The Process of JeDi Leadership

[Guest]

We were never going to get Greinke.  He was going to the highest bidder, and the Dodgers were is full on insane mode. 

 

 

 

Anibal Sanchez (5/88, age 29-34yo seasons with a 16m option and 5m buyout) 

49 Starts.  3.06 era.  9.7 fWAR

 

We weren't getting Greinke just like we weren't getting Tanaka.  Not sure we had a chance at Sanchez either considering that Detroit swooped in to match and offer from the cubs. 

 

It's not like all three guys are just sitting in front of you and you just make your pick.  In general, position players seem the safer bet because of their everyday contribution.  Hamilton had red flags, but it was impossible to anticipate what happened

 

Also, you can't just compare player to player.  It would have been Greinke and Morales instead of Hamilton and Vargas.  Which makes it a little more reasonable. 

At the time I wanted to see us sign Sanchez and keep Morales as our left handed power bat. Doing a move similar to the Trumbo for Skaggs + Santiago a season earlier would have been a huge help as well. 

[Angelsjunky]

Using hindsight but also bring in the current state of the team at the time they looked at Grienke for once every five games or Trout, Pujols and Hamilton every game and felt run production for the other pitchers held more value.

Now, as soon as the Pujols and Hamilton they purchased play at that level for an entire season the choice is a no brainer.

 

So the problem here is Dipoto's inability to accurately assess Pujols and Hamilton. I know these are complex issues, but the fact that it happened twice, two years in a row, is worrisome. Now of course we can blame this on Arte, and maybe he's ultimately where the blame lies, but the end result is the same: the Angels have two mega-star contracts that are essentially league average players being payed an average total of $55MM a year for three more years, and then Pujols owed $140MM more. In total, it is almost $400 million being spend on two average players. In the old days people would call those sorts of players "hot dogs."

 

Anyhow, the bottom line is that it is a total and complete waste of resources, or at least very poor allocation.

[Guest]

So the problem here is Dipoto's inability to accurately assess Pujols and Hamilton. I know these are complex issues, but the fact that it happened twice, two years in a row, is worrisome. Now of course we can blame this on Arte, and maybe he's ultimately where the blame lies, but the end result is the same: the Angels have two mega-star contracts that are essentially league average players being payed an average total of $55MM a year for three more years, and then Pujols owed $140MM more. In total, it is almost $400 million being spend on two average players. In the old days people would call those sorts of players "hot dogs."

 

Anyhow, the bottom line is that it is a total and complete waste of resources, or at least very poor allocation.

I'm very surprised at how badly Pujols has declined but expected Hamilton to be pretty bad after the second half of his 2012 season. 

[Docwaukee]

So the problem here is Dipoto's inability to accurately assess Pujols and Hamilton. I know these are complex issues, but the fact that it happened twice, two years in a row, is worrisome. Now of course we can blame this on Arte, and maybe he's ultimately where the blame lies, but the end result is the same: the Angels have two mega-star contracts that are essentially league average players being payed an average total of $55MM a year for three more years, and then Pujols owed $140MM more. In total, it is almost $400 million being spend on two average players. In the old days people would call those sorts of players "hot dogs."

 

Anyhow, the bottom line is that it is a total and complete waste of resources, or at least very poor allocation.

 

I am actually not all that concerned about how the Angels are going to absorb these two contracts.  Sure it isn't ideal, but as one of the largest market teams, they can overcome some dead weight. But in doing so, they have to be more efficient in other areas ie using other org currency appropriately.  We don't really know for sure where the line is drawn in terms of financial resources, but safe to assume it will always be somewhere around the lux tax. 

 

The real issue becomes not just the ability to add talent, but the availability of that talent.  We are going to need starting pitching and in particular, a front line starter.  Where is it going to come from?  Every time you add a player that produces at a level that isn't commensurate with cost (ie in terms of both prospects or cash), you decrease your options. 

