Could non-citizens decide the November election?

[Jay]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/24/could-non-citizens-decide-the-november-election/

 

How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.

 

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.

 

There are obvious limitations to our research, which one should take account of when interpreting the results. Although the CCES sample is large, the non-citizen portion of the sample is modest, with the attendant uncertainty associated with sampling error. We analyze only 828 self-reported non-citizens. Self-reports of citizen status might also be a source of error, although the appendix of our paper shows that the racial, geographic, and attitudinal characteristics of non-citizens (and non-citizen voters) are consistent with their self-reported status.

 

 

[arch stanton]

obvious limitations

[halobob]

They could yes.  Will they, my bet is no.

[floplag]

I agree it isnt likely, well in most areas or on the national level.. but locally they could i think.  Either way the very fact that they could, should be scary enough... and should not be allowed.

[Hollyw00d]

Maybe the "citizens" should get off their asses and vote and this probably wouldn't even matter

[mtangelsfan]

Estimated that 40% of registered voters will actually vote this election.  Pretty apathetic.

[Adam]

Guilty

[Tank]

Estimated that 40% of registered voters will actually vote this election.  Pretty apathetic.

 

that's more than i expected.

 

maybe a more interesting governor's race would have positively affected that.

[mtangelsfan]

Guilty

 

If you are libertarian why don't you vote for them?  That is what I do.  Unless I know a person with an R or D.

[Adam]

I have and probably still should. I'm very defeated and don't see the point. Wish I had stronger convictions. 

[mtangelsfan]

I just do absentee.  I'm automatically signed up for it so I get my ballot in the mail.  Then my wife or I drop it off at the courthouse whenever its convenient.  Easy peasy.

 

Oh, and I am totally defeated too, my voting libertarian on everything is basically an "f you" to the government.  At least they have to count it.

Edited November 3, 2014 by mtangelsfan

[BaseballMom]

I voted in this election mostly because of my school board.  Local elections affect us more than any other IMO.

[Hollyw00d]

Definitely, mom.

[Tank]

I have and probably still should. I'm very defeated and don't see the point. Wish I had stronger convictions. 

 

if you don't want to vote for any of the crappy candidates, that's fine. you should at least come out and vote on the propositions.

[Taylor]

if you don't want to vote for any of the crappy candidates, that's fine. you should at least come out and vote on the propositions write in Mike Trout and Ralston Schmidt for every position.

 

Agreed.

[Jay]

I just do absentee.  I'm automatically signed up for it so I get my ballot in the mail.  Then my wife or I drop it off at the courthouse whenever its convenient.  Easy peasy.

 

Oh, and I am totally defeated too, my voting libertarian on everything is basically an "f you" to the government.  At least they have to count it.

 

I vote libertarian on all the ballot measures.

[Adam]

if you don't want to vote for any of the crappy candidates, that's fine. you should at least come out and vote on the propositions.

 

meh. steal money from me for this. steal it for that. it is getting stolen one way or another. I don't really care what they do with it once they steal it. 

 

I don't think I support democracy at all anymore. 

[mtangelsfan]

Adam is a Communist!!!!!!

[Taylor]

On 11/3/2014 at 3:09 PM, mtangelsfan said:

 

If you are libertarian why don't you vote for them?  That is what I do.  Unless I know a person with an R or D.

 

On 11/3/2014 at 3:24 PM, Adam said:

I have and probably still should. I'm very defeated and don't see the point. Wish I had stronger convictions. 

 

Wow Adam

[Taylor]

5 minutes ago, cals said:

Hey you just reused that joke!

Logged in to the wrong account again, unless you're talking to yourself in the second person.

[UndertheHalo]

Love to see some of the early work of the Jeff Bezos Washington Post stewardship. 

[Adam]

4 hours ago, Taylor said:

 

 

Wow Adam

I’ve evolved. Every vote is an act of aggression against someone. Voting is evil