Cespedes, Lester, Beane, Statheads versus players

[floplag]

This is somewhat in response to another thread, but as it refers to many threads weve had here is decided to be a tard and start a new one so... yeah

So im reading an article i found interesting regarding the whole Cespedes / Lester trade in which reporters were asking Beane and some of the players about the aftermath of the trade.  You can read it here:  http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/A-s-GM-Beane-stands-by-trade-for-Lester-5795508.php
 

Basically , what i found so interesting is that you have Beane saying the loss of Cespedes had nothing to do with the collapse etc... basically what you would expect him to say and what most of the SABR clones are saying... not going into that again here just noting the response.

What i found interesting though was the player reactions which were totally different.  In effect saying the opposite and all the things that those of us who don't live in the box scores have said.  Basically throwing Beane under the bus in a sense.

 

So it comes down to whether you wanna believe the front office guru, or the players in the clubhouse.  Personally i think a GM talking about the chemistry of a clubhouse he isnt in is kinda laughable.  The players know the score.

 

We all know hindsight is 20/20, but this tapdance seems disingenuous and to me i lose respect.
 

 

 

 

[stormngt]

Relying on stats has a lot of benefit.  However, for some stat geeks they rely on it exclusively.  

 

Stats can never tell the whole story.

 

The fact is they were the best team in baseball when they traded Cespedes.  The trade would only be of value if they won big in the playoffs. They didn't!

 

So fact:  They trade was  a bust.

 

Would have the A's won the WS with Cespedes.  Maybe, maybe not.

Would they have won the AL West:  Maybe, maybe not

 

What is definite:  They didn't win it without him.

[Torridd]

This is somewhat in response to another thread, but as it refers to many threads weve had here is decided to be a tard and start a new one so... yeah

So im reading an article i found interesting regarding the whole Cespedes / Lester trade in which reporters were asking Beane and some of the players about the aftermath of the trade.  You can read it here:  http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/A-s-GM-Beane-stands-by-trade-for-Lester-5795508.php

 

Basically , what i found so interesting is that you have Beane saying the loss of Cespedes had nothing to do with the collapse etc... basically what you would expect him to say and what most of the SABR clones are saying... not going into that again here just noting the response.

What i found interesting though was the player reactions which were totally different.  In effect saying the opposite and all the things that those of us who don't live in the box scores have said.  Basically throwing Beane under the bus in a sense.

 

So it comes down to whether you wanna believe the front office guru, or the players in the clubhouse.  Personally i think a GM talking about the chemistry of a clubhouse he isnt in is kinda laughable.  The players know the score.

 

We all know hindsight is 20/20, but this tapdance seems disingenuous and to me i lose respect.

 

Yeah, I read that. He's full of it.

[Hollyw00d]

I guess yeonis cespedes is the most valuable player in the history of everything, ever.

[Hollyw00d]

General Patton gets pissed off and jealous whenever he thinks about Yoenis Cespedes' ability to inspire and lead bearded men.

[arch stanton]

I agree with Beane that Chavez was due to regress but I thought that between Poneranz, Millone, and Straly they could manage. What really ended up killing them was lack of production at multiple positions. You can't play all 4 catchers everyday.  Gomes had 1 xbh in 75 PA. Lowrie hit for no power and Punto, Sogard, and Callaspo were atrocious. If they weren't going to get any production from the MI they could at least get decent glove work.

 

He can say what he wants but he broke up a team that was dominating the league. At what point do the remaining players wonder if they aren't just trade fodder for Beane to dump on a whim?

[Blarg]

“I think production ultimately creates chemistry.” ~ Billy Beane

[Hollyw00d]

No!  Wait,  I figured it out.  When cespedes was traded, he stole all of the other Oakland A's talent like Space Jam.

[Blarg]

“It’s the reality,” Lowry said. “When you take a few guys out of the clubhouse and add a handful of new guys, as much as people don’t think it’s a big deal and we’re all professionals out here playing a game, there’s something to chemistry and having an identity as a team and an offense.”

[Adam]

Cespedes gave the best post game handies. You can't expect guys to maintain focus when they're unfulfilled and/or backed up. 

[Hollyw00d]

BS excuses for shitty play.

 

 

That's my response, if I'm beane.

