AL West realignment thoughts

[mp170.6]

I've been thinking about the realignment and what it means to have Houston in the AL West. Thanks to the Astros' ineptitude and the likelihood of them losing 100+ games, these are my predictions for 2013:

 

1. Whichever AL West opponent is most dominant against the Astros, and most dominant in interleague play against NL central teams wins the division.

 

2. Three AL West teams will finish with 90 or more wins for two reasons: Each AL West opponent plays the Astros 18 times.  Second, AL West teams play mediocre, if not crappy teams during interleague play (i.e. Cubs, Pirates, Brewers).

 

3. Both AL wildcards will go to AL West teams.  The AL Central and AL East look pretty weak with little competition this year. 

 

AL Central teams typically finish with ≤ 90 wins. 

 

The AL East is totally different with the Yankees in poor shape.  I think they stand to lose 80-85 games and Toronto and Baltimore will be somewhere around .500, which leaves Boston or Tampa Bay most likely to win the AL East.  I doubt the AL East race goes beyond 90-92 wins given the makeup of both teams. 

 

So if both AL Wildcards don't go to AL West teams, one of them goes to either Tampa Bay or Boston instead.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

What do you think, is this reasonable? 

 

 

[TXNick]

As a Ranger fan I am in favor of it. More games in my time zone.

[AZMike]

My prediction since before the start of the season is Oakland wins the division, Texas WC 1, Angels WC 2. Rangers win the wildcard game. 

 

but win totals will be close between all three one way another. 

[mp170.6]

I shared these thoughts with a friend who thinks Toronto stands a chance in the AL East, and could claim a wildcard spot.  I say no way.  R.A. Dickey's implosion has already begun. 

[nate]

The West isn't the first 5 team division with a total joke of a team.  I would be amazed if three teams win 90.  Too many games against each other.  In baseball, no game is a cupcake.  Even against the Astros.

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

Geographically, it would've made a lot more sense to move Arizona to the AL West instead of Houston.

 

I agree with most of what the OP said, but I think Baltimore and Toronto are the teams that are most likely win the AL East. The winner of that division will have 90+ wins.   

[mp170.6]

The West isn't the first 5 team division with a total joke of a team.  I would be amazed if three teams win 90.  Too many games against each other.  In baseball, no game is a cupcake.  Even against the Astros.

 

No other team in the AL is as bad as Houston though. 

[nate]

No other team in the AL is as bad as Houston though. 

 

My point being this has been the case before and there weren't three 90 game winning teams in one division.

[DW711]

I still think the Royals have a chance of getting a wildcard because the Twins rotation might be worse than the Astros.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

R.A. Dickey's implosion has already begun. 

 

Glad the Angels didn't bite. I had a feeling he was a one-shot wonder.

[mp170.6]

My point being this has been the case before and there weren't three 90 game winning teams in one division.

 

Not true. 

 

Three 90-game winners

2012 AL East

2011 AL East

 

Almost three 90-game winners

2009 NL West (third team had 88 wins)

2010 AL East (third team had 89 wins)

[mp170.6]

Glad the Angels didn't bite. I had a feeling he was a one-shot wonder.

 

I think he'll get traded back to the NL this year.

[stemyn]

As a Ranger fan I am in favor of it. More games in my time zone.

 

It is the same number of games in your time zone.  The number of games versus the west coast teams has not changed. 

[AZMike]

My point being this has been the case before and there weren't three 90 game winning teams in one division.

Last year in the Al west the win totals were 94, 93, 89 without any Astros games. None of those three teams are particularly worse on paper. Astrosshould be good for 4 wins compared to playing league average teams 18 times.

[nando714]

Oakland won't get 90 wins

Texas maybe

[HaloMagic]

It is the same number of games in your time zone. The number of games versus the west coast teams has not changed.

Wouldn't playing Houston an additional 12 times lessen the number of east coast teams the Rangers play?

[Brent Maguire]

I think the Angels win around 90 and the A's and Rangers are each a game or 2 behind. 

[RenoHalo]

Oakland won't get 90 wins

Texas maybe

You're right, they will get 97-101...The A's, as much as it sucks to say, are, by far, the best team in this division. maybe the best team in baseball. They will sweep us this week, we will be 2-7, and the amount of shit I will take from all the A's fans up here will be unbearable. Please, $178MM Halos, prove me wrong.

[Bashbrothers]

I think we are the best team in the division, but I think it's more likely the Angels sweep us than us sweeping the Angels.  Road and Reddick is hurt. 

[mp170.6]

I think the Angels win around 90 and the A's and Rangers are each a game or 2 behind. 

 

Why would the Angels/A's/Rangers' have fewer wins in 2013 when they now have the Astros to use as a punching bag? 

 

No offense, but that doesn't make sense...

[mrwicked]

$3 says we have the worst record against the astros in our division.

[Angel Oracle]

There is precidence for three 90 win teams: the 2002 AL West when three teams won at least 93 games and the other team (Tejas) won around 70 games.

 

The smart bettor though won't take wicked's wager, because we usually fare worse aginst stinky AL teams then any other AL contenders.    

[Angelsjunky]

You're right, they will get 97-101...The A's, as much as it sucks to say, are, by far, the best team in this division. maybe the best team in baseball. They will sweep us this week, we will be 2-7, and the amount of shit I will take from all the A's fans up here will be unbearable. Please, $178MM Halos, prove me wrong.

 

Have you looked at their lineup? It begs to different with your assertion that they are "by far the best team..."

 

As for the OP, good post. The AL East might actually be the most interesting division in baseball with no clearly dominant team, but no clearly bad teams. I do think it is too early to write DIckey off - I mean he's had two starts. Give the old guy a chance.

[baseballplayer]

I shared these thoughts with a friend who thinks Toronto stands a chance in the AL East, and could claim a wildcard spot.  I say no way.  R.A. Dickey's implosion has already begun. 

No kidding about Dickey...I was gonna say the same thing. It would be hard for both wc's to come out of the west but it just might happen. How great would that be!

[Second Base]

I've got the Angels finishing around 94 wins, the A's at 89 and the Rangers at 86.  I just don't think Texas will be that good this year, for lots of reasons.