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[Fletcher: Where do the Angels go from here?] But it's not our money!


Angelsjunky

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A quote from this article:

 

Since the Angels signed Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson and Josh Hamilton in the winters of 2011 and 2012, the club has done its shopping in the bargain bin. Last winter the most they gave any free agent was $15.5 million for Joe Smith.

 

But, but, but....its not our money! Why would spend lots of money prohibit us from spending more money? I don't get it!!!

 

I'm being sarcastic, of course. I think Fletcher's quote there expresses why the "its not our money" meme is complete and utter foolishness. Yeah, its not our money but its someone else's money, and that someone has a limit to how much he wants to spend - and thus past expenditures limit future ones, as we've seen over the last year or two.

 

The Pujols, Hamilton, and now Wilson contracts are crippling to this ball-club, at least if they all continue to under-perform. With those three players the Angels are playing a lot of money - next year it will be $68 million for the three of them.

 

Now of course Arte could prove me wrong by blowing past the luxury threshold and signing one of Lester, Scherzer, or Shields, and throwing in a Sandoval or Headley, or even Russell Martin. But I'd be rather surprised. As Fletcher posits, I think it is more likely that they get a back-end rotation insurance starter, with the hopes that Richards is healthy and Wilson rebounds.

 

 

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bowden was saying on mlb radio yesterday that the angels need to sign one of the big free agent starters. wrong.

they are solid with what they have. the last thing the angels need to do is sign more old guys to bloated contracts.

We definitely need more starters. Dipoto's gonna have to pull some more rabbits from his hat.

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Arte needs to stop spending big money on free agents!

Why did Arte stop spending big money on free agents?

 

I could see how that's what you think I'm saying, but not quite. I don't mind him spending big money on free agents, but the key is to do it intelligently. The last three mega-contracts, four if you count Wells (I know he wasn't a free agent, but the Angels did take on a mega-contract of four years), have ranged from total busts to mediocre at best. Wells was godawful, Hamilton has been a bust, Pujols has been decent at times but relative to expectation and the contract he's a bust. Wilson was pretty good his first two years, but not as good as he was in Texas and overall his contract has been mediocre.

 

We can look at the contracts that "passed us by." Teixeira was good for his first year but has been mediocre since, so I think we dodged a bullet. Crawford is another dodged bullet. Beltre and Greinke have been great.

 

So my question is: Why haven't ANY of the Angels mega-contracts worked out? What is not working in the Angels scouting department that they can't assess these players accurately?

 

The Hamilton contract would have been OK if he continued at his 2012 level. The Angels presumably let go of Torii Hunter, who played better for 2/$26M in Detroit. If they had signed Torii instead, they'd be in a position this year where they could go after needed pitching (and presumably wouldn't have trade Grichuk and Bourjos).

 

Again, the point is: bad mega-contracts cripple the team, preventing them from signing good mega-contracts and good moderate contracts.

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If you look around, I think the big free agent contracts (not extensions) fail much more than succeed, for all teams.

It's common sense. You don't get to be a free agent until you have played 6 years, so by definition you will be 29 or 30 when they start. Throughout most of history (minus that mysterious period from about 1995-2005) players decline when they hit 33 or so.

Whoever signs Max Scherzer better win in the first couple years they have him, because in a few years he'll be CC Sabathia.

Also, as more teams have realized this nowadays, more guys are signing extensions earlier, which means fewer are even hitting free agency. That makes their prices higher because of supply and demand. And the ones that do get though because their teams DIDN'T sign them to an extension, so there are likely some warts to begin with.

The lack of guys on the market also trickles down to Scott Feldman getting $33M.

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We definitely need more starters. Dipoto's gonna have to pull some more rabbits from his hat.

jmo, but if skaggs and richards rehab and come back angels will have 4 solid starters. sciosia adapted well without those two. just don't want to turn the team into a retirement home for washed up old guys.

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jmo, but if skaggs and richards rehab and come back angels will have 4 solid starters. sciosia adapted well without those two. just don't want to turn the team into a retirement home for washed up old guys.

The Angels have already told Skaggs that even if he's ahead of schedule, he's not pitching in 2015. They're going to be cautious with him. They could change their mind, but I doubt it.

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If you look around, I think the big free agent contracts (not extensions) fail much more than succeed, for all teams.

It's common sense. You don't get to be a free agent until you have played 6 years, so by definition you will be 29 or 30 when they start. Throughout most of history (minus that mysterious period from about 1995-2005) players decline when they hit 33 or so.

Whoever signs Max Scherzer better win in the first couple years they have him, because in a few years he'll be CC Sabathia.

Also, as more teams have realized this nowadays, more guys are signing extensions earlier, which means fewer are even hitting free agency. That makes their prices higher because of supply and demand. And the ones that do get though because their teams DIDN'T sign them to an extension, so there are likely some warts to begin with.

The lack of guys on the market also trickles down to Scott Feldman getting $33M.

The post steroid era is here. Teams are paying inflated contracts today because of the the artificially inflated performances of yesterday. The players today should be very grateful to Bonds, Sosa, Big Mac and many many others for helping MLB market and reach all time records in profits and popularity.

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I had no problem with the Wilson signing.  Five years for a quality lefty starter who had dominated in a hitters park like Arlington seemed like a reasonable risk albeit a slight overpay.  Hamilton and Pujols made no sense which made it seem it more Arte than Dipoto.  Ten years for a player in his early 30's (supposedly) just made zero sense, even for a HOF player like Albert.  I'm sure the belief was that would transition from 1B to fulltime DH later in his career, hopefully following a similar trajectory of Edgar Martinez, but there was no possible way he would live up to his contract in years 7-10.  I don't think Arte and company could have predicted the amount of physical issues Pujols has endured in his time with the Angels but the fact remains we have 7 more years of declining performance incoming.  Hamilton made even less sense, even at 5 years.  The guy was a former addict who needed a life coach to keep him straight, missed chunks of seasons due to injury and put up the majority of his best numbers in Arlington.  All the signs were there which, again, makes me think this was a heart (Arte) signing as opposed to a head (Dipoto) signing.  You'd have to hope that after the potential disasters in Pujols and Hamilton and the utter wrecks that were to become of Crawford and Wells, Arte and co are getting smarter by developing their talent and letting other teams pay for years that have already passed. 

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I actually have some concerns about the bullpen too. Salas, Morin and Jepsen were all horrible the last month or two of the season, and none have track records suggesting their poor performance toward the end was an abberation.

 

 

I think that was because they were exhausted.  Those guys were used a ton this season and they burnt out by the end.  They'll be fine next year.

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I honestly think Arte is going to have to go over the luxury tax if he is going to want to compete and get a WS in 2015.  This team will need one decent starter AND an extra starting arm.  Skaggs is out next season and lets face facts, Wilson may be done as a good pitcher.

 

On top of that, the Angels will need some bullpen arms because they are losing some key pieces to that bullpen.

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I honestly don't blame Arte if he's done spending. At the time I was a fan of all the moves he made. It's easy to say now they all suck but I give Arte credit for going all in.

Hamilton and Wilson are completely done. Pujols flirted with signs of life this season but he's on his last legs.

The only guy I'd go all in on is Cueto and he's got his own injury issues and has a club option this season for 10 million. So we'd have to trade with Cincy and we don't have the pieces. I DO NOT want to see Scherzer, Shields or Lester in a Angels uni next season. That would again just add to the mess and give us a 2 season window to win and set us up for misery after.

Bring in a 2nd tier SP and see what Russell Martin is asking for. JD is in a tough spot this offseason, you got core guys hurting your club that are unmovable and little money to spend with holes to fill.

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