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playoff odds and such


floplag

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So after doomsday, errr, the Lester to the As trade, i think some of you might be interested in how the odd may have changed.

In summary, after all is said and done at the deadline, our odds of winning the division actually went UP according to some of the better known stat sources.  Yes, you read that right, UP. 

 

Even BP who is the bible to the As has our 1 and 7 day delta as being higher than the As.

Im just gonna leave these links here for some of you to read from some sources i am sure you know...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-change-in-postseason-odds-from-yesterday/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

 

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I LOVE my MLB bets from the start of the season right now.

 

20.00 for Pirates to win the NL-payout 385.00

 

10.00 for Angels to win AL-payout 162.00

 

20.00 for Blue Jays to win AL-payout 400.00

 

20.00 for Angels to win World Series-payout 400.00

Edited by Erstad Grit
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so BP and FG, the accepted sources for all things stats, are not legit to you?

Why would the Dodgers not be the favs?  Who in the NL is better?  They have the best record in the NL, are among the top NL teams in both offense and pitching. so unless you buy into Mil or Pit to beat them i think they are likely to make it barring Wash going on a heck of a run.
Once there they have nearly as formidable a rotation as the A's or tiger's so i wonder why you would think that's a stretch?

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so BP and FG, the accepted sources for all things stats, are not legit to you?

Why would the Dodgers not be the favs?  Who in the NL is better?  They have the best record in the NL, are among the top NL teams in both offense and pitching. so unless you buy into Mil or Pit to beat them i think they are likely to make it barring Wash going on a heck of a run.

Once there they have nearly as formidable a rotation as the A's or tiger's so i wonder why you would think that's a stretch?

 

Cardinals will be the favorite in the NL ... Lackey!

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so BP and FG, the accepted sources for all things stats, are not legit to you?

Why would the Dodgers not be the favs? Who in the NL is better? They have the best record in the NL, are among the top NL teams in both offense and pitching. so unless you buy into Mil or Pit to beat them i think they are likely to make it barring Wash going on a heck of a run.

Once there they have nearly as formidable a rotation as the A's or tiger's so i wonder why you would think that's a stretch?

while I agree the dogs are the best team in the suddenly weaker NL (st lou and cinc taking huge steps back, giants being more average than good, atlanta having a horribly weak offense, etc), the dodgers compared to the AL contending teams isnt at the top of the list, regardless of how the media is trying to spin it.

Filthy SP....borderline crap bullpen. Decent offense thats overrated due to the names that make it up. Yes, numbers wise they look good on paper.....theyve also had the easiest schedule in baseball for most of the year.

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So after doomsday, errr, the Lester to the As trade, i think some of you might be interested in how the odd may have changed.

In summary, after all is said and done at the deadline, our odds of winning the division actually went UP according to some of the better known stat sources.  Yes, you read that right, UP. 

 

Even BP who is the bible to the As has our 1 and 7 day delta as being higher than the As.

Im just gonna leave these links here for some of you to read from some sources i am sure you know...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-change-in-postseason-odds-from-yesterday/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Actually, according to Baseball Prospectus, the A's increased their chances of winning the division by 2.2% and their odds of being in the playoffs beyond the wild card game by 1.3%.

 

A's acquire Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes for Yoenis Cespedes

A’s before: 63.9 percent to win the division; 82.6 percent adjusted

A’s after: 66.1 percent to win the division; 83.9 percent adjusted

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24322

 

Should be available to non-subscribers.

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yes i saw that as well, but the other charts seems to contradict that a bit in the sense that our numbers in the last week seem to have gone up more than theirs

 

hmm, the data didn't paste well.. so i removed it, but the bottom line was the deltas.. theirs went up a little, ours went up a little more. 

Edited by floplag
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While perhaps true, still means they have a fairly easy road to the WS from the NL.

Would i make them the favorite in the WS against any of the possible AL teams, no, i would not, but when you are facing Kershaw twice or more in a series thats a nice equalizer as hes likely better than any pitcher in baseball this season.

