Ranking MLB's Nastiest Rotations

[Troll Daddy]

The Score

Depth

Proven Ace

Run Prevention

Durability

Track Record

1. Nationals - 23

2. Dodgers - 21

3. Cardinals - 20

4. Mariners - 18

5. Tigers - 18

6. Rays - 17

7. Orioles - 17

8. White Sox - 16

9. Marlins - 16

10. Padres - 14

Honorable mentions

Indians

Braves

Mets

I know this list sucks and the Angels should be included somewhere it it but WTF!

Bleacherreport.com

Edited January 25, 2015 by Troll Daddy

[ItzTacosYerrp]

BleacherReport........

[Docwaukee]

If I were to rank the halos on their criteria:

 

Depth - 4

We have quite a few very solid capable arms.  

 

Proven Ace - 3

Dinged this because Richards is an ace and if he pitches similarly, he will be one of the top ten pitchers in baseball.  But he needs to prove he can come back from injury

 

Run prevention - 3

Solid performance from last year.  

 

Durability - 2

Richards needs to come back from injury.  Weaver and Wilson are a year older.  A bunch of young guys and we all know that young guys don't eat innings.  Shoe could be the workhorse of the crew.

 

Track Record - 1

Lots to prove.  Lots of question marks.  

 

Total - 13

 

So, I'd put us in the honorable mention category.  Which is about the upper portion of the second 3rd.  They'll be solid because not everything will be perfect.  

[Jason]

I wouldn't say 3 for proven ace. Weaver is not an ace anymore and we saw ace material from Richards last year before the injury, which still doesn't make him proven. Hopefully the knee injury doesn't set him back.

[QuinlansMinion]

The list is pretty accurate according to 99 % of aw posters.  Most people here think Shoemaker and Richards will both regress to 3.7-4.2 ERA pitchers.  And the same people already wrote Weaver off the previous year saying he was a 3-4 starter (even though he isnt).  

 

The people that make these claims dont have any facts or statistical data to back them.  Shoemaker is supposed to regress.  Why?  Just because, thats why.  Richards cant come back from his injury and be the same pitcher he was last year.  Why?  Just because, thats why.

 

Personally, I think the Angels rotation is at least top 5 in MLB.  I see Wilson and Santiago as reliable 4 and 5 starters next season.  And until I have reason to believe that Richards, Shoemaker, and Weaver are all going to regress, ill refrain from jumping to conclusions until that point.  

[NrM]

The list is pretty accurate according to 99 % of aw posters.  Most people here think Shoemaker and Richards will both regress to 3.7-4.2 ERA pitchers.  And the same people already wrote Weaver off the previous year saying he was a 3-4 starter (even though he isnt).  

 

The people that make these claims dont have any facts or statistical data to back them.  Shoemaker is supposed to regress.  Why?  Just because, thats why.  Richards cant come back from his injury and be the same pitcher he was last year.  Why?  Just because, thats why.

 

Personally, I think the Angels rotation is at least top 5 in MLB.  I see Wilson and Santiago as reliable 4 and 5 starters next season.  And until I have reason to believe that Richards, Shoemaker, and Weaver are all going to regress, ill refrain from jumping to conclusions until that point.  

lol find me one aw poster who thinks richards will regress to a 3.7-4.2 era.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Poozy

[Stradling]

QM it isn't that we think they will be average, I am an overly optimistic person, I just don't want to count my chickens before they hatch. I completely see Richards being a beast because his stuff is filthy, some of the best in the game. Shoe on the other hand could be a solid 3 instead of a solid 2, like he performed last year.

[tdawg87]

Pretty sure Weaver was a number 3 last year.

[QuinlansMinion]

lol find me one aw poster who thinks richards will regress to a 3.7-4.2 era.

 

May be a stretch, but I seem to recall a lot of people saying hes either out until July, or when he comes back he will regress to a mid rotation guy.  