[Angelsjunky]

I am actually not all that concerned about how the Angels are going to absorb these two contracts.  Sure it isn't ideal, but as one of the largest market teams, they can overcome some dead weight. But in doing so, they have to be more efficient in other areas ie using other org currency appropriately.  We don't really know for sure where the line is drawn in terms of financial resources, but safe to assume it will always be somewhere around the lux tax. 

 

The real issue becomes not just the ability to add talent, but the availability of that talent.  We are going to need starting pitching and in particular, a front line starter.  Where is it going to come from?  Every time you add a player that produces at a level that isn't commensurate with cost (ie in terms of both prospects or cash), you decrease your options. 

 

It is worth noting that even subtracting the Pujols and Hamilton contracts, the Angels still have a larger payroll than the Athletics. So for instance, according to Baseball Reference, the Angels have a 2014 payroll of $163.7M. Take away Pujols and Hamilton ($40M total) and that goes down to $123.7M. And then you have Wells still being paid ($18.6M) as well as Blanton ($7.5M). Take those out and we're down to $97.6M.

 

The Athletics? They're at $90.2M - and I think that includes all of Lester's ($13M) and Gomes' ($5M) contracts, but am not sure.

 

But here is where it gets tricky, and where you see how difficult things may be for the Angels. Next year the Angels have $120.5M owed to 9 players; in 2016 it is $126M to 7 players, and then $77.5M to 3 players in 2017, and then about $60M to two players for each year of 2018-20, and $30M to one player in 2021 (ancient Albert).

 

And the Athletics? They owe 4 players $29M next year, 2 players $12.58M in 2016, 1 player $3.38M in 2017 and 1 player $4.38M in 2018. In other words, Beane has enormous flexibility to create his rosters going forward, with very little money owed.

 

None of this includes arbitration.

 

Anyhow, so while you could say that Dipoto has as much, or almost as much freedom as Beane in terms of future payroll because the Angels have a much larger payroll than the A's, it is important to point out that the Angels would have alot more freedom and resources if they hadn't locked so much of their payroll into Pujols and Hamilton.

Edited August 4, 2014 by Angelsjunky

[Blarg]

So the problem here is Dipoto's inability to accurately assess Pujols and Hamilton. I know these are complex issues, but the fact that it happened twice, two years in a row, is worrisome. Now of course we can blame this on Arte, and maybe he's ultimately where the blame lies, but the end result is the same: the Angels have two mega-star contracts that are essentially league average players being payed an average total of $55MM a year for three more years, and then Pujols owed $140MM more. In total, it is almost $400 million being spend on two average players. In the old days people would call those sorts of players "hot dogs."

 

Anyhow, the bottom line is that it is a total and complete waste of resources, or at least very poor allocation.

 

Your prejudices are showing when you state Pujols and Hamilton as league average. They have not been the superstar contract player but certainly above the average player. Pujols, even with his bad foot last season has produced to a 128 OPS+ (hey, part of the topic) over 3 seasons, which makes him above league average by quite a margin.

 

In fact his first season he posted a 138 OPS+ and in this decade of repressed hitting stats his .859 OPS put him 24th in all of baseball. 30 teams, ranked 24th, that is not league average. This season his .789 OPS is dropping him to 55 (not his age), not a star caliber performance but still not league average.

 

Hamilton..., yeah, he's a train wreck and most sober people on the board knew he was and would always be a roller coaster player. His previous seasons to being an Angel he always got his numbers but it seems like he went into hibernation for a couple of months a season then exploded into MVP form. He has yet to do that here but even with his up and down play this season he is still performing above average with a 128 OPS+. Again, the contract and the production do not match but he is not at league average, although he is above average in fan frustration. His .800 OPS would currently rank him about 43rd if he had enough at bats to qualify.

 

If you want to argue the Angels are not getting their money's worth fine, but these guys are not league average unless that league is only comprised of the over $20 million a year players. Then again most of those guys are pretty flakey as well.

[Chuck]

It is worth noting that even subtracting the Pujols and Hamilton contracts, the Angels still have a larger payroll than the Athletics. So for instance, according to Baseball Reference, the Angels have a 2014 payroll of $163.7M. Take away Pujols and Hamilton ($40M total) and that goes down to $123.7M. And then you have Wells still being paid ($18.6M) as well as Blanton ($7.5M). Take those out and we're down to $97.6M.

