Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

What to expect from Albert Pujols next season?


Recommended Posts

The trajectory has not been good - Pujols has been declining for five years and it is practically unheard of that a player has magical turnaround at 35 years old. At this point the best we can hope for is health and perhaps minor fluctuation upward. In other words, he might hit .280/.340/.500 with 30 HR next year, but that's about all we can hope for and it would be nothing more than fluctuation upward (normal positive regression).

Edited by Angelsjunky
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The trajectory has not been good - Pujols has been declining for five years and it is practically unheard of that a player has magical turnaround at 35 years old. At this point the best we can hope for is health and perhaps minor fluctuation upward. In other words, he might hit .280/.340/.500 with 30 HR next year, but that's about all we can hope for and it would be nothing more than fluctuation upward (normal positive regression).

To be fair, those are pretty great numbers today..

Just for comparison, these are the number of players that reached each milestone in 2014, 2010 (Albert's last year with SL) and 2006 (one of his best seasons).

2014:

30 HR - 11

.840 OPS- 19

.300 BA- 17

2010:

30HR - 18

.840 OPS- 42

.300 BA- 23

2006:

30 HR- 34

.840 OPS- 61

.300 BA - 38

Yes, Pujols' production is going downward but I thibk a lot of the regression is inflated . He doesnt belong in the elite group anymore but for a player who is heading into his year 35 season i would say if he gave us the .numbers you suggested, i take it. It translates to what, maybe 35 HR, .875 OPS , .290-.295 BA season in 06-08? Again not bad at all for a 35 year old..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, Pujols' production is going downward but I thibk a lot of the regression is inflated . He doesnt belong in the elite group anymore but for a player who is heading into his year 35 season i would say if he gave us the .numbers you suggested, i take it. It translates to what, maybe 35 HR, .875 OPS , .290-.295 BA season in 06-08? Again not bad at all for a 35 year old..

 

That's probably about right. We do have tools, however, to make such comparisons. Take wRC+, for instance. From 2008 to 2014:

 

184, 180, 164, 147, 133, 112, 124

 

Hey, Albert actually went up last year after five straight years of decline (OK, four - we can't really call 198 to 180 "decline").

 

Albert's 124 wRC+ makes him 40th in the major leagues this year and 24% better than the average AL hitter. To put that in context, in 2008 - Albert's best year and still in the "roid ball era" - Joey Votto has a 124 wRC+ in his rookie year, hitting .297/.368/.506. So a .790 OPS for the Angels (in a pitcher's park) in 2014 translates roughly to a .874 OPS in 2008 for the Reds (in a hitter's park). Or to bring it a little closer to home, Vlad Guerrero hit .303/.365/.521 with a 129 wRC+ for the Angels in 2008.

 

So yeah, I think Albert's numbers this year would have translated to about .290/.350/.520 with maybe 33 HR. Still a far cry from what he actually hit in 2008, which was .357/.462/.653.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't go that far.   He's only 80 HRs away from 600.

 

Is it possible he could have a two year Big Poopy type resurgence in 2015-16, before the permanent decline accelerates?

 

CJ Cron needs to accelerate his defensive work in the next couple of seasons.

I think he can still be a solid .800s OPS guy at the MLB level, but will he become solid enough defensively at 1B to allow Pujols to become the permanent DH by around 2017?

Edited by Angel Oracle
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...