Analyzing the A's downfall

[Hollyw00d]

Agreed. But if they get into the Wild Card game and Lester pitches like he did tonight then no one will remember the epic collapse.

he was also facing the Phillies, a truly putrid lineup

[HaloMagic]

It really hasn't mattered who he's faced this season.

[HaloMagic]

Cespedes wasn't their #4 hitter.

[Blarg]

He batted primarily 5th (40 games) and 3rd (37 games) in the order for the A's with 22 games at 4th this season.

Edited September 20, 2014 by Eric Notti

[Blarg]

 getting rid of Aybar and Howie  wouldn't make a difference either. 

 

After all, they're like 7th and 9th in OPS in our lineup

 

The Angels are 31-15 when Aybar bats 5th (.674)

 

The Angels are 33-24 when Kendrick bats 5th (.579)

 

The Angels are 16-9 when Freese bats 5th (.640)

 

Trade Kendrick!

Edited September 20, 2014 by Eric Notti

[Hollyw00d]

IMO team records with a single player in (or out) of a lineup is about as relevant as a pitcher's win loss record. maybe less.

I'll never be convinced a single player in a game like baseball is capable of turning a losing team into a playoff contender or vice versa. unless he's mike trout, and maybe even then its still not THAT significant.

remember our clubhouse leader and intangible extraordinaire raul Ibanez? Yeah the angels played better without him.

[Angel Oracle]

Do you remember winning 8 of the next 12 after he went down? Or the for in a row we lost when he returned?

The big issues were 1) the total lack of starting pitching after Langston and Finley (although the re-acquired Abbott had a couple of big starts in September), and 2) the youth in the lineup catching up to them by September.

[Angel Oracle]

The A's have the schedule advantage

But if Lester pitches the WC game, that leaves them with Samardzija in ALDS game 1 and then a slumping Kazmir and slumping Gray in game 2 AND game 4.

[disarcina]

no doubt in my mind that A's downfall can be traced to the Cespedes deal.

 

He was the spark-plug for their offense and this is a dynamic that you really can't measure with stats.

 

Lester has pitched well for the A's and has done what they asked and Smardjzia (I can't ever spell his name right or get even close, the Notre Dame TE guy) has pitched well for them and will be back -- Hammel has not done that well for the A's........but he's an arm for their rotation and I think he's signed through next year......so A's will be fine........

 

but this year's collapse?  Trace to a very un-Billy Beane like deal -- the Cespedes (and a real top prospect) for rental Lester et. al........terrible move -- and I posted it at the time it was made -- many folks here did although there was a debate but most here agreed it was a really bad deal for the A's and that's been proven to be the case.

 

I still think there's going to be some bad news for Cespedes this off-season and then, suddenly, the deal will make a little more sense. Maybe.

[Jeff Fletcher]

It was the Cespedes trade. I know stat geeks will never, never accept this, but sometimes a player brings so-called intangibles to a club. Oakland stunk 4 out of 5 years before, out of nowhere, they made themselves relevant by out-bidding the large market teams for the guy. Suddenly, they become one of the best teams in baseball for 2 2/3 seasons.

If wins and losses are the only things that matter in sports, lets check the scoreboard.

A's win-loss record with Cespedes in the starting lineup

2012 82-46

2013 83-50

2014 63-35

228-131 .635 winning pct.

A's win-loss record without Cespedes in the starting lineup

2012 12-22

2013 13-16

2014 21-34

46-72 .390 winning pct.

They're not even the same team. I don't know why they are better with him than without him. They just are. I was thrilled when they traded a notorious Angels' killer and best clutch hitter. Billy Beane knows more about baseball than I could learn in several lifetimes but he f'd up royally on this one.

I'm voting Cespedes for MVP then.

[Troll Daddy]

no doubt in my mind that A's downfall can be traced to the Cespedes deal.

 

He was the spark-plug for their offense and this is a dynamic that you really can't measure with stats.

 

Lester has pitched well for the A's and has done what they asked and Smardjzia (I can't ever spell his name right or get even close, the Notre Dame TE guy) has pitched well for them and will be back -- Hammel has not done that well for the A's........but he's an arm for their rotation and I think he's signed through next year......so A's will be fine........

 

but this year's collapse?  Trace to a very un-Billy Beane like deal -- the Cespedes (and a real top prospect) for rental Lester et. al........terrible move -- and I posted it at the time it was made -- many folks here did although there was a debate but most here agreed it was a really bad deal for the A's and that's been proven to be the case.

 

I still think there's going to be some bad news for Cespedes this off-season and then, suddenly, the deal will make a little more sense. Maybe.

 

I disagree ... there's no doubt they took a hit on offense but not nearly as big as you believe it to be. Their pitching staff without Lester wasn't nearly strong enough to carry them to their goal. Their chances of making the playoffs are still very good. The recent struggles should bring them closer as a team and potentially very dangerous in the playoffs.

 

I would love to see Seattle vs A's in the wild card game.

Edited September 20, 2014 by Troll Daddy

[Jeff Fletcher]

Let me add: anyone who thinks that Donaldson, Moss, Vogt, Crisp, etc. would have their performance fall because Cespedes was no longer around does not understand Major League Baseball players.

I don't buy the "pitchers approach the lineup differently when he's in there" argument either because he was not Barry Bonds. He's a good player but not the kind who changes the entire dynamic of a lineup.

They had a lot of injuries and slumps that coincided with the trade.

