Could Trout Already Be in Decline?

[Ray McKigney]

Contrary to the thread and article title, it is actually a positive article with a lot of interesting insight. Good read. Sorry if it's a craig. Looked and didn't see it posted yet, but I could be wrong. 

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/scorseses-oscar-mike-trout-finally-won-the-mvp-but-could-he-already-be-in-decline/

Edited November 14, 2014 by Ray McKigney

[Lhalo]

The Wolf of Wall Street was awesome. Scorsese isn't in decline.

[Reveille1984]

Like the article stated, it seems he's already moving towards the "old guy" skillset - OBP, power and K's over speed and defense.  And guys that get to that point rarely just do a complete 180 back towards their original playstyles.  I doubt we'll ever see Trout get near 50 steals again or hit for .330-.340 on a consistent basis.

 

He'll probably settle in somewhere between his rookie season and his past season in the coming years as he makes whatever adjustment he can to the high heat and ups his discipline a little more.  Something like .300/.390./.550 with 20-30 SB's and 30-35 HR's.  When you come into the league as a 10 WAR player, it's pretty much impossible not to regress.

[wopphil]

I think Trout will always struggle with the high pitch, but will adjust and won't strike out as much going forward.

I also think a return to 30+ stolen bases is possible. His stolen base percentage this year was still great, he just didn't run as much. He has plenty of speed to steal bases at an elite clip.

I would expect that Trout will settle in as a guy who goes .300/.400/.550/.950 the next 6+ years. He will be a perennial MVP candidate.

[ukyah]

23 years old, people. twenty three. 

[Blarg]

Yeah, too bad because the guy was a monster when he was 21 and 22.

[Mark68]

What an old fart.

[floplag]

oh FFS i hate our fanbase at times....

[Blarg]

The author looks like he just completed his freshman year in high school.

[Jay]

The author looks like he just completed his freshman year in high school.

 

He looks like the "real life" Ferris Bueller.

[Mark68]

The author looks like he just completed his freshman year in high school.

Then of course he's going to think Trout is in decline because Trout is much older than he.

[T.G.]

Sure it's possible... I mean, aren't we all in decline?  But in reality, it's kind of silly to even consider such things.  The kid is as good as there is and I think it's more likely that he'll get better.  In some ways this was a learning year for him and he's entitled to that.

[Schildog]

trout's dominican birth certificate should be a red flag and a sign of decline.

[Angel Oracle]

I'm happy if he cuts the Ks back to about 120-140, and jumps the SBs back up to something like 30 out of 35.

[DowningRules]

Trout's season-high strikeout total could be a pitcher's worst nightmare for years to come:  Trout is fully aware that he struck out way too much in 2014.  He is also aware that he is going for the high fastball and not finding success. And that pitchers are using it against him.

 

Trout is an advanced hitter at 23 and has shown an ability to adjust.  He's still precocious at the plate but I predict that his strike zone shrinks more and more with each passing year as a reflection of the high strikeout total in the 2014 season. 

[Oz27]

oh FFS i hate our fanbase at times....

Yay for board-bashing posts about non-existent negativity. It's not contained in any of the posts here, or in the article itself either.

[YouthofToday]

He was not going to be a 10 WAR player for his entire career. Nobody really ever has been.

[tdawg87]

23 years old, people. twenty three.

Did you read the article?

[ukyah]

Did you read the article?

 

 

yes. i understand the tenor. i'm saying the dude is 23. it's very difficult to gauge any 23 year olds future.

[Angelsjunky]

yes. i understand the tenor. i'm saying the dude is 23. it's very difficult to gauge any 23 year olds future.

 

I agree, and I think as Bill James was quoted in the article, it is especially difficult to predict exceptional players. That said, I think it is OK to note that Mike Trout in 2014 was not as good as in 2012-13.

 

As for whether he'll improve going forward, there are two ways in which he was worse in 2014 than in 2012-13.

 

1) His increased strikeouts and inability to hit high heat. While his power increased, this led to a greatly reduced batting average.

2) His speed and defensive skills.

 

Historically speaking he's far more likely to improve the former than the latter, unless he's willing to trim up a bit and put a good amount of training into a leaner, less bulky, physique. Once you start going the bulky route it is hard to turn back.

 

But improve his hitting? Sure, I don't see why not. Trout is a remarkable talent, young, and has shown the ability to make adjustments.

[wopphil]

Frank Thomas struck out 112 times in his age 23 season, then cut his strikeouts into the 60-90 range for his next 10 seasons.

Miguel Cabrera struck out 148 times in his age 21 season, then started cutting back after that, all the way down into the 90 range in his age 27-30 seasons.

Adrian Beltre struck out over 100 times in 4 out of the 5 seasons between his age 24-28 seasons, and has not struck out 100 times since.

This is a problem Trout can and will correct.

[Angelsjunky]

Wolf of Wall Street is definitely one of my favorite Scorcese flicks. Shutter Island is another good recent one, and my girls loved Hugo which was well done. But I get the point, that Scorcese was overlooked for an Academy Award for years and years and finally got one for a movie that probably wasn't among his very best.

 

Trout getting the MVP for a year that wasn't as good as the couple prior isn't a new thing. Look at Alex Rodriguez in 2003. It was probably his third or fourth best year to that point, although he was still the best player in the AL in 2003 so like Trout in 2014, was rightly deserved.

[Oz27]

Frank Thomas struck out 112 times in his age 23 season, then cut his strikeouts into the 60-90 range for his next 10 seasons.

Miguel Cabrera struck out 148 times in his age 21 season, then started cutting back after that, all the way down into the 90 range in his age 27-30 seasons.

Adrian Beltre struck out over 100 times in 4 out of the 5 seasons between his age 24-28 seasons, and has not struck out 100 times since.

This is a problem Trout can and will correct.

Whilst he absolutely can correct it, there's also plenty of guys who strike out a lot when they're young and continue to do it. I'm confident he'll correct it, but it's far from guaranteed enough to say that he will.

[Docwaukee]

I'd be fine with the same Trout as last year, but if I had my dithers, I'd love to see him come to camp lean and mean.  Ready to steal some bags, play some killer D and hit a bunch of doubles and triples to the opposite field.  

[Troll Daddy]

How can a 23 year old player be in decline?

Geez