Edited October 2, 2014 by Hollyw00d

[shellback]

stats are like people- if you torture them long enough, the'll say anything

[Angelsjunky]

Floplag, the problem is more that there are two entrenched camps who can only see one side of a larger whole, the "stathead clones" that you bash in your post, but then people like you, "those of us who don't live in the box scores," who are equally (if not moreso) one-sided and blind.

 

In other words, by bashing one side of the picture all you really do is declare your allegiance and the fact that you're unwilling or unable to take a larger view. The reality is far more complex and a more nuanced view would include statistical analysis AND an understanding of clubhouse dynamics, team chemistry, player psychology etc.

 

Or to put it another way, it isn't head OR heart but BOTH.

[mulwin444]

“I think production ultimately creates chemistry.” ~ Billy Beane

Yeah, that quote stuck out to me as well.  Players are widgets to Beane or, perhaps better put, "Beane's".  While he's Beane-counting, players actually play the game.  The loss of Cespedes actually impacted the morale of the team and shook their chemistry, something which cannot be quantified in a ready-made formula.  I am a big fan of advanced stats and I think they can give a decent chance of predicting future events but I don't think you can be tone-deaf to the clubhouse either, and maybe that is Beane's achilles heal in regards to his perceived genius.  When the trade happened to Lester, there are things in Beane's mind that "should" have happened but they didn't and that's got to shake your confidence a bit. 

[GalericX]

I am sorry but i do not understand the love affair all of you have with the man.  Yeah he builds cheap teams... that do ... nothing. Its a constant cycle, Its been happening for years, they go no where.  When will the love affair of Billy Beane end?

[red321]

Yeah, if I was those players I'd try and blame someone else for the collapse as well

[Angelsjunky]

“It’s the reality,” Lowry said. “When you take a few guys out of the clubhouse and add a handful of new guys, as much as people don’t think it’s a big deal and we’re all professionals out here playing a game, there’s something to chemistry and having an identity as a team and an offense.”

 

Good quote, and I agree. But again, it isn't either/or. And let us not forget that correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. I think the trade had something to do with the Athletics' collapse, but that there were other factors.

 

If you look at Cespedes numbers, his reputation far exceeds his actual performance. Consider that, in 2014 he was: 58th in fWAR and 72nd in wRC+ among all major leaguers. Or, if you want more conventional stats, he was 93rd in BA, 126th in OBP, and 45th in SLG - all among 146 qualifiers.

 

Now to be fair to Cespedes, he's a solid defender and baserunner. His overall fWAR, 3.4, is tied with Kole Calhoun, albeit in 25 more games. So he's certainly a good to very good player but isn't the kind of star that many seem to believe him to be, at least in 2013-14.

 

As for Lester: 8th in fWAR, 6th in ERA, 8th in strikeouts, etc.

 

In other words, Jon Lester was easily one of the 10 or so best starting pitchers in baseball this year, and Cespedes was maybe top 50. It is hard to fault Beane for making the trade.

Edited October 2, 2014 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

I am sorry but i do not understand the love affair all of you have with the man.  Yeah he builds cheap teams... that do ... nothing. Its a constant cycle, Its been happening for years, they go no where.  When will the love affair of Billy Beane end?

 

Who has a "love affair" with him? I've been one of his staunchest advocates on this forum, although that's mainly to balance out the ridiculous hatred. I think Beane is a very good GM, probably one of the best in the game. And the record simply doesn't agree with you - no, he hasn't won a World Series, but in his 17 years as GM, he's made it to the postseason 8 times, with winning records 11 times. That's pretty damn good for a team with a pretty low payroll. He can only do so much, and what he does do is give his team a fighting chance year in and year out.

[Chimi]

Cespedes had 67 RBI while with the A's. That is still good for third best on the team even though he hasn't been on the team in 2 months. I think at the time of the trade he was second behind Donaldson. What did they think would happen when they removed their second best run producer from the lineup?

[Blarg]

Good quote, and I agree. But again, it isn't either/or. And let us not forget that correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. I think the trade had something to do with the Athletics' collapse, but that there were other factors.

 

If you look at Cespedes numbers, his reputation far exceeds his actual performance. Consider that, in 2014 he was: 58th in fWAR and 72nd in wRC+ among all major leaguers. Or, if you want more conventional stats, he was 93rd in BA, 126th in OBP, and 45th in SLG - all among 146 qualifiers.