 

The Athletics? They're at $90.2M - and I think that includes all of Lester's ($13M) and Gomes' ($5M) contracts, but am not sure.

 

But here is where it gets tricky, and where you see how difficult things may be for the Angels. Next year the Angels have $120.5M owed to 9 players; in 2016 it is $126M to 7 players, and then $77.5M to 3 players in 2017, and then about $60M to two players for each year of 2018-20, and $30M to one player in 2021 (ancient Albert).

 

And the Athletics? They owe 4 players $29M next year, 2 players $12.58M in 2016, 1 player $3.38M in 2017 and 1 player $4.38M in 2018. In other words, Beane has enormous flexibility to create his rosters going forward, with very little money owed.

 

None of this includes arbitration.

 

Anyhow, so while you could say that Dipoto has as much, or almost as much freedom as Beane in terms of future payroll because the Angels have a much larger payroll than the A's, it is important to point out that the Angels would have alot more freedom and resources if they hadn't locked so much of their payroll into Pujols and Hamilton.

 

 

Beane has freedom to trade away top prospects for a half year of help to try to get to the big dance, which he still hasn't. He has no freedom to sign superstars to long term contracts, including Mike  Trout. Beane would have traded Trout by now if he was in the A's system. 

[Angelsjunky]

Your prejudices are showing when you state Pujols and Hamilton as league average. They have not been the superstar contract player but certainly above the average player. Pujols, even with his bad foot last season has produced to a 128 OPS+ (hey, part of the topic) over 3 seasons, which makes him above league average by quite a margin.

 

In fact his first season he posted a 138 OPS+ and in this decade of repressed hitting stats his .859 OPS put him 24th in all of baseball. 30 teams, ranked 24th, that is not league average. This season his .789 OPS is dropping him to 55 (not his age), not a star caliber performance but still not league average.

 

Hamilton..., yeah, he's a train wreck and most sober people on the board knew he was and would always be a roller coaster player. His previous seasons to being an Angel he always got his numbers but it seems like he went into hibernation for a couple of months a season then exploded into MVP form. He has yet to do that here but even with his up and down play this season he is still performing above average with a 128 OPS+. Again, the contract and the production do not match but he is not at league average, although he is above average in fan frustration. His .800 OPS would currently rank him about 43rd if he had enough at bats to qualify.

 

If you want to argue the Angels are not getting their money's worth fine, but these guys are not league average unless that league is only comprised of the over $20 million a year players. Then again most of those guys are pretty flakey as well.

 

Aside from the question of what you mean by my "prejudices"--other than that I think these contracts suck (is that prejudice?)--I hear your point, but let's be clear about context. When I say "league average" I'm talking relative to first basemen for Pujols and corner outfielders for Hamilton. A league average first baseman is a better hitter than a league average shortstop or catcher.

 

So when we look at Pujols, here's how he ranks over his tenure with the Angels (2012-14) in the AL among first basemen. I'll set PA at 1000 total, which gives 19 qualifiers:

 

7th in fWAR with 6.4.

7th in wRC+ with 123.

 

The wRC+ for AL first basemen for those three years is around 110, so at 123 Pujols is above average. So you're right that he's not simply an average first baseman. But he's not exactly a star or even a borderline star - he's an above average regular, which is pretty hard to swallow for his contract and the fact that at "34" he's unlikely to improve.

 

Beane has freedom to trade away top prospects for a half year of help to try to get to the big dance, which he still hasn't. He has no freedom to sign superstars to long term contracts, including Mike  Trout. Beane would have traded Trout by now if he was in the A's system. 

 

It is an interesting hypothetical. My guess is that he would have extended Trout. He has been known to occasionally sign players long-term, but in a very picky way. For instance, I remember when--after the 2003 season--Beane ended up letting Tejada go and signing Chavez to a long-term contract. At the time it seemed the right thing to do, as Tejada was a tad overrated probably had already peaked, while Chavez was 4 years younger and seemingly hadn't peaked yet. Of course Tejada continued strong for a few more years, while Chavez never was able to overcome his injuries and became a disappointment.

