Angels going after Zobrist and Shields

[Second Base]

I feel like everyone is stretching my enthusiasm a bit for Cron and Santiago, and perhaps that's my fault for not being more clear.

1. Santiago is a proven above average major league starter ~ Yeah, I stand by that. I mean how often are you able to find LHP's making close to the league minimum, in their 20's that have a low-90's fastball, plus off-speed pitch and that's posted three consecutive seasons with an ERA under 3.75?

Why on earth do you want to trade THAT for one year of Zobrist, who good as he may be, couldn't possibly equate Santiago's futurre value in one season, or that of the prospects you could get if you did trade Santiago.

2. Cron is a future middle of the order hitter ~ Yeah, I believe it. Folks seem really down on him because the Angels went out and got Joyce to DH against RHP. Keep in mind, Cron never got a full year in AAA and wouldn't be hurt by it this year if it happens. This was C.J.'s first taste of pro ball and it seems pretty clear he's more than capable of hitting .270 with 25-30 HR's in the near future.

I won't deny his OBP will likely suck, and that he probably won't be much more than the equal of Trumbo's value. But last time I checked, despite Trumbo's shortcomings he was a middle of the order hitter, and he got us both Skaggs and Santiago in a trade.

If three years of Trumbo gets six years of Skaggs and four years of Santiago, why on Earth would you give away SIX years of Cron for only one of Zobrist? That's a terrible move. It just makes no sense, especially when viewed within the larger scope of the moves this team has made to shore up second base. I think folks need to give Green and Featherston a chance before making a panic move like Santiago and Cron for Zobrist.

I'd trade one of Cron and Santiago, if it were 3 years of Zobrist at a reasonable price. But it isn't. No way do I make that deal.

Edited January 6, 2015 by ScottyA_MWAH

[ten ocho recon scout]

^solid points

[Stradling]

I feel like everyone is stretching my enthusiasm a bit for Cron and Santiago, and perhaps that's my fault for not being more clear.

1. Santiago is a proven above average major league starter ~ Yeah, I stand by that. I mean how often are you able to find LHP's making close to the league minimum, in their 20's that have a low-90's fastball, plus off-speed pitch and that's posted three consecutive seasons with an ERA under 3.75?

Why on earth do you want to trade THAT for one year of Zobrist, who good as he may be, couldn't possibly equate Santiago's futurre value in one season, or that of the prospects you could get if you did trade Santiago.

2. Cron is a future middle of the order hitter ~ Yeah, I believe it. Folks seem really down on him because the Angels went out and got Joyce to DH against RHP. Keep in mind, Cron never got a full year in AAA and wouldn't be hurt by it this year if it happens. This was C.J.'s first taste of pro ball and it seems pretty clear he's more than capable of hitting .270 with 25-30 HR's in the near future.

I won't deny his OBP will likely suck, and that he probably won't be much more than the equal of Trumbo's value. But last time I checked, despite Trumbo's shortcomings he was a middle of the order hitter, and he got us both Skaggs and Santiago in a trade.

If three years of Trumbo gets six years of Skaggs and four years of Santiago, why on Earth would you give away SIX years of Cron for only one of Zobrist? That's a terrible move. It just makes no sense, especially when viewed within the larger scope of the moves this team has made to shore up second base. I think folks need to give Green and Featherston a chance before making a panic move like Santiago and Cron for Zobrist.

I'd trade one of Cron and Santiago, if it were 3 years of Zobrist at a reasonable price. But it isn't. No way do I make that deal.

So, if they make the trade and then re-sign Zobrist to a 2 year deal then you are fine with the trade? I would move either of them for Zobrist, I don't know if I would trade both, unless we got something else along with Zobrist. The Angels would have a pretty big say in whether or not it was a one year of Zobrist type of deal.

[NrM]

I feel like everyone is stretching my enthusiasm a bit for Cron and Santiago, and perhaps that's my fault for not being more clear.

1. Santiago is a proven above average major league starter ~ Yeah, I stand by that. I mean how often are you able to find LHP's making close to the league minimum, in their 20's that have a low-90's fastball, plus off-speed pitch and that's posted three consecutive seasons with an ERA under 3.75?