 

Now to be fair to Cespedes, he's a solid defender and baserunner. His overall fWAR, 3.4, is tied with Kole Calhoun, albeit in 25 more games. So he's certainly a good to very good player but isn't the kind of star that many seem to believe him to be, at least in 2013-14.

 

As for Lester: 8th in fWAR, 6th in ERA, 8th in strikeouts, etc.

 

In other words, Jon Lester was easily one of the 10 or so best starting pitchers in baseball this year, and Cespedes was maybe top 50. It is hard to fault Beane for making the trade.

 

Beane's quote on chemistry just means he doesn't understand it at all. It's not about fWAR, or who is the better player according to metrics. Lester impacted one out of every 5 games. Beane removed the other four days of productivity that players say they missed and couldn't seem to find the right combination to fill the gap in the field, at the plate and in the clubhouse. The wins Lester brought they lost in the other four days of the schedule.

 

Here is the interesting thing about chemistry, you can add Hydrochloric acid to water or water to Hydrochloric acid. You would think there would be no difference but which you apply to the other causes a different reaction. That is the power of chemistry, it is there waiting to do what you mix together and if you do it wrong you get burned.

 

Beane failed chemistry.

Edited October 2, 2014 by Eric Notti

[floplag]

I guess yeonis cespedes is the most valuable player in the history of everything, ever.

 

lol... well this accelerated quickly

pretty sure noone said that,  only that stathead ostrich syndrome about Cespedes isn't realistic if you've ever actually played the game outside strat-o-matic

[arch stanton]

Good quote, and I agree. But again, it isn't either/or. And let us not forget that correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. I think the trade had something to do with the Athletics' collapse, but that there were other factors.

 

If you look at Cespedes numbers, his reputation far exceeds his actual performance. Consider that, in 2014 he was: 58th in fWAR and 72nd in wRC+ among all major leaguers. Or, if you want more conventional stats, he was 93rd in BA, 126th in OBP, and 45th in SLG - all among 146 qualifiers.

 

Now to be fair to Cespedes, he's a solid defender and baserunner. His overall fWAR, 3.4, is tied with Kole Calhoun, albeit in 25 more games. So he's certainly a good to very good player but isn't the kind of star that many seem to believe him to be, at least in 2013-14.

 

As for Lester: 8th in fWAR, 6th in ERA, 8th in strikeouts, etc.

 

In other words, Jon Lester was easily one of the 10 or so best starting pitchers in baseball this year, and Cespedes was maybe top 50. It is hard to fault Beane for making the trade.

But this wasn't a matter of Lester's production replacing Cespedes'. The LFers after Cspedes left did not do enough to offset his loss and while Lester was certainly better than his replacements I don't think the difference justified the cost. What they really needed was competent MI play both offensively and defensively.

[floplag]

BS excuses for shitty play.

 

 

That's my response, if I'm beane.

 

im sure that endears him to his club even moreso... isnt it obvious they arent buying into it at this point... really?    These guys all know that as they improve its an audition for other clubs... that cant make anyone happy

[floplag]

Floplag, the problem is more that there are two entrenched camps who can only see one side of a larger whole, the "stathead clones" that you bash in your post, but then people like you, "those of us who don't live in the box scores," who are equally (if not moreso) one-sided and blind.

 

In other words, by bashing one side of the picture all you really do is declare your allegiance and the fact that you're unwilling or unable to take a larger view. The reality is far more complex and a more nuanced view would include statistical analysis AND an understanding of clubhouse dynamics, team chemistry, player psychology etc.

 

Or to put it another way, it isn't head OR heart but BOTH.

 

Isnt that exactly what the Hades ive been saying?

I've never bashed stats, only those who hold them as gospel above and in exclusion to everything else... stats have a more than valid place in any analysis.. but something  cannot and never will be explainable by stats.  

[Hollyw00d]

im sure that endears him to his club even moreso... isnt it obvious they arent buying into it at this point... really? These guys all know that as they improve its an audition for other clubs... that cant make anyone happy

why would they care? Do you think its these guys lifelong dream to spend their whole career playing for the A's? Maybe a couple but I really doubt it. They just want to play ball, get paid, and maybe win some games.

you act like they're little leaguers. These are grown men, sometimes.