Interesting article from CBS Sports re: Richards Injury

[Taylor]

The Angels have a .566 winning percentage in games when Richards starts, which would amount to a 4-3 record in his seven remaining spots in the rotation. Even if the Angels go 3-4 in those 7 starts (which isn't a stretch by any means), that's only a difference of one game.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24670595/garrett-richardss-injury-doesnt-bury-the-angels

 

Structurally, baseball just doesn't allow a team to be wrecked by a single injury -- their contributions are necessarily limited. They start once every five days. They pitch out of the bullpen just a handful of innings per week. They come to the plate just once every nine batters. Even the most rangy of up-the-middle defenders get to just a few balls per game. And so on.

 

In the case of Richards, if he doesn't pitch again then the Angels are likely looking at missing out on seven of his regular season starts. That's out of 37 total games left to play. This season, the Angels have played .566 ball when Richards hasn't started. Basically, they're a little better than the Royals when someone besides Richards is their starting pitcher. Scale that out over the remainder of the season, and the Angels get to between 95 and 96 wins and almost certainly make the playoffs.

 

Sure, Jered Weaver, Matt Shoemaker, Hector Santiago and C.J. Wilson and pick 'em (recall that Tyler Skaggs is done for the season) hardly amount to an optimal rotation, but given the strength of the Angels' offense and the depth of their revamped bullpen, it's enough. Again, the Halos have margin for decline, and it's late-ish August. 

Edited August 21, 2014 by Taylor

[rageous]

His injury shouldn't greatly effect the regular season but it will be huge once the playoff starts.

He was going to be the starter in the one game playoff or start game one in all series.

[T.G.]

From that same article...

 

After all, it wasn't so long ago that the 2011 Cardinals claimed both belt and title without a single inning from Adam Wainwright.

[tdawg87]

I agree. The talent will be there. LeBlanc making 7 starts in place of Richards isn't going to derail anything.

It's all about where their heads are at. And with Sosh at the helm, I think they'll be fine in that regard.

[Angel Oracle]

The new rotation harkens back to 2002, albeit without anyone having Washburn's tremendous ERA+.

 

And another 2002 kicker: Mickey Callaway, who helped to replace Aaron Sele after he went down for the season, even outpitched a 20 game winner (Derek Lowe) in late August that season in Fenway Park.

 

Can LeBlanc, Wolf, and whoever collectively come up big just often enough in these 7 starts?

[ten ocho recon scout]

From that same article...

After all, it wasn't so long ago that the 2011 Cardinals claimed both belt and title without a single inning from Adam Wainwright.

was gonna post something similar last night, but I think theyre other guys were more solid than ours

[stormngt]

2010. The Angels are competing for another consecutive title......then Morales Goes down. I don't buy the one injury line.

His injury shouldn't greatly effect the regular season but it will be huge once the playoff starts.

He was going to be the starter in the one game playoff or start game one in all series.

[DoubleOffTheWall]

Eh, we r in trouble. The 2011 cardinals model doesnt aplly cuz they had carpenter, who is an ace when healthy. You really think weaver can step up like that for the next 8 weeks?

[yk9001]

2010. The Angels are competing for another consecutive title......then Morales Goes down. I don't buy the one injury line.

 

 

It was Memorial Day weekend, the season was only two months old.

[stormngt]

Another example. Angels 1995....then discarcina goes down.

[fan_since79]

Eh, we r in trouble. The 2011 cardinals model doesnt aplly cuz they had carpenter, who is an ace when healthy. You really think weaver can step up like that for the next 8 weeks?

 

Absolutely.

[laagamer]

Sky is falling 

[zenmaster]

This is one way to polish a turd!

 

With that being said, I think we will see a dominant Weaver from here on out. I predict lights out.

[DowningRules]

It's an extreme reach, but the thing is, I doubt the Angels win that game last night if Richards does not get injured.  I hate that he got injured and the priority is his health, of course.

 

But consider that it likely took Richards' injury for the Angels to win that game.  He was not pitching a good game, and showed flashes of a few of his previous crappy starts.  My point is that in the regular season, the current team is capable of overcoming an awful injury to their best pitcher.  I think they can do it in the post-season, should they get there.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Time to get all my Dodger gear out of storage.

[DoubleOffTheWall]

for us to win in the postseason, we need someone to have an atypical stretch of success in them.

 

like when jeff weaver became a legend during that 06 cardinals run.

 

someone like shoemaker or santiago (in addition to jered weaver) is going to have to step up big. 

[19HALO71]

My take:

 

Offense needs to wake the F%ck Up!!!!

 

Too many one run ball games will tax our bullpen. That's when we will run into trouble.

[Stradling]

Eh, we r in trouble. The 2011 cardinals model doesnt aplly cuz they had carpenter, who is an ace when healthy. You really think weaver can step up like that for the next 8 weeks?

He doesn't have too, he has to be really good in the playoffs

[Hollyw00d]

I agree, we need Blantiago to carry this rotation.... That makes me a bit nervous. CJ has got to be at least an average pitcher again

[Ohtaniland]

So the article basically says we really don't need him because he really wouldn't make that much of a difference down the stretch.

Laughable! He's our best pitcher. He is the difference IMHO. He is Weaver 2011.

[Taylor]

So the article basically says we really don't need him because he really wouldn't make that much of a difference down the stretch.

Laughable! He's our best pitcher. He is the difference IMHO. He is Weaver 2011.

 

Still, a .566 winning percentage with him on the mound. That's really solid, but it's not like it was an automatic win when he pitched.

[dimitrig]

The Angels have a .566 winning percentage in games when Richards starts, which would amount to a 4-3 record in his seven remaining spots in the rotation. Even if the Angels go 3-4 in those 7 starts (which isn't a stretch by any means), that's only a difference of one game.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24670595/garrett-richardss-injury-doesnt-bury-the-angels

 

The article says the Angels have a .566 winning percentage in games in which Richard DOES NOT start. Since they are at .600 I have to imagine they are well over .600 when he does start.

[ABC]

Still, a .566 winning percentage with him on the mound. That's really solid, but it's not like it was an automatic win when he pitched.

 

You keep saying that incorrectly. 

 

Even if true, which it is not, that is a simpleton's view and has many more variables than just whether a pitcher starts and the resulting outcome. Especially for an exceptional pitcher. Sometimes I wonder if this board mainly has thirteen year olds and senile elderly making ninety percent of the posts.

[ABC]

Just so everyone is clear, not that it is a definitive stat, not even close, however:

 

Team win % GR starting: .731

Team win % GR not starting: .566

[Angel Oracle]

The problem with DiSar going down in 1995 was that Chili Davis and Tony Phillips were really the only other regulars in the lineup/in the field with solid MLB experience. 

It was a young team that eventually and likely missed DiSar's experience.  

 

This lineup has plenty of experience in it.    Weaver, Wilson, Street, Grilli, Smith, and Jepsen all have significant MLB experience on the mound.

Edited August 21, 2014 by Angel Oracle