 

 

QM it isn't that we think they will be average, I am an overly optimistic person, I just don't want to count my chickens before they hatch. I completely see Richards being a beast because his stuff is filthy, some of the best in the game. Shoe on the other hand could be a solid 3 instead of a solid 2, like he performed last year.

 

Last year though everyone was on board with Shoemaker being legit. Everything about his numbers and his stuff didnt indicate it was a fluke, and when he came back for the playoffs he was the same dominant pitcher.  Id like to know what happened to that logic, because if anything I think with more experience Shoemaker can still get better, or at worse be the same pitcher he was last year.

[Taylor]

Pretty sure Weaver was a number 3.4753 last year.

 

Fixed.

[NrM]

May be a stretch, but I seem to recall a lot of people saying hes either out until July, or when he comes back he will regress to a mid rotation guy.

 

 

 

I doubt someone actually said that.

 

People saying he might be out till july was probably just sarcasm because players always seem to have random "setbacks" whenever they are on the DL.

I was and still am a little concerned on when he will be back.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Poozy

[Docwaukee]

The list is pretty accurate according to 99 % of aw posters.  Most people here think Shoemaker and Richards will both regress to 3.7-4.2 ERA pitchers.  And the same people already wrote Weaver off the previous year saying he was a 3-4 starter (even though he isnt).  

 

The people that make these claims dont have any facts or statistical data to back them.  Shoemaker is supposed to regress.  Why?  Just because, thats why.  Richards cant come back from his injury and be the same pitcher he was last year.  Why?  Just because, thats why.

 

Personally, I think the Angels rotation is at least top 5 in MLB.  I see Wilson and Santiago as reliable 4 and 5 starters next season.  And until I have reason to believe that Richards, Shoemaker, and Weaver are all going to regress, ill refrain from jumping to conclusions until that point.  

 

I like the optimism and I agree that there isn't any real reason why Richards, Shoemaker and Weaver all can't perform as well as they did last year.  But even if they do, they're in the 10-15 range just like last year.  

[QuinlansMinion]

I like the optimism and I agree that there isn't any real reason why Richards, Shoemaker and Weaver all can't perform as well as they did last year.  But even if they do, they're in the 10-15 range just like last year.  

A full year of Richards, Shoemaker, and Weaver each producing the way they did last year does not equal 10-15 range.  Thats a top 5 rotation, even if none of them get better.  

 

And you still have Santiago who had a great 2nd half last year.  

[Angelsjunky]

People need to realize that

 

1) We, as Angels fans, tend to be biased towards the Angels in a positive light. In other words, they're probably not as good as we think (or want to think).

2) Most such lists are based upon "most likely outcome." Most likely, the Angels rotation is solid, even good, but not great. It could be great, but a lot would have to go right. It could also be just OK if some things go wrong.

 

I personally like our chances of having a very good rotation, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is merely good. I think Doc has it about right, that the Angels are probably in the #10-15 range. There's a possible scenario that theire' in the #6-10 range, but it is very unlikely that they're a top 5 rotation.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Angelsjunky

[NrM]

People need to realize that

 

1) We, as Angels fans, tend to be biased towards the Angels in a positive light. In other words, they're probably not as good as we think (or want to think).

2) Most such lists are based upon "most likely outcome." Most likely, the Angels rotation is solid, even good, but not great. It could be great, but a lot would have to go right. It could also be just OK if some things go wrong.

 

I personally like our chances of having a very good rotation, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is merely good. I think Doc has it about right, that the Angels are probably in the #10-15 range. There's a possible scenario that theire' in the #6-10 range, but it is very unlikely that they're a top 5 rotation.

 

If the rotation is in the top 5 in all of baseball this year(without any further moves) the angels need to give dipoto a contract similar to what Scioscia got.