Why on earth do you want to trade THAT for one year of Zobrist, who good as he may be, couldn't possibly equate Santiago's futurre value in one season, or that of the prospects you could get if you did trade Santiago.

2. Cron is a future middle of the order hitter ~ Yeah, I believe it. Folks seem really down on him because the Angels went out and got Joyce to DH against RHP. Keep in mind, Cron never got a full year in AAA and wouldn't be hurt by it this year if it happens. This was C.J.'s first taste of pro ball and it seems pretty clear he's more than capable of hitting .270 with 25-30 HR's in the near future.

I won't deny his OBP will likely suck, and that he probably won't be much more than the equal of Trumbo's value. But last time I checked, despite Trumbo's shortcomings he was a middle of the order hitter, and he got us both Skaggs and Santiago in a trade.

If three years of Trumbo gets six years of Skaggs and four years of Santiago, why on Earth would you give away SIX years of Cron for only one of Zobrist? That's a terrible move. It just makes no sense, especially when viewed within the larger scope of the moves this team has made to shore up second base. I think folks need to give Green and Featherston a chance before making a panic move like Santiago and Cron for Zobrist.

I'd trade one of Cron and Santiago, if it were 3 years of Zobrist at a reasonable price. But it isn't. No way do I make that deal.

 

What has Cron proven to be capable of batting .270? Mark Trumbo has a career .247 batting average.

In 346 minor league games CJ Cron walked 68 times. Trumbo walked 58 times in 139 games in his final season at salt lake.

 

Cron has terrible speed. Trumbo doesn't.

Cron is below average defensively at 1b. Trumbo isn't.

Cron can't play more than one position, trumbo can(albeit poorly)

 

Trumbo is far more versatile than Cron(from what I've seen), and yet he has only been able to produce a 2-2.5 WAR.

You are seriously overvaluing Cron. 

 

I like Santiago a lot more than Cron, but I don't have a lot of confidence in him.

He's lacked the ability to work deep into games and doesn't seem to produce a lot of swing and misses.

His ERA was great in the second half, but what good is that when he only pitches 5 innings a game and taxes the pen every start?

 

I think Santiago has the ability to be a 3rd starter if he reaches his full potential. 

I don't think Cron will ever be a starter on a playoff contending roster.

 

Edit: at the very least, this is an interesting discussion. Not trying to call you out or anything. 

Edited January 6, 2015 by Poozy

[Second Base]

So, if they make the trade and then re-sign Zobrist to a 2 year deal then you are fine with the trade? I would move either of them for Zobrist, I don't know if I would trade both, unless we got something else along with Zobrist. The Angels would have a pretty big say in whether or not it was a one year of Zobrist type of deal.

 

Not really, no.  Mostly because Zobrist will hit the market next winter as a 35 year old and cost 15 million a year.  So if the Angels signed him to a 2 year deal, it would be the equivalent of having Zobrist at 3 years 37 million for his age 35-37 seasons plus the loss of either Cron or Santiago and blocking Alex Yarbrough the year after that. 

 

What has Cron proven to be capable of batting .270? Mark Trumbo has a career .247 batting average.

In 346 minor league games CJ Cron walked 68 times. Trumbo walked 58 times in 139 games in his final season at salt lake.

 

Cron has terrible speed. Trumbo doesn't.

Cron is below average defensively at 1b. Trumbo isn't.

Cron can't play any other position than 1b, trumbo can(albeit poorly)

 

Trumbo is far more versatile than Cron(from what I've seen), and yet he has only been able to produce a 2-2.5 WAR.

 

You are seriously overvaluing Cron. 

 

1. Cron hit .256 in his first stint in pro ball and owns a career .290 average in the minors including .316 in his stint in AAA last season.  Trumbo hit .277 in the minors and 15 points lower in Salt Lake.  If this trend continues, Cron would then hit 15-20 points higher than Trumbo, at .247, which would pout Cron right around .267.  So do you really want to argue the value of hitting .267 vs .270?

