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Toronto--Russell Martin--$85 million, 5 years


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Martin really helps them in 2015/2016, which are the years the Jays are really contending in. 

 

He's about a 3-4 WAR guy right now. Knock off about 0.5 WAR per year after 2015. You end up with around 11-13 WAR over the 5 years. Fangraphs estimated that 1 WAR on the free agent market is worth about 6 million dollars. Martin would end up being worth around 66-78 million dollars, which isn't too far off from his total.

 

This doesn't even account for his pitch framing, which was worth about 20 runs in 2014. 

 

I know people always find reasons to b*tch about money in baseball but this deal isn't batshit crazy like people are claiming. It's a pretty fair deal for a very good catcher. 

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Martin really helps them in 2015/2016, which are the years the Jays are really contending in. 

 

He's about a 3-4 WAR guy right now. Knock off about 0.5 WAR per year after 2015. You end up with around 11-13 WAR over the 5 years. Fangraphs estimated that 1 WAR on the free agent market is worth about 6 million dollars. Martin would end up being worth around 66-78 million dollars, which isn't too far off from his total.

 

This doesn't even account for his pitch framing, which was worth about 20 runs in 2014. 

 

I know people always find reasons to b*tch about money in baseball but this deal isn't batshit crazy like people are claiming. It's a pretty fair deal for a very good catcher. 

 

 

i have to disagree, respectfully. this is his age 32 season, how long do you project him behind the plate? are you placing the entire value of the contract in the first 3 years with the last two basically being water under the bridge at that point? honest questions.

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i have to disagree, respectfully. this is his age 32 season, how long do you project him behind the plate? are you placing the entire value of the contract in the first 3 years with the last two basically being water under the bridge at that point? honest questions.

People often just look at the last years of the deal without realizing how much excess value they get up front. I think Martin is going to be his usual self for the next 2 years. If he has a hard decline after those years, then this deal may look bad. If he declines but not drastically, then I think the deal is fine. 

 

He's played behind the plate every year and seemed to do fine last year. I guess the biggest thing I would worry about is health but he hasn't showed many health issues. I think this deal is actually a relatively low risk deal. It's hard to find catchers like this. When you're a FA, your price tag will be inflated. 

 

Just my 2 cents. 

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People often just look at the last years of the deal without realizing how much excess value they get up front. I think Martin is going to be his usual self for the next 2 years. If he has a hard decline after those years, then this deal may look bad. If he declines but not drastically, then I think the deal is fine. 

 

He's played behind the plate every year and seemed to do fine last year. I guess the biggest thing I would worry about is health but he hasn't showed many health issues. I think this deal is actually a relatively low risk deal. It's hard to find catchers like this. When you're a FA, your price tag will be inflated. 

 

Just my 2 cents. 

 

i figured you were placing the real value at the first 3 years. you said two, but i give him credit for having a good shot at 3. here's how i look at it, if they win a world series, then all contracts are worth it or forgiven. as it would be with any team. if they don't, then you have to look at the value you are getting. i think almost everyone would agree that 5 years is too long a term for a 32 year old catcher, considering how catchers crap out around 34 or 35, but the FA market has it's own demands. 

 

i figure they can get 3 starting catcher years out of him, 32-35, which leaves 2 backup catcher years, in regards to performance. an experienced backup catcher's market value is around 1, maybe 2, million per year, based off of existing backup catcher contracts.

 

that means if they get 3 really good years of starting catcher out of him, which places him at 35 years old with 2 backup type seasons ahead of him, then he has to be worth 27 million per year the first three years. considering most good starting catchers are making around 5+ million per year, that's quite a discrepancy.

Edited by ukyah
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WOW -- a lot of money for a catcher who's best years may be behind him.

 

I like Martin when he came up with LA-- he was a very good catcher defensively.

 

Toronto signing him and using that much of their available payroll dollars for the catching  position for a now well traveled veteran?

 

I don't know.

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Honestly, I'd rather have Mathis on a 1 year low dollar deal than this albatross. Just like I'd take J.B. Schuck on a 1 year low dollar deal for what's left on Hambone's deal in a second.

 

wonder if Mathis was available........

 

The Marlins actually exercised Mathis' team option to keep him on the team for 2015.

 

Here are the remaining options in free agency, slim pickings to try to replace Conger at this point:

 

Catchers

J.P. Arencibia (29)

John Buck (34)  -- Angels actually non-tendered him, so we're likely out

Ryan Doumit (34)

Chris Gimenez (32)

Brett Hayes (31)

Nick Hundley (31)

Gerald Laird (35)

Wil Nieves (36)

A.J. Pierzynski (38)

David Ross (38)

Geovany Soto (32)

Edited by ScottLux
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