 

I mean that would be a serious accomplishment to go from top 15 to top 5 without spending much money.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Poozy

[NrM]

A full year of Richards, Shoemaker, and Weaver each producing the way they did last year does not equal 10-15 range.  Thats a top 5 rotation, even if none of them get better.  

 

And you still have Santiago who had a great 2nd half last year.  

 

Richards and Shoemaker have never pitched a full season. That's why people are skeptical.

Injuries and experience factor into projections.

 

That's why fangraphs(streamer) projects shoemaker and richards to compile a combined 3.6 WAR this year after combining for 6.4 WAR last year.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Poozy

[Reveille1984]

The list is pretty accurate according to 99 % of aw posters.  Most people here think Shoemaker and Richards will both regress to 3.7-4.2 ERA pitchers.  And the same people already wrote Weaver off the previous year saying he was a 3-4 starter (even though he isnt).  

 

The people that make these claims dont have any facts or statistical data to back them.  Shoemaker is supposed to regress.  Why?  Just because, thats why.  Richards cant come back from his injury and be the same pitcher he was last year.  Why?  Just because, thats why.

 

Personally, I think the Angels rotation is at least top 5 in MLB.  I see Wilson and Santiago as reliable 4 and 5 starters next season.  And until I have reason to believe that Richards, Shoemaker, and Weaver are all going to regress, ill refrain from jumping to conclusions until that point.  

 

Weaver has declined for the past three years and counting, and isn't getting any younger.  To not expect regression would be more unrealistic.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Reveille1984

[Hollyw00d]

Santiago wasn't great in the second half last year, his fastball lost velocity and he got knocked around in september

[eaterfan]

Santiago wasn't great in the second half last year, his fastball lost velocity and he got knocked around in september

Santiago had a bad September but a much better second half than first half of the season.

His pre all star Era was 4.50 and his post all star ERA was 2.98.

[Butcher'd]

The list is pretty accurate according to 99 % of aw posters.  Most people here think Shoemaker and Richards will both regress to 3.7-4.2 ERA pitchers.  And the same people already wrote Weaver off the previous year saying he was a 3-4 starter (even though he isnt).  

 

The people that make these claims dont have any facts or statistical data to back them.  Shoemaker is supposed to regress.  Why?  Just because, thats why.  Richards cant come back from his injury and be the same pitcher he was last year.  Why?  Just because, thats why.

 

Personally, I think the Angels rotation is at least top 5 in MLB.  I see Wilson and Santiago as reliable 4 and 5 starters next season.  And until I have reason to believe that Richards, Shoemaker, and Weaver are all going to regress, ill refrain from jumping to conclusions until that point.  

 

You keep saying this, and it just sounds more ridiculous each time IMO. So I'll break it down for you:

 

1) Shoemaker regressing to a 3.7-4.2 ERA range is a possibility. He came out of nowhere last year and it's a small sample size we're operating off of. Personally I think he'll be in the 3.5-3.8 range. A solid #3 starter

2) If anyone says Richards will regress to the ERA range you mentioned they are batshit crazy. BUt I don't believe anyone ever said that. 2.8-3.4 for him IMO

3)Weaver's trend since his dominant 2011 season:

2011:235 innings pitched, 2.41 ERA, 1.010 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (one of the best pitchers in baseball)

2012: 2.81 ERA, 188.2 innings pitched, 1.018 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 (Still one of the better pitchers in the league but dealt with injuries and struck out less batters)

2013: 3.27 ERA, 154.1 innings pitched, 1.140 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 (More injuries and worse numbers across the board - still put up solid #2 numbers)

2014: 3.59 ERA, 213.1 innings pitched, 1.209 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 (It was great to see him pitch every game, but again his numbers declined. Solid # 3 last year)

 

Do you see the trend there with Weaver? I like the guy but he's in decline. I'm expecting a 3.6-3.9 ERA from him next year which would be fine

 

So no, not "just because". People aren't expecting him to be a #2 because he wasn't last year and he's got mileage on his arm and is aging. CJ being a solid #4-5 we'll just agree to disagree on. 