 

2. We aren't comparing Cron vs. Trumbo as total ball players, but as DH options.  Oddly enough, if we stretch Cron's numbers out across an full season, wed see his first year was actually quite similar to Trumbo's.  Mark hit .254/.291 with 31 DB's and 29 HR's in 573 PA.  Across the same number of appearances, Cron was on pace to hit .256/.289 with 27 DB's and 25 HR's.  The difference is, Cron did it a year younger and without the benefit of a full season in AAA. 

 

3. C.J. Cron will hold approximately equal value as Mark Trumbo as a DH, the numbers show that.  No one is arguing that he's better.  I'm showing that it's highly likely Cron will be in the same ball park as Trumbo, who was traded for two good LH SP, not for one year of a 35 year old 2B. 

 

Therefore, for those who are sentimental, would you trade six years of Trumbo for one of Zobrist?  Of course not.  

[NrM]

 

 

1. Cron hit .256 in his first stint in pro ball and owns a career .290 average in the minors including .316 in his stint in AAA last season.  Trumbo hit .277 in the minors and 15 points lower in Salt Lake.  If this trend continues, Cron would then hit 15-20 points higher than Trumbo, at .247, which would pout Cron right around .267.  So do you really want to argue the value of hitting .267 vs .270?

 

 

 

I would agree with you if they were the same age during their time in the Minors. Cron being 21/22 while trumbo was 19.

Coincidentally, trumbo didn't perform as well from age 19-21

Excluding Trumbo's first 3 seasons, the batting averages are pretty much identical.The main thing that stands out is Trumbo showed the ability to walk, while Cron did not.

Also, what does it say about Cron when he will most likely be starting his age 26 season in the Minors. The Angels obviously don't have much confidence in him. Trumbo started full time when he was 24.

 

 

2. We aren't comparing Cron vs. Trumbo as total ball players, but as DH options.  Oddly enough, if we stretch Cron's numbers out across an full season, wed see his first year was actually quite similar to Trumbo's.  Mark hit .254/.291 with 31 DB's and 29 HR's in 573 PA.  Across the same number of appearances, Cron was on pace to hit .256/.289 with 27 DB's and 25 HR's.  The difference is, Cron did it a year younger and without the benefit of a full season in AAA. 

 

 

If we're comparing them as soley DH's then why did you bring to attention(multiple times) that Trumbo managed to fetch us Santiago and Skaggs. The only reason we were able to get so much out of that trade was because of Trumbo's ability to play 1b, RF and LF. 

 

 

3. C.J. Cron will hold approximately equal value as Mark Trumbo as a DH, the numbers show that.  No one is arguing that he's better.  

 

 

It doesn't matter if they hold equal value at DH. The discussion is if his overall value(combined with santiago) is/isn't worth trading him for Zobrist.

You made that clear in this very same paragraph, contradicting yourself.

 

 

 I'm showing that it's highly likely Cron will be in the same ball park as Trumbo, who was traded for two good LH SP, not for one year of a 35 year old 2B.

 

 

I don't understand how you can say we're only discussing their merits at DH, and then in the very next sentence say the angels managed to get two good LHers for trumbo, which of course, never would've happened if he could only DH.

 

And you did it again at the end of your post.

 

 

Therefore, for those who are sentimental, would you trade six years of Trumbo for one of Zobrist?  Of course not.

 

Edited January 6, 2015 by Poozy

[Second Base]

1. Ummm, it's Cron's 25th birthday today.  Cron's age 26 season isn't for another year and a half.  

 

2. The Angels traded for Joyce with the chance to let Cron hit against LHP and even get time in AAA, the time Trumbo had afforded to him and Cron didn't.

 

3. Do you really think the D-Backs traded for Mark Trumbo because of his defensive ability?  It seems considerably more likely that they were trading for his bat, specifically his ability to hit the long ball.  Cron, he hits the long ball, and just hits in general every bit as well as Trumbo. 

