Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

IGNORED

In other statistically disappointing news...


Angelsjunky

Recommended Posts

Trout's final fWAR for the year is 7.8, rWAR is 7.9 - so he didn't even make it to 8.

 

What a loser.

 

Seriously though, an almost 3 fWAR drop--from 10.5 in 2013 to 7.8 in 2014--is worth noting. According to the components of fWAR, he's declined in every facet of the game from last year: baserunning, hitting, and fielding. Both baserunning and fielding represent three year trends.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think he's trying to be more of a power hitter. It shows in both the good (HR, RBI's) and bad (Strikeouts, strikeouts, ****ing strikeouts).

That's probably accurate. I think he changed his approach coming into the season wanting to be a true HR hitter. There's plenty of evidence that suggests this. Perhaps he was miffed from not winning MVP in 2012-2013.

Can't really complain with the results... though I still way prefer the previous version of Trout.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to rWAR, his oWAR (8.7) was a tenth higher than his oWAR in 2012 (8.6) when he scored 129 runs and swiped 49 bags.

 

The biggest hit to his WAR is clearly his defense.  He's just allowing too many runners to score compared to everyone else during certain RBI situations, or more specifically with runners on 2B during a single, and a runner on 3B during a flyout with less than 2 outs.  Ironically, he seems to be very good at holding runners from taking extra bases when a single or double is hit with runners at 1B, which likely has more to do with his range than his arm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Defensive metrics are fickle. And flawed. And you're talking about a one-year sample. A one-year trend doesn't mean much, anyway. Do you really believe Trout is a terrible defensive CF, though? Maybe I'm biased and my eyes are deceiving me... but from watching Trout play I have not seen anything that would make me think he's awful defensively. Otherwise, the rest of the center fielders in the league must be amazing defensively if Trout is nearly 10 runs below the average defensive CF.

I also don't think it's entirely Trout's fault that he isn't running more and using his speed to his advantage. Take Pujols out of the 3-spot and I bet you would see a different Trout on the bases. Trout isn't even trying, for whatever reason. I think that has a lot to do with Pujols.

Offensively, he wasn't as good as last year.. but when you're on top of the wRC+ leaderboard it's hard to complain too much. I still prefer the previous version of Trout, though.

Edited by Angels
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What is the overall league WAR change over the last two years? There certainly weren't any players over the .975 OPS mark this season. Last season there were three including Trout. This season the top home run guy was Nelson Cruz at 40, last season Cabrera had 44 and Davis 53. In 2012 there were four players over 40 home runs. It seems offense had dried up a little this year with no real amazing standout seasons for anyone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In other words, league WAR doesn't change. League BA, OBP, SLG and all that changes year to year, but WAR--and other contextual stats like OPS+--remain stable. In OPS+, for instance, 100 is league average no matter what the year's OPS. Some years it could be .750, some .650. WAR works the same way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eric, WAR is supposed to be the same, year in and year out - it is always relative to a "replacement level player," which fluctuates by year. Pretty much all advanced statics factor in the run scoring context.

I get that so what I am wondering is there a league wide drop in elite players as adjusted. Trout did not statically do better than previous seasons but was anyone else really narrowing the gap? It seemed like he wasn't really challenged in what seemed like a down year.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I get that so what I am wondering is there a league wide drop in elite players as adjusted. Trout did not statically do better than previous seasons but was anyone else really narrowing the gap? It seemed like he wasn't really challenged in what seemed like a down year.

 

I think elite players fluctuate over time. But let's look at the top five in fWAR for the last fifteen years, then every five years going back a few decades:

 

2014: 7.8, 6.8, 6.6, 6.6, 6.6

2013: 10.5, 8.2, 7.7, 7.6, 7.5

2012: 10.1, 7.7, 7.7, 7.5, 7.4

2011: 9.1, 8.4, 7.7, 7.7, 7.3

2010: 8.4, 7.6, 7.4, 7.0, 6.8

2009: 8.7, 8.5, 7.9, 7.7, 7.5

2008: 8.6, 7.9, 7.6, 7.2, 7.2

2007: 9.6, 8.4, 8.0, 7.9, 7.7

2006: 8.2, 7.8, 7.6, 7.0, 6.4

2005: 8.8, 7.9, 7.7, 7.0, 6.8

2004: 11.6, 9.7, 8.9, 8.6, 8.1

2003: 10.1, 9.6, 9.2, 7.5, 7.3

2002: 12.4, 9.8, 7.2, 6.9, 6.8

2001: 12.5, 9.9, 9.2, 8.9, 7.8

2000: 9.5, 8.7, 8.3, 8.2, 7.7

 

1995: 8.2, 7.7, 7.2, 7.0, 6.6

1990: 10.2, 9.9, 9.0, 6.5, 6.5

1985: 9.7, 8.8, 8.3, 7.8, 7.2

1980: 9.1, 9.0, 7.8, 7.0, 6.9

1975: 11.0, 7.9, 7.3, 7.1, 7.1

1970: 8.9, 8.2, 7.9, 6.8, 6.8

 

Well your hunch is certainly right, that the top five players are quite reduced from previous years.  I wonder why that is? I mean, they're the lowest in at least fifteen years - and it looks like from the sampling of every five years going back to 1970, they're the lowest of the modern DH era.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trout could regress into a Grady Sizemore type.

As the long as the team is good I really don't care

 

I somewhat agree with the second sentence, although I do enjoy individual accomplishments as well.

 

Anyhow, the Sizemore comp is interesting. I remember Baseball Prospectus comparing him to a Sizemore that would hit .300. Of course Sizemore was pretty great in his prime - his best season, 2006, as the same fWAR as Trout this year, at 7.8. I don't think Sizemore has Trout's ability to adjust, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...