 

Shoemaker is the only debate that's interesting. I could see him getting figured out next year or he could continue to be great. We'll see

[NrM]

You keep saying this, and it just sounds more ridiculous each time IMO. So I'll break it down for you:

 

1) Shoemaker regressing to a 3.7-4.2 ERA range is a possibility. He came out of nowhere last year and it's a small sample size we're operating off of. Personally I think he'll be in the 3.5-3.8 range. A solid #3 starter

2) If anyone says Richards will regress to the ERA range you mentioned they are batshit crazy. BUt I don't believe anyone ever said that. 2.8-3.4 for him IMO

3)Weaver's trend since his dominant 2011 season:

2011:235 innings pitched, 2.41 ERA, 1.010 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (one of the best pitchers in baseball)

2012: 2.81 ERA, 188.2 innings pitched, 1.018 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 (Still one of the better pitchers in the league but dealt with injuries and struck out less batters)

2013: 3.27 ERA, 154.1 innings pitched, 1.140 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 (More injuries and worse numbers across the board - still put up solid #2 numbers)

2014: 3.59 ERA, 213.1 innings pitched, 1.209 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 (It was great to see him pitch every game, but again his numbers declined. Solid # 3 last year)

 

Do you see the trend there with Weaver? I like the guy but he's in decline. I'm expecting a 3.6-3.9 ERA from him next year which would be fine

 

So no, not "just because". People aren't expecting him to be a #2 because he wasn't last year and he's got mileage on his arm and is aging. CJ being a solid #4-5 we'll just agree to disagree on. 

 

Shoemaker is the only debate that's interesting. I could see him getting figured out next year or he could continue to be great. We'll see

 

Agree with your post. Just thought I'd throw in a couple things,

 

1) Shoemaker regressing to a 3.7-4.2 ERA range is a possibility. He came out of nowhere last year and it's a small sample size we're operating off of. Personally I think he'll be in the 3.5-3.8 range. A solid #3 starter

 

A 3.5-3.8 ERA in Anaheim is more of a 4-5 starter than a #3. Weaver had a 3.59 ERA last year and his ERA+ was only 101. 

 

3)Weaver's trend since his dominant 2011 season:

2011:235 innings pitched, 2.41 ERA, 1.010 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (one of the best pitchers in baseball)

2012: 2.81 ERA, 188.2 innings pitched, 1.018 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 (Still one of the better pitchers in the league but dealt with injuries and struck out less batters)

2013: 3.27 ERA, 154.1 innings pitched, 1.140 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 (More injuries and worse numbers across the board - still put up solid #2 numbers)

2014: 3.59 ERA, 213.1 innings pitched, 1.209 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 (It was great to see him pitch every game, but again his numbers declined. Solid # 3 last year)

 

The main thing that has stood out to me is that his velocity has gone down every year since 2011. That's probably the main reason for his decline.

[Docwaukee]

It also hasn't been established what metrics/stats determine how the staff is ranked.  The criteria used by Bleacher Report is kinda crap.  Any way you slice it, the halos rotation would have to make some serious strides to get into the top 5 and that would have to come from the bottom of the rotation.  If Shoe, Richards and Weaver do what they did last year over a full season, you'd still need Trop, Heaney and/or Santiago to really step up.  

[ELEVEN]

I think Shoemaker really benefitted from Conger stealing some key strikes for him.

That will be missing.

[KevinJ14]

I think Shoemaker really benefitted from Conger stealing some key strikes for him.

That will be missing.

I think everyone did.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Richards and Shoemaker have never pitched a full season. That's why people are skeptical.

Injuries and experience factor into projections.

 

That's why fangraphs(streamer) projects shoemaker and richards to compile a combined 3.6 WAR this year after combining for 6.4 WAR last year.

 

Yet ZiPs has them combined for almost 7.