What to expect from Albert Pujols next season?

[QuinlansMinion]

He had over 600 ab's last year with 28 homers.  Is it safe to say his power is dwindling? 

[Angel Oracle]

I will be a happy camper if he returns to even an .850 OPS.

 

I would also like to see a similar ratio in 2015 to 2014 between 1B starts and DH starts.

He raked as a DH in 2014.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Angel Oracle

[Angelsjunky]

The trajectory has not been good - Pujols has been declining for five years and it is practically unheard of that a player has magical turnaround at 35 years old. At this point the best we can hope for is health and perhaps minor fluctuation upward. In other words, he might hit .280/.340/.500 with 30 HR next year, but that's about all we can hope for and it would be nothing more than fluctuation upward (normal positive regression).

Edited December 3, 2014 by Angelsjunky

[QuinlansMinion]

Thats why I want more offense.  Trout is going to be great for many years, but a lot of his talent could be wasted hitting in front of Pujols.

[CanadianHalo]

I think this past season was the best we'll see from Albert in a Angels uniform

[m0nkey]

Garbage

[santini1]

The trajectory has not been good - Pujols has been declining for five years and it is practically unheard of that a player has magical turnaround at 35 years old. At this point the best we can hope for is health and perhaps minor fluctuation upward. In other words, he might hit .280/.340/.500 with 30 HR next year, but that's about all we can hope for and it would be nothing more than fluctuation upward (normal positive regression).

To be fair, those are pretty great numbers today..

Just for comparison, these are the number of players that reached each milestone in 2014, 2010 (Albert's last year with SL) and 2006 (one of his best seasons).

2014:

30 HR - 11

.840 OPS- 19

.300 BA- 17

2010:

30HR - 18

.840 OPS- 42

.300 BA- 23

2006:

30 HR- 34

.840 OPS- 61

.300 BA - 38

Yes, Pujols' production is going downward but I thibk a lot of the regression is inflated . He doesnt belong in the elite group anymore but for a player who is heading into his year 35 season i would say if he gave us the .numbers you suggested, i take it. It translates to what, maybe 35 HR, .875 OPS , .290-.295 BA season in 06-08? Again not bad at all for a 35 year old..

[Troll Daddy]

Thats why I want more offense. Trout is going to be great for many years, but a lot of his talent could be wasted hitting in front of Pujols.

Ok, so who should he bat in front of?

[tomsred]

Ok, so who should he bat in front of?

 

Pujols.

[Ochocinco!]

Not expecting much.

[Glen]

He'll never hit 30+HR again in a season. The Machine is worn down.

[Glen]

Ok, so who should he bat in front of?

Calhoun. Switch them in the lineup.

[Chuck]

Expect what we saw in 2014, hope he exceeds those numbers. 

 

I don't think he'll be any worse than what we saw last season. 

[Adam]

Really wish he would be more selective at the plate. I can't wait until he shows up at ST in the best shape of his life.

[Angelsjunky]

Yes, Pujols' production is going downward but I thibk a lot of the regression is inflated . He doesnt belong in the elite group anymore but for a player who is heading into his year 35 season i would say if he gave us the .numbers you suggested, i take it. It translates to what, maybe 35 HR, .875 OPS , .290-.295 BA season in 06-08? Again not bad at all for a 35 year old..

 

That's probably about right. We do have tools, however, to make such comparisons. Take wRC+, for instance. From 2008 to 2014:

 

184, 180, 164, 147, 133, 112, 124

 

Hey, Albert actually went up last year after five straight years of decline (OK, four - we can't really call 198 to 180 "decline").

 

Albert's 124 wRC+ makes him 40th in the major leagues this year and 24% better than the average AL hitter. To put that in context, in 2008 - Albert's best year and still in the "roid ball era" - Joey Votto has a 124 wRC+ in his rookie year, hitting .297/.368/.506. So a .790 OPS for the Angels (in a pitcher's park) in 2014 translates roughly to a .874 OPS in 2008 for the Reds (in a hitter's park). Or to bring it a little closer to home, Vlad Guerrero hit .303/.365/.521 with a 129 wRC+ for the Angels in 2008.

 

So yeah, I think Albert's numbers this year would have translated to about .290/.350/.520 with maybe 33 HR. Still a far cry from what he actually hit in 2008, which was .357/.462/.653.

[Glen]

Really wish he would be more selective at the plate. I can't wait until he shows up at ST in the best shape of his life.

And then a month into the season we'll hear about some nagging injury...

[laagamer]

He should DH full time. His offensive production is what's important.

[QuinlansMinion]

Ok, so who should he bat in front of?

As of right now I have no idea. I wish we could bring in a legitimate impact bat, but all of our money is tied up in Pujols and Hamilton. Actually I should say Artes money, since its not my money.

[yk9001]

Is the time stamp broken, or were people really having a back and forth about this at 3:00 am this morning?

[beatlesrule]

Expect what we saw in 2014, hope he exceeds those numbers. 

 

I don't think he'll be any worse than what we saw last season. 

 

I don't see him hitting over 28 hr ever again.

[Mark68]

I think he's got one more year of a .900ish OPS left in him. It's more likely to be this year than any other year he has left.

So, I expect an OPS between .875 and .925 this year.

Then a steady decline.

[Chuck]

I don't see him hitting over 28 hr ever again.

 

I don't see how he couldn't. 

[QuinlansMinion]

I don't see how he couldn't. 

I have more faith in him than I do Hamilton.  But like I said, he had a full season last year of over 600 ab's.  Hes another year older, I dont see any reason why he would suddenly improve.  Unless there was a problem these last few seasons we werent aware of.

[beatlesrule]

I don't see how he couldn't. 

 

He is not nearly as good as he used to be.  He's look over matched in a lot of at bats.  A hall of famer like him should not have looked so clueless against the Royals.  I don't even see him hitting 600 career home runs.

[Angel Oracle]

I wouldn't go that far.   He's only 80 HRs away from 600.

 

Is it possible he could have a two year Big Poopy type resurgence in 2015-16, before the permanent decline accelerates?

 

CJ Cron needs to accelerate his defensive work in the next couple of seasons.

I think he can still be a solid .800s OPS guy at the MLB level, but will he become solid enough defensively at 1B to allow Pujols to become the permanent DH by around 2017?

Edited December 3, 2014 by Angel Oracle