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Common sense


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Sometimes you get hot at the craps table. Just because it is a crapshoot doesn't mean every team will be near .500

 

What does the performance of David Freese and Shelly Duncan have to do with the performance of Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter?  Granted, the Cardinals make some solid decisions (let's be realistic, though... if they had more money, they would have signed Pujols).... but their playoff performance in 2006 and 2011 has little to do with their playoff performance in 2014.  

Or maybe they are just good at analyzing players who can put together solid at bats, work counts, and not swing at junk.

 

And the Angels, well, they cant do that.

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Or maybe they are just good at analyzing players who can put together solid at bats, work counts, and not swing at junk.

 

And the Angels, well, they cant do that.

I assume you are referring just to the playoffs because the Cards offense during the regular season was pretty bad and they were the worst base running team in the majors.  

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did you know that when apple first released the shuffle, people complained that it wasn't random cuz it would do things like play the same song two times in a row, or play several songs in order of an album. the thing they failed to realize is what 'random' really means. it doesn't mean that there will be an even distribution of results. it means that every result has equal chance of happening. apple later corrected their 'random' formula to no longer do this, thus effectively making a more random feeling, but less actually random, shuffle function.

if you think that a couple teams winning the playoffs a couple of times in a shortish period of time is proof that it is not random, you are making this same fundamental mistake about what random ACTUALLY IS.

 

*note, as all of you are accomplished logisists, i'm sure you will be able to note that this does NOT mean that the playoffs are random- just that this is not a valid argument for why they are not.

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did you know that when apple first released the shuffle, people complained that it wasn't random cuz it would do things like play the same song two times in a row, or play several songs in order of an album. the thing they failed to realize is what 'random' really means. it doesn't mean that there will be an even distribution of results. it means that every result has equal chance of happening. apple later corrected their 'random' formula to no longer do this, thus effectively making a more random feeling, but less actually random, shuffle function.

if you think that a couple teams winning the playoffs a couple of times in a shortish period of time is proof that it is not random, you are making this same fundamental mistake about what random ACTUALLY IS.

 

*note, as all of you are accomplished logisists, i'm sure you will be able to note that this does NOT mean that the playoffs are random- just that this is not a valid argument for why they are not.

The MLB playoffs are no more random then any other sport.  The NFL is probably the most random, considering its a simple one game playoff.  You could make the random argument for many of the Lakers titles.  A missed shot here or there, and the Lakers could be short 2 or 3 or even all 5 of their recent championships.  

 

The Red Sox have 3 world series titles in the last 10 years.  The Yankees won 4 in a span of about 6 years during the late 90's.  The Cardinals have 2 in a span of 5 years.  The Giants have 2 out of the last 4, and potentially a 3rd coming soon.  Mike Scioscia led teams have been in the playoffs several times in the last 10 years, and yet every year the losses result from similar mistakes.  Baserunning mistakes running into outs, flailing at terrible pitches, not being patient and having a terrible approach at the plate, being terrible with RISP, and an assortment of other things such as mismanaged bullpens and a whole bunch of late inning home runs.  

 

So in conclusion, no our postseason losses are not random.  No, teams that win it consistently are not lucky.  There isnt a magic formula to it, but you can certainly improve your chances by getting guys that dont give away at bats on a regular basis by getting themselves out.  There is a huge difference between the regular season and the postseason.  We can beat up on Astros and Rangers pitchers all day, no problem.  But when it comes down to facing a pitcher who's not going to hold anything back, against a team and a manager who gameplans for every single hitter, swinging at crap wont work.  

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The MLB playoffs are no more random then any other sport.  The NFL is probably the most random, considering its a simple one game playoff.  You could make the random argument for many of the Lakers titles.  A missed shot here or there, and the Lakers could be short 2 or 3 or even all 5 of their recent championships.  

 

The Red Sox have 3 world series titles in the last 10 years.  The Yankees won 4 in a span of about 6 years during the late 90's.  The Cardinals have 2 in a span of 5 years.  The Giants have 2 out of the last 4, and potentially a 3rd coming soon.  Mike Scioscia led teams have been in the playoffs several times in the last 10 years, and yet every year the losses result from similar mistakes.  Baserunning mistakes running into outs, flailing at terrible pitches, not being patient and having a terrible approach at the plate, being terrible with RISP, and an assortment of other things such as mismanaged bullpens and a whole bunch of late inning home runs.  

 

So in conclusion, no our postseason losses are not random.  No, teams that win it consistently are not lucky.  There isnt a magic formula to it, but you can certainly improve your chances by getting guys that dont give away at bats on a regular basis by getting themselves out.  There is a huge difference between the regular season and the postseason.  We can beat up on Astros and Rangers pitchers all day, no problem.  But when it comes down to facing a pitcher who's not going to hold anything back, against a team and a manager who gameplans for every single hitter, swinging at crap wont work.  

One thing that I'd consider a pattern, and not random, is the fact that Angels baseball teams under Scioscia have consistently started out slowly after any break and consistently take a long time to shake off rust and play to thier potential. Scioscia-managed teams always have poor records in April and the first couple weeks after any All Star Break. They also tend to get eliminated in the playoffs in the first round, often by teams that they beat handily during the regular season.

 

Things like putting veteran players into the lineup and hoping that the regain confidence or snap out of slumps can work if you can afford length losing streaks in order to figure things out. Problem is in the playoffs you can't mess around with things like starting Josh Hamilton after not playing for a month in a best of 5 series. Can't afford to give away any games while players get their stuff together.

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