 

But I think Beane knows talent and would have locked up Trout anyway possible.

[YouthofToday]

Greinke is likely to opt out after next season.

[Inside Pitch]

Beane has freedom to trade away top prospects for a half year of help to try to get to the big dance, which he still hasn't. He has no freedom to sign superstars to long term contracts, including Mike  Trout. Beane would have traded Trout by now if he was in the A's system. 

 

A lot of A's fans are talking about Beane possibly getting ready to retire and as such is putting in a last ditch effort to win it all once.  You guy should check out this thread  http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=304&f=2062&t=13020560 Chuck, mods, et al..  If posting the link breaks any rules, delete or whatever.

[Inside Pitch]

Greinke is likely to opt out after next season.

 

I'd put money on it.

[Chuck]

A lot of A's fans are talking about Beane possibly getting ready to retire and as such is putting in a last ditch effort to win it all once.  You guy should check out this thread  http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=304&f=2062&t=13020560 Chuck, mods, et al..  If posting the link breaks any rules, delete or whatever.

 

No, not at all IP. We almost migrated over to Scout and FoxSports years ago when asked. Glad we didn't, but the gal who runs the Oakland site over at Scout is really cool. Melissa Lockhart.

[Inside Pitch]

No, not at all IP. We almost migrated over to Scout and FoxSports years ago when asked. Glad we didn't, but the gal who runs the Oakland site over at Scout is really cool. Melissa Lockhart.

Cool, and yeah she is --  They have a lot of really solid posters there.  Minstrel in particular is about a solid a guy to talk ball with as I've come across on the internet.  Plenty of others.   That thread is pretty interesting to read.  Goes to show how hard home town fans can be on their own team.

[Lou]

Re: A's Trade Cespedes for Gomes, Lester

"This is like me taking all of my retirement savings and spending it all. Tonight.

"

their fans hated the trade. Meanwhile, many folks here were breaking out their well-worn Billy Beane kneepads

Edited August 4, 2014 by Lou

[Angelsjunky]

Lou has a hard time understanding how anyone can appreciate anything non-Angels.

 

Anyhow, Cespedes is enormously overrated. He was very good his first year but has been just decent the last two. Beane is either delusional or simply wanting to talk the fleecing he did of Boston down a bit (more likely).

[Tyler]

Pitching > Hitting

[Lou]

Lou has a hard time understanding how anyone can appreciate anything non-Angels.

 

Anyhow, Cespedes is enormously overrated. He was very good his first year but has been just decent the last two. Beane is either delusional or simply wanting to talk the fleecing he did of Boston down a bit (more likely).

yeah, that's it

[Inside Pitch]

Re: A's Trade Cespedes for Gomes, Lester

"This is like me taking all of my retirement savings and spending it all. Tonight.

"

 

There are a lot of solid zingers from people in that thread.   Just goes to show that fans everywhere worry about giving away too much to win now.

[Inside Pitch]

 

 

Anyhow, Cespedes is enormously overrated. He was very good his first year but has been just decent the last two. Beane is either delusional or simply wanting to talk the fleecing he did of Boston down a bit (more likely).

 

 

In reading their other threads, I think it's the combo of having moved Russell and Cespedes that has people in a stir.

[Stradling]

Pitching > Hitting

Awesome, so we won the Street trade, good to hear.

[Tyler]

Awesome, so we won the Street trade, good to hear.

You're not even a good troll, like Lou.

[Lou]

thanks!

hey wait...

[Stradling]

You're not even a good troll, like Lou.

At least you have that awesome ability to take an obvious joke.

[Tyler]

It would have been good if we didnt give up 2 pitchers in the trade. Lou would have recognized that and wouldve posted Lindsey stats prior to his last 7 games or something clever I cant even think up.

[Angelsjunky]

I love you guys. Especially Lou.