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Intro to Scoring project – 4BaseScore


Cycled314

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Hi to all you Angels fans,

 

This is to introduce my scoring project which I began almost 15 months ago, just playing around with an idea, using STL Cardinals and LA Angels (2013 & 2014) as test teams. 

 

If you want to dive in and not read all below here's my website where I'm storing all my work:  http://*on my website see: Game 075 – 06-21-14 – PHI 1 – STL 4 – Matt Adams example)

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I like the look of the score card, it's a nice way to look at the recap of the game.

 

In terms of 'value' though there are some issues. The most obvious is that the stat doesn't take into consideration defense.

 

The second thing I notice is the weighting of events. The stat is essentially "Total, Total Bases." The problem though, is that there is no consideration for the difficulty of each base (it's harder to reach first base than it is to reach second after already reaching first), and there is no consideration for the value of each base (getting yourself to second base is not twice as valuable as getting yourself to first base).

 

Lastly, stealing second base is not less valuable than coming home when the next batter hits a home run. There is an issue of proper assignment on the base running component, and the stat will suffer from overrating players who hit behind speedsters, and in front of sluggers. Since the 'base running' component is so huge a lot of a players total value is going to be tied to a players place in the lineup.

 

Essentially this stat is Runs + RBIs, but you are counting every base, instead of just counting when a run is tallied.  

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Good points and I have to write fast b/c I'm scoring both LAA & STL live right now.

 

Defense - as much as I would've liked to factor it in - was just impossible for me to do given available time and tools at my disposal so my view is that let's just say we did this for Trout and Carbrera and they were tied in my system, the defense that Trout provides would make him the clear winner.  I accepted that I couldn't do defense and since it's such a hot metric that entities much larger than me are working on I saw it as an overlay or tie-breaker type of thing.  I only put errors in there (and sometimes wish I hadn't) as a nod to people who want to see the "Runs/Hits/Errors" standard box and because if 2 guys are battling for a position, one is good glove, the other good bat, I wanted to factor in the cost of an error by "good bat"  (specifically 2013 Descalso good bat vs 2013 Kozma good glove).

 

I debated internally and among others about weighting and what I call free rides (i.e. a guy on 1st gets a "free ride" base running base for advancing on the batters' walk) but he should get that.  What you maybe don't see in the final game scoring is the ups and downs of the players through the course of the game ... it's pretty cool and quite the horse race.

 

I want to give you one quick example about the benefit of hitting in front of or behind whomever - speedster, slugger, whatever ==>  you still have to produce. 

 

This year Matheny put Kolton Wong in the 2-hole practically every game (don't have time to pull the numbers) so you'd expect him to be an extreme beneficiary of Matt Carpenters ability to get on base in front of him  ... but here's the thing - because Wong didn't do enough to produce he is way down on my Aggregate table despite getting the "benefit" of batting behind Carpenter.  Conversely Jon Jay who for almost the entire season has been buried down in the 6th, 7th or 8th spot is one of the top contributors and believe me he had very little to work with down where Matheny had him.  Finally over the last few games Matheny has adjusted the order.

 

The bottom line is I always pictured someone keeping their manual symbol scorecard and if they showed the action with a "notch" on their card I tally it with a "1". 

 

RBIs - or what I call credit for the run (a guy on 3rd scores on a PB) - is essentially a bonus point and should be. 

 

Much longer reply than I intended ... I'm probably 2 innings behind on each game.  Gotta run.  Appreciate the discussion, will check back later.

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Chuck & InsidePitch - Thanks guys, means a lot.  I'm certainly committed to finishing 2014 season & postseason.  2015 will depend on if I can find revenue/human resource help for this.

 

One request to anyone:  During my seeking feedback phase, from experts inside the game,  I never was able to interact with a currently active player so if anyone has the ability to email my website link to a current Angel or Cardinal it would be huge for me: https://www.4basescore.com/ 

 

What I heard from the retired MLB player and a current MLB coach who reviewed my work is that there are players who " ... give themselves up for the team time and time again with nothing to show for it ... "

 

I believe an active player would like to see that someone is accounting for their advancing runners and taking extra bases, etc.

 

 

Current counts: 

Games scored 622+

Data line items (LAA & STL):  23,832 +

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