[NrM]

1. Ummm, it's Cron's 25th birthday today.  Cron's age 26 season isn't for another year and a half.  

 

2. The Angels traded for Joyce with the chance to let Cron hit against LHP and even get time in AAA, the time Trumbo had afforded to him and Cron didn't.

 

3. Do you really think the D-Backs traded for Mark Trumbo because of his defensive ability?  It seems considerably more likely that they were trading for his bat, specifically his ability to hit the long ball.  Cron, he hits the long ball, and just hits in general every bit as well as Trumbo. 

 

w/e. I think you diverted, dismissed and ignored all my significant points. You'd make a good politician.   

Edited January 6, 2015 by Poozy

[ELEVEN]

I feel like everyone is stretching my enthusiasm a bit for Cron and Santiago, and perhaps that's my fault for not being more clear.

1. Santiago is a proven above average major league starter ~ Yeah, I stand by that. I mean how often are you able to find LHP's making close to the league minimum, in their 20's that have a low-90's fastball, plus off-speed pitch and that's posted three consecutive seasons with an ERA under 3.75?

Why on earth do you want to trade THAT for one year of Zobrist, who good as he may be, couldn't possibly equate Santiago's futurre value in one season, or that of the prospects you could get if you did trade Santiago.

2. Cron is a future middle of the order hitter ~ Yeah, I believe it. Folks seem really down on him because the Angels went out and got Joyce to DH against RHP. Keep in mind, Cron never got a full year in AAA and wouldn't be hurt by it this year if it happens. This was C.J.'s first taste of pro ball and it seems pretty clear he's more than capable of hitting .270 with 25-30 HR's in the near future.

I won't deny his OBP will likely suck, and that he probably won't be much more than the equal of Trumbo's value. But last time I checked, despite Trumbo's shortcomings he was a middle of the order hitter, and he got us both Skaggs and Santiago in a trade.

If three years of Trumbo gets six years of Skaggs and four years of Santiago, why on Earth would you give away SIX years of Cron for only one of Zobrist? That's a terrible move. It just makes no sense, especially when viewed within the larger scope of the moves this team has made to shore up second base. I think folks need to give Green and Featherston a chance before making a panic move like Santiago and Cron for Zobrist.

I'd trade one of Cron and Santiago, if it were 3 years of Zobrist at a reasonable price. But it isn't. No way do I make that deal.

They said there would be no math!

[ettin]

They way i see it is there are multiple positions for Santiago. If he doesnt stick as a SP (which i hope he does), then he can fit in as a needed lefty reliever or long relief. Could still get a lot of work limiting innings for Heaney and Tropeano, or even Richards whenever hes coming back.

 

Yes you are correct there are multiple positions but is anything but a rotation spot fulfilling and maximizing Santiago's potential? I personally feel he is a starter and if the Angels are thinking he doesn't have a rotation spot they might want to move him not only to acquire a more needed piece but to allow Hector to maximize his potential somewhere else.

 

Don't get me wrong I'd love to see Hector perform like he did during a stretch last year where he was throwing ace level stuff but the Angels may just not have a spot for him. You could keep him as pitching depth but that is not helping your big league club necessarily.

[Inside Pitch]

 

Excluding Trumbo's first 3 seasons, the batting averages are pretty much identical.The main thing that stands out is Trumbo showed the ability to walk, while Cron did not.

Also, what does it say about Cron when he will most likely be starting his age 26 season in the Minors. The Angels obviously don't have much confidence in him. Trumbo started full time when he was 24.

 

Revisionist history much?  Mark Trumbo didn't start "Full time" until his age 25 season, he had all of 15 MLB at bats at age 24.   Cron FWIW, was 24 last year and despite posting a worse walk rate actually posted a better PPA than Trumbo has in any season of his entire career.   it's also questionable whether or not Trumbo would have been playing "full time" at age 25 if not for Kendry's Morales' piss poor attempt at hopscotch.

