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Scherzer, Lester or Shields.........


Ohtaniland

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Should our Angels consider ponying up the dough for what looks to be another large contract? 

 

 

1. RHP Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15, 220 1/3 innings), 30, Tigers: The 2013 Cy Young winner turned down a six-year $144 million offer from the Tigers in spring training and produced another stellar season in his walk year. The Tigers will almost assuredly offer him a $15.3 million qualifying offer before he dives into the free agent pool.

 

2. LHP Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46, 219 2/3), 30, A's: Lester could re-sign with the Red Sox, who traded him to the A's, but there is going to be a lot of other teams interested. Not only is Lester talented and durable – he topped 200 innings for the sixth time in the last seven years – teams won't have to worry about parting with a high draft pick because the A's can't make him a qualifying offer. Teams can only make free agents a qualifying offer if they've spent the entire season with them.

 

3. RHP James Shields (14-8, 3.21, 227), 32, Royals: Kansas City traded for Shields to help them reach the World Series. He's done that and now they have to figure out a way to keep him. It has been reported that the Royals could offer Shields a five-year deal worth over $80 million.

 

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I think they are going to make a run at one of these guys.  

 

Lester would be my choice.  He's probably going to get a Greinke type of deal 6/150.  

 

Say no to Scherzer - I could see him wanting 200mil and I just don't see his arm holding up.  

 

Shileds could come cheaper, but he's entering his 33yo season and has a ton of miles on his arm.  

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Lester has lots of mileage on his arm but he's battle proven, has really improved his all around arsenal and had the best control of his career in 2014(career low 5.4 BB%).

 

Scherzer is the best immediate short term value and should be a top 10 starting pitcher for the next 3-4 years. However, he's going to be uber expensive and will almost certainly provide little to no value the last years of his contract.

 

Shields is a weird case because he has a ton of mileage but his average fastball velocity this past year was the best of his career(92.4 mph). The red flag is his strikeout rate is trending downhill(lowest K% since 2009) and the fact that he'll be 33 on Opening Day next year. 

 

I think Lester is the best option out of the 3 but quite frankly, I don't want the Angels near these guys. We have enough bad contracts. Adding to the collection seems like a bad idea. 

 

I think this past year showed that you don't need to have a stacked rotation to be successful(See, the Orioles and Angels). 

 

Sign Brandon McCarthy. Go into the season with a Weaver/Richards/Shoemaker/McCarthy/Wilson rotation with Santiago as the swingman and Rasmus as your 7th starter. 

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don't sign any of the three. identify pitchers building toward a breakout, and try and acquire them in trade. if the team that already controls them rebukes you, then move on to other arms of the same type. pay for what you think is coming and not what has already gone by. if you miss, then you miss. at least you won't be punished greatly financially. if for some reason some amazing player comes along as a FA near 27 years old, then feel free to make a large commitment.

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