young future 2B prospects to speak of and he'd fit into a longer term plan in 3-4 years.

[Cdaniel]

You're a Negative Nancy today aren't you?

Although I agree with you that we are very unlikely to get either Moncada and especially Olivera the Angels do have the wherewithal to spend the money since we have no debt and Yoan wouldn't count against the Luxury Tax Threshold. That being said, sadly, you are probably right.

If the Angels were to pick up one more Cuban it'd be interesting to see if they go after Andy Ibanez. We really don't have any young future 2B prospects to speak of and he'd fit into a longer term plan in 3-4 years.

What about Alex Yarborough?

[ettin]

What about Alex Yarborough?

He's basically ready to play now. Maybe 1 more year. Beyond that we don't have a prospect (Sherman Johnson????) for a 3-4 year time horizon. Andy Ibanez is like 19 years old and would fit that time frame from a farm perspective.

I like Alex a lot but he's pretty much ready.

[DMVol]

You're a Negative Nancy today aren't you?

Although I agree with you that we are very unlikely to get either Moncada and especially Olivera the Angels do have the wherewithal to spend the money since we have no debt and Yoan wouldn't count against the Luxury Tax Threshold. That being said, sadly, you are probably right.

If the Angels were to pick up one more Cuban it'd be interesting to see if they go after Andy Ibanez. We really don't have any young future 2B prospects to speak of and he'd fit into a longer term plan in 3-4 years.

It makes a lot of sense but I think Chuck is right, not happenin'....Pujols, Hamilton and CJ together are going to be a plug on the money faucet for awhile....

[LAAMike]

Andy Ibanez is 21.

[ettin]

Andy Ibanez is 21.

Oops! Still fits the mold however of long-term prospect.

[greginpsca]

It makes a lot of sense but I think Chuck is right, not happenin'....Pujols, Hamilton and CJ together are going to be a plug on the money faucet for awhile....

Just wondering if the purse strings are being tightened because of the uncertainty of the stadium negotiations. In 2 years from now, the only big contracts the Angels probably have are Pujols and Trout.

[Angel Oracle]

We're not getting either. 

 

Trust me on this.

Arte not trusting signing a non-MLB experience player for anything over $10 million total?

 

If so, he might be missing out on a lot of players through the new Cuban pipeline. 

[Cdaniel]

Just wondering if the purse strings are being tightened because of the uncertainty of the stadium negotiations. In 2 years from now, the only big contracts the Angels probably have are Pujols and Trout.

Richards might cost a pretty penny as well as Calhoun.

[greginpsca]

Richards might cost a pretty penny as well as Calhoun.

Richards will more than likely be in the 10-12 mil range by then. Of course, the team might extend him seeing that he would only have 1 more year of arbitration left. I also don't see Calhoun as a bank buster.

[Angel Oracle]

Essentially, more Hackilton goodness preventing these signings?

The gift that keeps on giving.

Edited February 10, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[Stradling]

So Hamilton prevents this but Vernon didn't prevent Albert and Albert didn't prevent Hamilton? How bout it's as simple as risk versus reward.

[Angel Oracle]

But is reward necessarily true for MLB players already in their early 30s?

How many of those signings/trades have worked out for the Halos? 

Seems that based on those, it can't be any more risky to sign a top rated foreign non-MLB player to say a $30-40 million deal. 

 

At some point, a franchise has to keep up with the times.   And fewer teams are willing to do those signings/trades anymore.

Edited February 10, 2015 by Angel Oracle

[Stradling]

But is reward necessarily true for MLB players already in their early 30s?

How many of those signings/trades have worked out for the Halos?

Seems that based on those, it can't be any more risky to sign a top rated foreign non-MLB player to say a $30-40 million deal.

At some point, a franchise has to keep up with the times. And fewer teams are willing to do those signings/trades anymore.

If you can get Moncada for a total of $40 million then you do it. Do you really think that's going to be the total cost of him? Not what will he get paid, but what he will cost.

[Angel Oracle]

That is true, but there is still Olivera and Ibanez out there.