 

Mark Trumbo enters his age 29 season with a career OPS+ of 111.   CJ Cron enters his age 25 season with an OPS+ of 110, his wRC+ is better than Trumbo's albeit those numbers have come over a limited sample size.  With Trumbo he's a given, he's not likely to get better, a case could be made that he's already peaked given he's seen his offense drop every season since 2012.  You can argue Trumbo was injured last year but then you may as well apply the same bias to Cron's early career injury woes.  It's precisely those injuries that cloud what Cron is or could be.  I've been a Cron doubter in large part because he wasn't remotely the hitter he was touted to be (the walks), but he was a significantly different hitter last year than he had been previously in AA, when I openly questioned his long term potential.  Cron saw his LD% rise from 19.1% in AA to better than 28% at the MLB.  He also saw his GB% drop from 43.5% to 34.8...  all while keeping his FB% pretty steady 26.7% to 25.4.  Typically these are signs the hitter is making better, harder contact, and that he's elevating the ball, which leads to the the biggest most marked change in his rates.  In discussing him in the minor league forum I openly questioned his power due to his complete inability to pull the ball despite being touted as a serious power threat..  Historically guys who can't turn and pull in the minors are being over matched, it's one of those things that often shows up early and proves to be a chink in the armor -- Cron actually saw his FB pull rate rise from 45% in AA to 65% in MLB.   You put all those things together and there is reason to hope that Cron is a guy that's evolving as a hitter.

 

He's definitely got to try to improve his walk rate, he likely will need to go the other way a bit more once pitchers realize he can murder a ball, but there is enough in his recent rates to put his minor league stat lines into question and hope he may yet prove to be better than what Trumbo was.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[ettin]

Shyt's gettin' real in this thread.

 

 

I agree tdawg87, although he's the classic type of player that is underrated by the masses, overrated by statnerds due to defense-inflated WAR. Like Josh Donaldson. Don't get me wrong, Zobrist is an excellent player I just don't know if he's quite as excellent as his WAR would have it.

 

 

 

I hear what you are saying but, like some others have said, think you might be over-valuing Santiago and especially Cron. At this point I really question Cron's upside. Best case scenario and he's still a run-of-the-mill 1B/DH type with bad defense, maybe hitting .270/.800 with 25-30 HR - essentially another Trumbo with perhaps a bit higher average but less power. OK, that's pretty good but hardly the stuff of legend, especially factoring in his poor defense. Plus, that's best case scenario. He could also be another Russell Branyan.

 

As for Santiago, he is a useful player. But again, Zobrist is excellent and would add a few wins all by himself.

 

 

Good post and I agree with the majority of it but wanted to question the part in bold. If anything, I think this has been a franchise weakness, with the Angels generally employing good average but poor plate discipline hitters. Here's the team going back five years in AL OBP and Walk ranks (out of 15 teams):

 

2014: 4th, 8th

2013: 3rd, 8th

2012: 4th, 12th

2011: 11th, 11th

2010: 13th, 12th

 

As you can see, the walks went from poor to solid, but still not great. The OBP has been pretty good, but that's mainly due to BA. But I just don't see the Angels putting high OBP hitters in the lineup, except for a couple (Trout, Iannetta) and instead mainly just having a bunch of guys that are in the average to above average range. When I think "high OBP" I think at least .350 (in this reduced offensive era), and the Angels only had two players above .350.

 

.320-.325 is league average?

[Inside Pitch]

FTR, as much as I have liked Zobrist, the one year rental type isn't what the Halos need.   I think the money involved is sketchy for Shields...     I actually really like what the team has done this off season, even if they take a step backwards, they seem much better positioned long term.

[NrM]

Revisionist history much?  Mark Trumbo didn't start "Full time" until his age 25 season, he had all of 15 MLB at bats at age 24.   Cron FWIW, was 24 last year and despite posting a worse walk rate actually posted a better PPA than Trumbo has in any season of his entire career.   it's also questionable whether or not Trumbo would have been playing "full time" at age 25 if not for Kendry's Morales' piss poor attempt at hopscotch.

