[MLBTradeRumors] Offseason Outlook for the Angels

[ukyah]

shit is getting weird when i start agreeing with eric notti more than once in a calendar week. although, i lean a little more toward the cardinal way of trading post 30 year old players coming on contract years for younger cheaper talent or their respective draft picks. having said that, notti's thoughts outline a valid plan.

Edited November 8, 2014 by ukyah

[Angelsjunky]

Notti, I agreed with your entire post until I got to this:

Keep Kendrick and Aybar together and don't Cespedes the 5 games for one like Oakland did. If Kendrick isn't bringing a #1 you are not filling his position with Green and getting the value out of the trade. Let him play out his contract and talk extension if he looks like he will age well for the next 3 years.

 

There is no way Kendrick is bringing a #1 or a #2 for that matter. But if they can get a #3 type who is young and/or with a good contract, you've got to go for it. While Howie is a good player and it would be easy to undervalue him, I think you are doing the opposite and overvaluing him.

[Blarg]

It would be less value to the Angels than losing the production for the other four games. It would be a Cespedes mistake. A number three is not that big of a difference maker in this rotation that doesn't need an overhaul and a number three/four can be bought. Don't trade for what you can buy.

[Brent Maguire]

A short term deal for a guy like McCarthy, Liriano or Peavy would be perfect. You really just need a guy who can get you to 2016/2017 and be decently effective. 

 

In 2016, we'll have Weaver, Richards, Shoemaker, Wilson, a healthy Skaggs, Santiago, Tropeano PLUS guys like Newcomb, Smith, McGowin and DeLoach knocking at the door. Add 1 starter to help you for 2015/2016 and I'll be happy. 

[Second Base]

Kendrick's value both to the team and the market is quite different than just a year ago. Last year, he didn't hold a ton of value and the Angeks were hoping to get a controllable inning eater for two years of Howie. After yet another solid season and a shallow 2B market ( as well as development of SP within the organization), the Angels simply aren't in need of innings. Now they need quality. They have a ton of guys who should be able to go 180+ innings with a 4 ERA or better right now in Weav, Wilson, Richards, Shoe, Santiago, Skaggs and or Tropeano.

What the Angels need is someone who is young but can serve in the middle of the rotation. Weav is on the downside, CJ could BS toast and they'd still look good long run with Richards, Shoe, Newcomb, Skaggs and Sanchez plus a plethora of "maybe" guys like Smith, McGowin, DeLoach and Wood.

If they could hedge their bet with a good #3 starter, you make that trade. Otherwise stay put. Angeks are good as is right now.

[Docwaukee]

I don't see the point of trading howie right for someone who is going to be a middle of the rotation starter going forward but maybe not quite that in 2015.  You can do that at the trade deadline if the season isn't going well.  The only value in trading Howie right now is getting someone that will help immediately.  Someone that combined with Green at second base provides more value to the team for 2015 than Howie and he would ever have started in the place of the guy acquired.  

 

If you don't realize immediate net positive for the 2015 season then he shouldn't be traded.  With what he stands to get us in return and who that person would displace in the rotation, is it likely to provide the value I mentioned?  Doubtful.  To me, it would have to be a young starter who can immediately step in and be a #3 with upside in the future to be a #2 or better to make it worth it.  I don't think Howie will bring that type of return though.  Moving him also doesn't provide you enough salary relief to where you'd be able to bring in enough to make up the difference because there are no major glaring weaknesses on the team such that one player at the price we could afford would make that big of a difference over anyone we already have.  

[Lou]

Notti, I agreed with your entire post until I got to this:

 

There is no way Kendrick is bringing a #1 or a #2 for that matter. But if they can get a #3 type who is young and/or with a good contract, you've got to go for it. While Howie is a good player and it would be easy to undervalue him, I think you are doing the opposite and overvaluing him.

 

i completely agree

[Second Base]

If you don't realize immediate net positive for the 2015 season then he shouldn't be traded. With what he stands to get us in return and who that person would displace in the rotation, is it likely to provide the value I mentioned? Doubtful. To me, it would have to be a young starter who can immediately step in and be a #3 with upside in the future to be a #2 or better to make it worth it. I don't think Howie will bring that type of return though. Moving him also doesn't provide you enough salary relief to where you'd be able to bring in enough to make up the difference because there are no major glaring weaknesses on the team such that one player at the price we could afford would make that big of a difference over anyone we already have.

Playing an advocate here, but shouldn't we differentiate where the value is coming from? Example, Angels had a great offense with Howie. Angels should have just as great of an offense with Grant Green (I know most don't but it but I do).

The real loss here would be in Howie's defense, but I feel that if the Angels got a young starter who slots between Richards and Shoe, the team would be slightly better off in 2015, but much better off long term.

I feel like right now, with the team as perfectly suited for the "win-now" mode the Angels are in, if they can maintain that competitiveness while putting themselves in the position to ensure future success, you have to make that move.

The Angels have a good thing going with how strong of a rotation Richards, Shoe, Skaggs, Newcomb, Ricardo Sanchez and Nick Tropeano provide in the future. They have some good depth pieces mixed in there as well, but if you could slot one more mid-front of the rotation SP to that group, the Angels would be lethal for many years to come.

[tomsred]

We're fine, guys. We have 25 players now.

 

25 players is never enough.  Last year we used 55 different players.  While that was a little above average (we normally use 45-50), we need solid contributions from players 26-45 as well.  We don't have enough quality depth yet.  Some of it will get taken care of during the year, but if we can effectively get much of it now, do it.

