Could Trout Already Be in Decline?

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

How can a 23 year old player be in decline?

Geez

Some people are at their peak or decline when they're 18 or even younger. 

[dimitrig]

Some people are at their peak or decline when they're 18 or even younger. 

 

Lindsay Lohan

[seenoevil]

lol

[Angelsjunky]

How can a 23 year old player be in decline?

Geez

 

There are players who peak early. Actually, when I was doing some research a year or two about comparable players to Trout, the cautionary tale was Cesar Cedeno. Cedeno came into the big leagues in 1970 at age 19, then had his best years by a good margin in 1972-73 at age 21-22. He was still a good player through his 20s, but not the superstar he had been at age 21-22.

 

But most players of Trout's caliber don't decline at age 23. At worst they don't get better--and for all-time greats that's rather frequent, as many greats are great from early on. But very few players who are great at a very young age don't continue to be great at least through their 20s.

[Troll Daddy]

Young athletes under 30 don't decline physically .... the game catches up with them. Some players can adjust their skills and some can't .

[ScottT]

There's a big difference between peaking early and being in decline.  The idea that Trout could be in decline is ludicrous... seems like somewhat of headline grabber after skimming the article.  It may be difficult for him to top what he's already done, but even if he never does, he could still be an all time great. I'm optimistic he can make adjustments to improve upon his weakness since it isn't a matter of chasing pitches outside the zone... nor is it a problem with offspeed pitches.  He's young... his bat isn't slow.   A high fastball seems like something he can adjust to.  Part of it, too, is just a matter of being a little more aggressive.  He can definitely make that adjustment.  

[Angelsjunky]

There's a big difference between peaking early and being in decline.  The idea that Trout could be in decline is ludicrous... seems like somewhat of headline grabber after skimming the article.  It may be difficult for him to top what he's already done, but even if he never does, he could still be an all time great. I'm optimistic he can make adjustments to improve upon his weakness since it isn't a matter of chasing pitches outside the zone... nor is it a problem with offspeed pitches.  He's young... his bat isn't slow.   A high fastball seems like something he can adjust to.  Part of it, too, is just a matter of being a little more aggressive.  He can definitely make that adjustment.  

 

I agree that Trout isn't necessarily or even likely in decline. But the idea isn't "ludicrous." Why? Because 2014 was an overall decline from 2012-13. Furthermore, in terms of speed and defense we have not one year of decline but two. Trout's speed and defense was best in 2012, then 2013, then 2014. His bat was best in 2013 and then 2012 and 2014 are about the same, but in different ways.

 

Chances are Trout will never go back to stealing ~50 bases in a year. And chances are he won't try to go back to his plate approach from 2012-13. But here's the two questions: 1) Will he be able to gain a touch of speed back and improve his defense and baserunning? 2) Will he be able to combine the best qualities of 2013 and 2014 at the plate by reducing strikeouts but keeping the extra power?

 

If the answer is "no" to both then I think we can say that Trout peaked early, in 2012-13, but that he might not necessarily be in decline, just with a lower plateau. If the answer is "yes" to both questions it means that he's going to improve and be even better going forward. Chances are the answer is somewhere in between a double no or a double yes.

Edited November 16, 2014 by Angelsjunky

[ScottT]

We must have very different ideas of what "in decline" means.  

[70runner]

Is he really 23?  Did Pujols help him certify his birth record?  Did Trout ever visit the Dominican Republic?

[Second Base]

I think we already know what changed he'll make. #1 Become more aggressive early in the count, #2 lay off the high ones.

Once he does that you'll probably see his BA jump back up to .300+ and OBP .400+.

The power is what it is. Consistent 30 HR power. The SB will NOT be returning. Scioscia won't send him, Dipoto doesn't want him getting hurt and Trout will pick his spots carefully.

I think you'll see .300/.400 30 DB 30 HR and 20 SB moving forward. His defense will be under rated for as long as defensive metrics lag behind. Trout reaches balls in the gap 90% of CF even those that have gold gloves haven't a prayer at. His leaping ability also gives him the chance to catch balls against and over the wall. While his arm isn't plus, he's always on target.

I don't know what WAR will look like but I'm guessing 8-9 WAR and MVP's abound.

[ScottT]

I would like to see more stolen bases.  Not because of 40/40, 30/30, or any indivdual garbage... but because runs are tougher to score now than in decades.... and because Trout is a great base stealer.  Also... the hitters behind him are prone to grounding into double plays.  

 

Defensive metrics still leave a lot to be desired.  The wild swings are indicative of that.  The other day I heard Kevin Millar say he led LF in range factor on year. Funny.  

[Count Orlok]

When you start out like he did there's nowhere to go but down.

[Docwaukee]

His first year he robbed a few more hrs than he did the last couple and got a ton of defensive credit for those.  But the total numbers aren't that greatly different.  He also got put in LF to start 2013 and when he went back to CF it took him a little time to get get back to normal.  

 

But let's look at the raw numbers.  

Of the 350 or so balls that were supposed to be caught 100% of the time, each year he missed a couple.  2 in 2012, 3 in 2013, and 3 in 2014.

Of the balls likely to be caught (60-90%), he was better in 2014 than his previous two years.  He missed 3 of 15 in 2012, 2 of 12 in 2013, and 1 of 17 in 2014.

Of balls even (40-60%), he missed none out of five this year and 2 each in 2012 and 2013 out of 8 each year.

Of the unlikely (10-40%), he was 2 of 4 in 2012, 4 of 5 in 2013, and 2 of 3 in 2014 

Of the remote (0-10%), he 4 of 11 in 2012 (probably a couple of those robbed hrs), 2 of 9 in 2013, and 0 for 11 in 2014.  

 

what this tells me is that minor and probably random variation likely had more to do with his metrics being down than anything. Adam Jones' stats were virtually identical this year.  In fact, Jones got to fewer ball in the 1-60% range than Trout and above 60%, Trout missed on more ball than Jones.  

[Brent Maguire]

People are freaking out about this article without actually reading it. He brings up good(although not very original) points. 

 

Trout put up historical seasons in 2012/2013. He wasn't going to be an elite defender/hitter/runner his whole career. Defense and speed statistically age right from the get go so we weren't going to see Trout post 10+ WAR seasons year in and year out. 

 

Now, there's nothing wrong with Trout's 2014 season. He was still pretty clearly the best position player in baseball so there isn't much to complain about. He's still going to be an elite hitter at an up the middle position heading into his prime. I do think the days of 40+ stolen bases and elite defense are gone but he's still a safe bet to be a 7-9 WAR guy for the next several years. 

[disarcina]

Trout is in decline........three MVP like seasons, one actual MVP award --- two seasons of finishing second in MVP vote (one of which he could have easily been the winner except he was a rookie).

 

yeah,  he's in decline.......

 

I don't think anyone is going to match his numbers for the first three seasons in MLB any time soon.

[YouthofToday]

Trout has 3 MVP awards to me. It is not his fault the BBWAA are utterly incompetent.

Let's put Google and Facebook in charge of balloting.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Dont most young guys peak early?...