 

Mark Trumbo enters his age 29 season with a career OPS+ of 111.   CJ Cron enters his age 25 season with an OPS+ of 110, his wRC+ is better than Trumbo's albeit those numbers have come over a limited sample size.  With Trumbo he's a given, he's not likely to get better, a case could be made that he's already peaked given he's seen his offense drop every season since 2012.  You can argue Trumbo was injured last year but then you may as well apply the same bias to Cron's early career injury woes.  It's precisely those injuries that cloud what Cron is or could be.  I've been a Cron doubter in large part because he wasn't remotely the hitter he was touted to be (the walks), but he was a significantly different hitter last year than he had been previously in AA, when I openly questioned his long term potential.  Cron saw his LD% rise from 19.1% in AA to better than 28% at the MLB.  He also saw his GB% drop from 43.5% to 34.8...  all while keeping his FB% pretty steady 26.7% to 25.4.  Typically these are signs the hitter is making better, harder contact, and that he's elevating the ball, which leads to the the biggest most marked change in his rates.  In discussing him in the minor league forum I openly questioned his power due to his complete inability to pull the ball despite being touted as a serious power threat..  Historically guys who can't turn and pull in the minors are being over matched, it's one of those things that often shows up early and proves to be a chink in the armor -- Cron actually saw his FB pull rate rise from 45% in AA to 65% in MLB.   You put all those things together and there is reason to hope that Cron is a guy that's evolving as a hitter.

 

He's definitely got to try to improve his walk rate, he likely will need to go the other way a bit more once pitchers realize he can murder a ball, but there is enough in his recent rates to put his minor league stat lines into question and hope he may yet prove to be better than what Trumbo was.

 

okay I appreciate you correcting me on the age of both Trumbo and Cron.

 

Now to your post.

 

Unfortunately, those fancy stats have no substance with such a small MLB sample size. It's simply not an indication of how he will perform going forward. 

Cron did great initially and then flamed out, which is similar to many prospects who are playing over their heads.

 

May and June(131 at bats) he hit .290/.316/.550 .886 OPS  

July, Aug, Sept(111 at bats) he hit .216/.256/.333 .590 OPS 

 

The one thing that remained consistent is that atrocious 4% BB. That BB% would rank him 138th out of 146 if he qualified, which is usually reserved for weak hitting middle infielders and declining vets.. Not a full time DH.

 

Drawing walks isn't a skill many players can significantly improve throughout their career.

 

CJ Cron is not a major league caliber player. He will likely find himself back in the minors by the end of the season, or be restricted to matchup at bats only. I'm pretty sure Dipoto knows this and that's why he went out and traded for Matt Joyce.

 

I'll def bookmark this thread for future use and gladly take all the shit you guys give me if I'm wrong.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Poozy

[Inside Pitch]

 

okay I appreciate you correcting me on the age of both Trumbo and Cron.

 

Now to your post.

 

Unfortunately, those fancy stats have no substance with such a small MLB sample size. It's simply not an indication of how he will perform going forward. 

Cron did great initially and then flamed out, which is similar to many prospects who are playing over their heads.

 

May and June(131 at bats) he hit .290/.316/.550 .886 OPS  

July, Aug, Sept(111 at bats) he hit .216/.256/.333 .590 OPS 

 

The one thing that remained consistent is that atrocious 4% BB. That BB% would rank him 138th out of 146 if he qualified, which is usually reserved for weak hitting middle infielders and declining vets.. Not a full time DH.

 

Drawing walks isn't a skill many players can significantly improve throughout their career.

 

CJ Cron is not a major league caliber player. He will likely find himself back in the minors by the end of the season, or be restricted matchups. I'm pretty sure Dipoto knows this and that's why he went out and traded for Matt Joyce.

 

I'll def bookmark this thread for future use and gladly take all the shit you guys give me if I'm wrong.

 

Meh -- not interesting in proving you right or wrong, not trying to win or alter your opinion even, but I am offering a counter to your POV.  I'm saying there may be more than meets the eye than just his minor league stat-lines.... stat-lines based on a player coming back from injury and a player who flat out stated he wasn't trying to pull the ball or drive it even.  There was a really good interview with Cron at Fangraphs after his AA season where he discussed his approach.   Had he followed up that season with more of the same I'd have disregarded it as fluff -- but he went out and did all the things he said he had not been doing.   Not sure how anyone can just disregard that.