[Inside Pitch]

Playing an advocate here, but shouldn't we differentiate where the value is coming from? Example, Angels had a great offense with Howie. Angels should have just as great of an offense with Grant Green (I know most don't but it but I do).

The real loss here would be in Howie's defense, but I feel that if the Angels got a young starter who slots between Richards and Shoe, the team would be slightly better off in 2015, but much better off long term.

I feel like right now, with the team as perfectly suited for the "win-now" mode the Angels are in, if they can maintain that competitiveness while putting themselves in the position to ensure future success, you have to make that move.

The Angels have a good thing going with how strong of a rotation Richards, Shoe, Skaggs, Newcomb, Ricardo Sanchez and Nick Tropeano provide in the future. They have some good depth pieces mixed in there as well, but if you could slot one more mid-front of the rotation SP to that group, the Angels would be lethal for many years to come.

 

The better question might be a question of value to who?  The Angels or across baseball?  Fans as a whole seem to base their idea of value based on past statistical plateaus vs. current league wide trends.... this is most evident in any conversation of hitters where a guy with a sub .850 OPS gets written off as if it were still 2003.  

 

Baseball has seen a pretty sudden shift in recent years, due things such as the shift and umps being forced to accurately call balls and strikes there is a relative glut of pitching compared to years past, and offense is again at a premium.  Depending on whether you're a devotee of FGs or BBRef, Kendrick was either a 4.6 or 5.4 WAR player last season.  He's averaged an OPS+ of 116 (16.4 bWar), the last four years, plays solid to above average defense up the middle and he's played in at least 140 games in 4 of the last 5 years.  Throw in a salary of 9.5 mil, and you have one of the better values in MLB.   Just for the sake of comparison, Hanley Ramirez is considered one of if not the best available bat this offseason, he's posted a OPS+ of 125 (10.5 bWar), over the last 4 years, he's managed to play in more than 128 games ONCE in the last five years and there isn't a whole lot of support for his remaining an IFer.   This isn't to say that Kendrick is Hanley light or anything along those lines, but we are talking about a guy that's owed 9.5 and could possibly net a team a first rounder after he bolts vs paying 100M plus to try to get 2, maybe 3 years of the sort of production Kendrick is a lock for...   

 

I know many will argue that his "real" value is that of a future number 3 or 4 pitcher well, you can likely get that or better by simply keeping him and offering a QO next offseason.  Hate Howie for what you think he should have been vs what he is all you want, but the guy's been one of the most consistent and yes valuable players at his positions for an extended time now.  If you can't maximize the potential long term return then you may as well maximize the current value to your team.  I think Howie may have helped his case league wide by showing an increased effort to milk walks last year.  I'm sure there are teams that will dismiss it as a one year fluke, but there are likely teams that view it as a veteran player showing the usual signs of improvement in what's considered a veteran skill.  IMO you hold out for better than what was his perceived value in recent years. The costs, years and actual production warrant better than has been previously talked about -- particularly to a NL team.

 

Last thing..  the argument that some combination of Green and a defensively minded player could possibly give us a 2 WAR season is fine.   The flip side of course is you could probably get that from signing Brandon Morrow and still have HK's 4 WAR.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I'm concerned with going with a lot of defensive subtractions in favor of patching up the rotation. We already traded Conger, which I don't have a problem with, but this was't exactly an elite defensive team last year. I like Green but the dude has a stone glove and no arm, I'm not sure we should really consider him a viable option at this point.

[Guest]

I'm concerned with going with a lot of defensive subtractions in favor of patching up the rotation. We already traded Conger, which I don't have a problem with, but this was't exactly an elite defensive team last year. I like Green but the dude has a stone glove and no arm, I'm not sure we should really consider him a viable option at this point.

So am I. At best trading away defense to patch holes in the middle to back end of the rotation will buy the team more regular season wins against subpar teams like the Astros at the expense of wins in the postseason, where wins matter most.

Edited November 9, 2014 by ScottLux

[Brent Maguire]

Playing an advocate here, but shouldn't we differentiate where the value is coming from? Example, Angels had a great offense with Howie. Angels should have just as great of an offense with Grant Green (I know most don't but it but I do).

The real loss here would be in Howie's defense, but I feel that if the Angels got a young starter who slots between Richards and Shoe, the team would be slightly better off in 2015, but much better off long term.

 

We're talking about a big, if not monstrous, drop in defensive value. Green would most certainly be a bottom 3 worst defender at the position, while Howie has consistently been an above average-good defender. 

 

I think Green can be a league average hitter but I also don't foresee him hitting even as well as Howie. 

 

Like others have said, there's no logic in trading Howie unless the return is just absurd. 2015 looks like another big year for the Angels and knocking 2-3 wins off your total by trading Howie doesn't seem smart unless you're getting a legit #3 back in return. 

[Second Base]

We're talking about a big, if not monstrous, drop in defensive value. Green would most certainly be a bottom 3 worst defender at the position, while Howie has consistently been an above average-good defender. 

 

I think Green can be a league average hitter but I also don't foresee him hitting even as well as Howie. 

 

Like others have said, there's no logic in trading Howie unless the return is just absurd. 2015 looks like another big year for the Angels and knocking 2-3 wins off your total by trading Howie doesn't seem smart unless you're getting a legit #3 back in return. 

 

And there in a sense is my argument.  If you get a young #3 SP then go for it.  Anything less, don't bother because the draft pick compensation for the QO the Angels would offer after next season would be nice to have.