John Lester has been one of the top 10 starters in the majors. They replaced Jesse Chavez with John Lester every 5 days and they replaced Cespedes with Johnny Gomes for 1/9th of their PAs.

Obviously I'll agree that the deal is only good for '14 and if they don't win this year, is has a chance to be bad. But if you only care about this year, which I believe was the A's thinking, it was totally logical to think they'd be better this year with Lester than Cespedes.

And once they're in the playoffs, Lester on the mound... I'd take that.

[Hollyw00d]

But but but intangibles and stuff

[CAAngelsLifer]

The asinine A's broadcasters just made fun of Ben Revere limping, suggesting he is faking a minor injury from last night's game. Revere turned around and robbed Sogard of an extra base hit. LOL. I hate the A's.

I want them to miss the playoffs altogether so we don't have to deal with them anymore. if they get into the WC spot we might see that offense ignite and no one wants that. Not with the pitching they have available. I don't completely trust this collapse until it is complete. 

[Docwaukee]

I just have a hard time discounting the A's at this point.  Especially if we end up playing them.  I they squeak in and win the WC game, they are just as dangerous as anyone else.  It will be interesting to see how they play if they do make it as they may play better knowing that they barely squeaked in.  It could loosen them up.  

 

The Angels are going to have to hit the ball against very good pitching which is no easy task.  But they have the best offense and probably the best bullpen.  Yet their rotation is barely one at all at this point.  Any team in the mix is a viable candidate to move on.  

[DW711]

If the A's make it...they'll need everyone. Jaso, Gentry, Crisp..whoever (minus Gomes or Callaspo).

 

The Angels won that trade. I concede.

 

This offense is so bad and the defense is pretty atrocious too.

 

The starters have to give up negative runs for them to have a chance at a win 90% of the time.

Edited September 20, 2014 by DW711

[ettin]

It was the Cespedes trade. I know stat geeks will never, never accept this, but sometimes a player brings so-called intangibles to a club. Oakland stunk 4 out of 5 years before, out of nowhere, they made themselves relevant by out-bidding the large market teams for the guy. Suddenly, they become one of the best teams in baseball for 2 2/3 seasons.

If wins and losses are the only things that matter in sports, lets check the scoreboard.

 

A's win-loss record with Cespedes in the starting lineup

2012 82-46

2013 83-50

2014 63-35

 

228-131 .635 winning pct.

 

A's win-loss record without Cespedes in the starting lineup

2012 12-22

2013 13-16

2014 21-34

 

46-72 .390 winning pct.

 

They're not even the same team. I don't know why they are better with him than without him. They just are. I was thrilled when they traded a notorious Angels' killer and best clutch hitter. Billy Beane knows more about baseball than I could learn in several lifetimes but he f'd up royally on this one.

 

So first of all gurn I believe in statistical relevance but I don't worship it and disregard everything else and I don't think that most people on this site do that.

 

Over the last couple of years when someone mentioned the Oakland A's to me my mind would immediately wander to who their top players were and I always immediately thought of Yoenis Cespedes first. As Jeff mentioned he was not a super star but he is and was a good player. He was an above average offensive and defensive player with a rifle for an arm.

 

Every year as the trade deadline approaches teams that are in contention are always wondering if their respective front offices are going to make "a big move" to help bolster their odds of making the playoffs.

 

When the A's made the big trade for Samardzija and Hammel you had the sense that the A's were happy. Although I have not researched this it seems that most teams in contention near the trade deadline generally make one, maybe two moves to help their team. The A's brought in two pitchers not just one in that first trade. I can't help but think that the A's players felt surprised when the second trade happened.

 

The Cespedes trade took away a clear figurehead of their team and although Lester certainly has helped the team it is possible that the A's players didn't see the value of trading one good player for another, especially one that had been a difference maker during the season up to that point.

 

As Jeff and some other writers have pointed out other players have gone very cold in the last couple of months which has certainly contributed to the A's losses. Statistically the Cespedes trade has helped the A's because Lester has been quite good. However you can't help but sense that the other A's position players have felt an increased responsibility to produce for their team and it is a possibility that when players like Brandon Moss push themselves to be the "guy" it can lead to them pressing at the plate and result in poorer performance.

 

It could be as simple as other players not performing and have nothing to do with clubhouse leadership and chemistry but when I think of the A's now I don't immediately drift to thinking about any one particular player. Perhaps the A's leadership took a hit when Cespedes left and has had an ill effect on those that remained.

[Bruce Nye]

Update for today.Through 7 innings Phila 2, Oak 0

 

Pitching 7 innings for the Phils?  Jerome Williams.

[Blarg]

OMG

[Bruce Nye]

Bastardo relieved in the 8th.  Now 3-0 - Top 9

[DW711]

Worst offense of all time.

 

I knew Norris would hit into that double play and that was their only shot.

 

That was the A's only shot versus Jerome Williams during a day game.

 

Hideous.

[SoCALkid]

Lol there are still plenty of A's fans who are calling people morons for thinking the Cespedes trade had something to do with their sudden drop. I think it may take some time for the wound to heal until they finally admit it.

[seenoevil]

If the A's make it into the playoffs, anything can happen

[Blarg]

The A's are trying very hard to back out of the wild card playoff but the Mariners and Royals won't bail them out.

[Bruce Nye]

Here's an interesting stat.  The LAT reported today that Jerome Williams beat the A's for the 3rd time this year with three different teams - Houston, Texas and Philadelphia.