 

As far as the "fancy" stats go... You can dismiss the numbers at the MLB level if you want -- but the AAA numbers showed the same trends -- do those numbers also lack "substance"?  Also, do you realize how hypocritical it is to dismiss the LD/Pull/GB rates over a full season AAA/MLB and then turn around and use triple slash stats on a month to month basis?   If the predictive rates lack substance then what can be taken from looking at outcome stats that are pretty much useless for predictive purposes -- particularly since they shed no light on his actual usage.  Again, there was a significant change in how Cron went about hitting last year -- a change for the better even if the walk rate remained static.

 

Anyway, when it's all said and done, you're saying he can't walk, and is worse than Trumbo.   I'm saying there is reason to believe that unlike Trumbo, Cron may yet be a work in progress and could still improve.  I don't believe Cron is going to morph into a walk machine or anything close to that, but historically speaking players see their walk rates improve as they age -- thus the terms veteran skill or old player skills.  If Cron turns out to a better player than you seem to think he is.... he will be making us BOTH look dumb.  Let me be very clear, I was a very vocal Cron doubter but there are things he's done since AA that are making me look beyond the weak walk rate.   If you've read my posts, you know I'm a big fan of guys who get on base -- Cron is not someone I'd typically wish on.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[NrM]

Meh -- not interesting in proving you right or wrong, not trying to win or alter your opinion even, but I am offering a counter to your POV.  I'm saying there may be more than meets the eye than just his minor league stat-lines.... stat-lines based on a player coming back from injury and a player who flat out stated he wasn't trying to pull the ball or drive it even.  There was a really good interview with Cron at Fangraphs after his AA season where he discussed his approach.   Had he followed up that season with more of the same I'd have disregarded it as fluff -- but he went out and did all the things he said he had not been doing.   Not sure how anyone can just disregard that.

 

As far as the "fancy" stats go... You can dismiss the numbers at the MLB level if you want -- but the AAA numbers showed the same trends -- do those numbers also lack "substance"?  Also, do you realize how hypocritical it is to dismiss the LD/Pull/GB rates over a full season AAA/MLB and then turn around and use triple slash stats on a month to month basis?   If the predictive rates lack substance then what can be taken from looking at outcome stats that are pretty much useless for predictive purposes -- particularly since they shed no light on his actual usage.  Again, there was a significant change in how Cron went about hitting last year -- a change for the better even if the walk rate was static..

 

Anyway, when it's all said and done, you're saying he can't walk, and is worse than Trumbo.   I'm saying there is reason to believe that unlike Trumbo, Cron may yet be a work in progress and could still improve.  If Cron turns out better, he will be making us BOTH look dumb.  Let me be very clear, I was a very vocal Cron doubter.  There are things he's done since AA that are making me look beyond the weak walk rate -- and If you've read my posts, I'm a big fan of guys who get on base. 

 

 

 

You seem confident in him based on the adjustments he's made and the small MLB sample size, but you haven't indicated how well you think he'll do. 

 

What do you expect out of him this year and going forward? 

Edited January 6, 2015 by Poozy

[Inside Pitch]

You seem confident in him based on the adjustments he's made and the small MLB sample size, but you haven't indicated how well you think he'll do. 

 

What do you expect out of him this year and going forward? 

 

See -- that's just it, I'm not confident of anything yet, I think you believe I'm higher on him than I am...  if anything I've gone from a skeptic to someone wanting to see what he does next....   What I can tell you is I did track those rates two years ago and was really happy to see the changes from day one of 2014.  Despite that I remained skeptical even in AAA because SLC and the PCL in general can make it hard to really judge a hitter but the trends carried over to Anaheim.   Had I not watched him a lot in AA (Because i was down on him) I don't know that I'd be willing to give him this much credit but there really was an obvious shift in how he attacked the ball.   Not trying to dodge your question but I don't have any set numbers that I'm really expecting so much as I believe that If those rates carry over, he likely improves on his triple slash lines from last year -- the ability to elevate and drive pitches is a tangible thing and he was doing that, something he wasn't doing at all in AA..  

