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For the first time in a long time, there might be reason to be concerned about Weaver


jshep

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Agree. His problem last night wasn't velocity, it was his inability to throw a strike.

 

I'd argue both. Control varies from start to start though, velocity is more consistent. If he was going to remain a pitcher with an 84MPH fastball and no control, then I'd really be shit-scared. But the control will be fine.

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I'd argue both. Control varies from start to start though, velocity is more consistent. If he was going to remain a pitcher with an 84MPH fastball and no control, then I'd really be shit-scared. But the control will be fine.

 

Right, which is why control is more important to Weaver's success and why he didn't look sharp last night.

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Please check out my Inside Edge piece titled "Survival of the Fittest: Evolution of an Ace" for my full opinion. One thing to remember, Weaver is relying more on the sinker & cutter these days to create more movement. Those are slower pitches by nature and will produce slower FB velocity. Weaver's problem last night was fastball command. What turned him into an Ace was limiting free passes and keeping the ball in the yard. That is why he is bad in Texas, the ball jumps out of that park. He got killed by walking hitters last night. Velocity also increases in May and June, so let's wait and see.

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Right, which is why control is more important to Weaver's success and why he didn't look sharp last night.

 

Control is more important to the success of any pitcher, so you're not really saying anything. But just because it's more important, it doesn't mean you can lose 5MPH off your fastball in less than two years without it influencing your ability.

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Weaver's issue in his first two starts was his command, not his FB velocity. Had he his usually command so far this season, we would probably not be discussing this.

 

I read an article this offseason where he had some tissue removed from his shoulder and is returning to an old delivery. Perhaps, this has something to do with the loss of velocity and control issues. 

 

I'm not worried, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out throughout the season.

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edit: not surgery.

 

This is the article:

 

"Weaver, who threw three innings in the Angels' 12-6 victory over Team Italy on Wednesday, said that the team's training staff has helped work his pitching shoulder back into shape. Weaver is back to throwing at three-quarters -- his natural arm slot -- after coming over the top for two years.

"The last couple years, I've had some tightness in my shoulder," the right-hander said. "The training staff has done a great job in loosening that stuff up. I haven't had this much range of motion in my shoulder in a while. It feels good. It's like almost having to throw from a new arm slot. Sometimes I want to throw like I used to throw, and now it's freed up in there. ... It's nice to feel this good early on. That's for sure.""

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130306&content_id=42367958&notebook_id=42376062&vkey=notebook_ana&c_id=ana

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Same thing as Zito and Lincecum.  I am not sure it's in that territory yet, but it's definitely not something to ignore.

 

Yeah, but Zito and Lincecum rely more on velocity than Weaver does. Linecum had awesome FB velocity, but once it slowed down it became a very hittable pitch. Zito's best pitch is his curveball, but without that velocity on his fastball, batters can just sit on the fastball and crush it. Weaver is more of a deception/control type of pitcher, so he can get away with throwing a slowball.

 

One interesting thing about Weaver is that, like Matt Cain, although he is a flyball pitcher he doesn't give up a lot of HRs. I think Cameron mentions it in the article and that's one reason he's been so effective. I'll have to re-read the article, but it would be interesting to see if a decline in velocity correlates to giving up more HRs.

 

edit: it seems it did in Weaver's case: "Over his final 15 starts, he allowed 15 home runs, and during that stretch, his fastball went from 88 mph down to 86 mph. Continuing the trend out to last night, he’s now lost three miles-per-hour off his fastball over his last 17 outings, and he’s allowed 1.49 HR/9 over 102 innings during that span.From his MLB debut until July 14th, 2012, he had a career HR/9 of 0.92. His HR rate in his last 17 starts is 61% higher than his career HR rate up to that point."

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