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SB Nation: The Angels have a BP problem


laagamer

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"So the bullpen is a problem waiting to be solved. You could argue about the depth charts, but the point is that the Angels will be giving a lot of bullpen innings to relievers who aren't quite as good as last year's stable."

 

That's news to me. 

 

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/12/29/7458783/los-angeles-angels-bullpen-problems-jepsen-grilli

Edited by laagamer
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"So the bullpen is a problem waiting to be solved. You could argue about the depth charts, but the point is that the Angels will be giving a lot of bullpen innings to relievers who aren't quite as good as last year's stable."

 

That's news to me. 

 

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/12/29/7458783/los-angeles-angels-bullpen-problems-jepsen-grilli

 

He comes to the conclusion by comparing 2014 fWAR of 3.7 to projected 2015 fWAR of 0.2 . That's tied with the Nationals for largest difference of any team. My question is... how accurate are the fWAR projections?

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I think we have a number of arms that are likely to be merely average next season, including Ramos, Salas, and Morin. I'd love to see another lockdown arm brought in, like Joe Smith.

That being said, there is a lot of depth, and some guys may step up and exceed expectations.

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WAR projections for relievers are awesome.  

 

I can see what they are saying in terms of regression, but the pen has solid talent, good depth, and strong versatility.  It's probably not going to be as good as it was in the second half of last year, but somewhere between the first and second half puts them in the upper third.  

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I guess he believes Jepsen and Grilli were the mainstays of the bullpen, even though Grilli was a mid season trade and was just a little above average for the Angels as opposed to Frieri that was miserable. Jepsen, as we all know, is a flake and due for regression for his one good season. Trading him may turn out to be best for a bullpen that needs steady production.

 

The author shrugs off Morin (126 ERA+) as though he was not more valuable than Grilli (106 ERA+). I can see Morin securing the 7th inning duties and mentoring to be either the 8th inning guy or possibly closer but behind him is a stable of good arms to take up any bullpen slack that were not ready last season.

 

This reads more like a sales pitch for slack arm retreads on the market that the Angels don't need. Relievers are flakes, the list the author provided for the Angels to explore are just that. None have a current resume worth chasing.

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Hmm. I only skimmed the article, but from what I gather I agree that some regression for Street & Smith is to be expected, and possibly for Morin. But Morin is also young and can improve, the same with Bedrosian. Pestano is a nice sleeper pick to be a substantial contributor. And then you have Rasmus and Santiago, both of whom could be terrific as relievers-only. I don't expect a lot from Ramos and Salas, but they are decent.

I greatly dislike using projected fWAR for relievers. I'm also wondering what the projected fWAR for last year's bullpen was - certainly it wasn't nearly as good as it turned out being.

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Morin likely stumbled late from not being used to the MLB workload.

Now that he is, maybe he and Rasmus combine to give the Halos great 7th/8th inning pitching to lead in to Smith/Street?

Pestano is also close to being back to his 2011-12 form.

Ramos will prove to be a solid guy to have. 

 

And that doesn't include depth in Salas, Bedrock Jr., Gott, Reynolds, McBryde, etc.

 

The bullpen seems deep enough to me.

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Hmm. I only skimmed the article, but from what I gather I agree that some regression for Street & Smith is to be expected, and possibly for Morin. But Morin is also young and can improve, the same with Bedrosian. Pestano is a nice sleeper pick to be a substantial contributor. And then you have Rasmus and Santiago, both of whom could be terrific as relievers-only. I don't expect a lot from Ramos and Salas, but they are decent.

I greatly dislike using projected fWAR for relievers. I'm also wondering what the projected fWAR for last year's bullpen was - certainly it wasn't nearly as good as it turned out being.

It was pretty much dead on until JD fixed the pen from top to bottom.  

 

But I agree that WAR projections are pretty bad for relievers.  

 

Adding an additional relief arm is also probably the easiest thing to upgrade during the season.  

 

A forgotten man in this could be DDLR who was great in 2013 and injured last year.  

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I feel like the guy that wrote this article probably doesn't watch too many Angel games. Grilli was solid, yes. But he certainly wasn't better than Morin or Pestano and was probably equally as good as Salas.

Jepsen on the other hand was lights out last year. And for the four years before that, he was erratic and just all around terrible. You'll have to excuse me if I trust Kevin Jepsen about as far as I can throw him.

The way I see it, some regression is due from Smith/Street, but having Street for a full year over Frieri offsets that regression. Salas will be every bit as good as Grilli was and Morin I believe is better than Kevin Jepsen.

Plus now we've added Pestano to the mix and Ramos and possibly Santiago will anchor things down there for multiple innings and against lefties.

My point, the Angels bullpen should be better in 2015 than it was in 2014, and I doubt the author was aware if this. You can't just look at WAR and projected WAR and pretend a problem exists, especially with RP's.

Edited by ScottyA_MWAH
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The bullpen could potentially be a problem, but it could just as easily be very good. 2 years for Grilli?  No, thanks.   Jepsen is due to have a less effective year.

 

The Angels showed last year that a bullpen can be rebuilt more easily than anything else.  Relievers are volatile.  I like the approach the Angels are taking with the bullpen.  They spend a bit at times for reliable guys, but they don't go overboard.  There's no need to when there's so many cheap guys that may very well perform better than proven guys.  

 

Cory Rasmus is legit.  I think some are sleeping on that.  

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The author obviously never had the opportunity to enjoy watching hitters feast on the Jepson meatball surprise. If Jepson and Grill were that important to the bullpen, I have a hard time thinking that Dipoto missed that info.

 

I hate the offseason.

and if the pen blows up as a result, it would have been impossible to anticipate.  

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Regression from Street? Why exactly? I don't see any reason for him to not be as dominate. Dude is a great closer.

 

Well, his career ERA is 2.82 and he put up a 1.37 ERA last year(the best of his career). Regression seems very likely if not inevitable tbh. Doesn't mean he still won't be very good for them

 

The pen looks fine to me, and I'm factoring Santiago being a part of it eventually(when Richards returns)

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I guess he believes Jepsen and Grilli were the mainstays of the bullpen, even though Grilli was a mid season trade and was just a little above average for the Angels as opposed to Frieri that was miserable. Jepsen, as we all know, is a flake and due for regression for his one good season. Trading him may turn out to be best for a bullpen that needs steady production.

 

The author shrugs off Morin (126 ERA+) as though he was not more valuable than Grilli (106 ERA+). I can see Morin securing the 7th inning duties and mentoring to be either the 8th inning guy or possibly closer but behind him is a stable of good arms to take up any bullpen slack that were not ready last season.

 

This reads more like a sales pitch for slack arm retreads on the market that the Angels don't need. Relievers are flakes, the list the author provided for the Angels to explore are just that. None have a current resume worth chasing.

Jepsen was a mainstay. Of course, the regression he's due for is no longer our problem. Have fun, Rays fans. Both of you.

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The author obviously never had the opportunity to enjoy watching hitters feast on the Jepson meatball surprise. If Jepson and Grill were that important to the bullpen, I have a hard time thinking that Dipoto missed that info.

 

I hate the offseason.

I agree with everything but the off season remark. I for one much enjoy the off season complete with the crap writing and predictions that go along with it, including mine. Dropping Jepsen when the Angels did is (IMO) telling, and most likely Dipoto's best move to date. Jerry sold one of our less valuable pieces higher than I ever expected. Kudos for him. 

Grilli received a reprieve last season when the Angels signed him, and by rights could not have landed in a better place this season. If anyone can help him grind out more success, it's Atlanta. Although, I believe he will move downward on Atlanta's depth chart as the season progresses.

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