 

Bigger picture, I'm with you 100% on his needing to improve his walk rate -- otherwise he will need to hit better for a better average than Trumbo to really justify his spot on the roster.   You can't have a guy making outs 70% of the time, even if he were to evolve into the 30 HR hitter that Scotty believes he can be that many outs is a negative.   

Edited January 6, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[m0nkey]

This thread is like a damn novel

[Docwaukee]

I think I'm one of the few people that views Cron as a very different type of player than Trumbo.  

 

They both have tremendous power, but that's where the comparison stops as far as I'm concerned.  

 

I see Cron as an all or nothing type of player whereas Trumbo's ability to play multiple positions will allow him to stick around because he's easier to find a place for.  

 

CJ is a horrific defender but he's actually a much more polished hitter.  He's better at making contact and from what I have seen is much better at recognizing certain pitches.  He swings and misses less and is much better at making contact at ball out of the zone.  So he'll always hit for a higher avg.  The big nit will be whether he can learn to lay off pitches he can't make hard contact on which Trumbo has not shown the ability to do.  

 

Players with a bb rate of less than or equal to 5% who hit less than .270 and can't play defense just don't stick.  There are 3 DH seasons in the last 50 years that meet this criteria.  Three.  

 

So he's either going to learn how to take a walk or hit for a decent average or he's just gonna flame out.  

[Second Base]

I think the Angels are just going to have a #5 hitter that hits .270 with 25-30 HR's and not much else. Speaking from a purely offensive standpoint, yeah that's sort of like Trumbo.

[ELEVEN]

I think I'm one of the few people that views Cron as a very different type of player than Trumbo.  

 

They both have tremendous power, but that's where the comparison stops as far as I'm concerned.  

 

I see Cron as an all or nothing type of player whereas Trumbo's ability to play multiple positions will allow him to stick around because he's easier to find a place for.  

 

CJ is a horrific defender but he's actually a much more polished hitter.  He's better at making contact and from what I have seen is much better at recognizing certain pitches.  He swings and misses less and is much better at making contact at ball out of the zone.  So he'll always hit for a higher avg.  The big nit will be whether he can learn to lay off pitches he can't make hard contact on which Trumbo has not shown the ability to do.  

 

Players with a bb rate of less than or equal to 5% who hit less than .270 and can't play defense just don't stick.  There are 3 DH seasons in the last 50 years that meet this criteria.  Three.  

 

So he's either going to learn how to take a walk or hit for a decent average or he's just gonna flame out.  

Who are the 3?

[Inside Pitch]

Who are the 3?

Well, using Fangraphs search engine and looking at DHs since 1972, the only player to post a walk rate of 5% or lower who also failed to hit .270 was Dick Davis -- but those numbers are career numbers and not limited to single DH seasons.    Expand that search to include 1B and you get names like Bob Oliver, Randall Simon, and Kevin Jordan.   

Edited January 6, 2015 by Inside Pitch

[Docwaukee]

Who are the 3?

George Bell 1992 0.4 WAR

Jose Guillen 2008 -0.6 WAR

Delmon Young 2012 -1.0 WAR

 

It's just so rare for the way his current skill set translates that he would have sustained success.  I actually think he's got a much better chance of busting through by having a higher average than improving his walk rate.  But the odds are very much against him unless he can do at least one of those things.  

[Inside Pitch]

George Bell 1992 0.4 WAR

Jose Guillen 2008 -0.6 WAR

Delmon Young 2012 -1.0 WAR

 

It's just so rare for the way his current skill set translates that he would have sustained success.  I actually think he's got a much better chance of busting through by having a higher average than improving his walk rate.  But the odds are very much against him unless he can do at least one of those things.  

 

He really is just an oddity.   He's clearly got a pretty good eye which has translated into very strong contact skills, but he brings along really weak OBP skills, he's slow as hell which will likely bring his batting average down.   

[Second Base]

If Cron has the offensive numbers Guillen did, I'd say that's pretty damn good for someone lots of folks don't believe in. I'd take that.