Very true about kershaw, though id argue sale is pretty close to him. Sales doing the same thing in a tougher park and league. Not that its a knock on kershaw.

But to be fair, people were saying the same about the dodgers last season. Nd they still arent really running away with it this year. If the giants werent sich a mess, the dodgers would be in our shoes right now.

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It helps that Puig and Gordon have massively crushed initial expectations to save Ned Colletti from his financial decisions that would crush every other franchise other than the Yankees.

After the Jason Schmidt signing Im honestly confused how the dude continues to be in a situation where he actually has influence.

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Very true about kershaw, though id argue sale is pretty close to him. Sales doing the same thing in a tougher park and league. Not that its a knock on kershaw.

But to be fair, people were saying the same about the dodgers last season. Nd they still arent really running away with it this year. If the giants werent sich a mess, the dodgers would be in our shoes right now.

The scary thing about kersaw is that hitters can't even square up on his pitches recently, all ground balls. Cards are the only team that gives dodgers trouble in the nl,
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so BP and FG, the accepted sources for all things stats, are not legit to you?

Why would the Dodgers not be the favs?  Who in the NL is better?  They have the best record in the NL, are among the top NL teams in both offense and pitching. so unless you buy into Mil or Pit to beat them i think they are likely to make it barring Wash going on a heck of a run.

Once there they have nearly as formidable a rotation as the A's or tiger's so i wonder why you would think that's a stretch?

 

I would think Oakland or possibly,,,*cough*...the Angels would be the favorites IMO. 

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Very true about kershaw, though id argue sale is pretty close to him. Sales doing the same thing in a tougher park and league. Not that its a knock on kershaw.

But to be fair, people were saying the same about the dodgers last season. Nd they still arent really running away with it this year. If the giants werent sich a mess, the dodgers would be in our shoes right now

 

True enough, but i dont think we will be seeing Sale in the post this year.

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I would think Oakland or possibly,,,*cough*...the Angels would be the favorites IMO. 

 

and i would agree, but the Dodgers are, as much as we would like to bash them around here, a well balanced team that in my opinion has a fairly easy road to the NL championship and whoever faces them will get a serious dose of Kershaw, that cant be ignored.

 

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and i would agree, but the Dodgers are, as much as we would like to bash them around here, a well balanced team that in my opinion has a fairly easy road to the NL championship and whoever faces them will get a serious dose of Kershaw, that cant be ignored.

I agree that they have an easier road and a better rotation than the Angels. Their staff is much better suited for the playoffs. That being said I would rate our offense, defense and bullpen better than theirs. None of that matters if Kershaw and Greinke pitch lights out for 8 or 9 innings and shut down the other team, which sadly they are both capable of.

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and i would agree, but the Dodgers are, as much as we would like to bash them around here, a well balanced team that in my opinion has a fairly easy road to the NL championship and whoever faces them will get a serious dose of Kershaw, that cant be ignored.

The dodgers are the absolute pennant faves, and that rotstion in any given series is very dangerous.

That said, I disagree about the balance. Meager bullpen and poor defense. Their offense is above average NL wise, but if you follow them (on twitter), theyve been making their luck against very poor teams. They just got absolutely shut down by the cubs this weekend, and though they swept atlanta, the bats werent really the story.

So I agree that kershaw/grienke is about as filthy as it gets. But I think their offense is overrated, and coupled with a shakey pen and poor defense, ill take most of the AL contending teams over them.

Kershaw and grienke are beatable (though kershaw doesnt seem like it right now).

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There is also the matter of designated hitter...4 games Dogs get to add a good hitter...other 3 AL team loses DH. And Kershaw can hit too!

Its a decent point, but whos the good hitter to add? Its gonna be one of ethier/crawford, neither of which are very scary these days. Maybe they call up pederson and he gives them a shot in the arm?

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I agree that they have an easier road and a better rotation than the Angels. Their staff is much better suited for the playoffs. That being said I would rate our offense, defense and bullpen better than theirs. None of that matters if Kershaw and Greinke pitch lights out for 8 or 9 innings and shut down the other team, which sadly they are both capable of.

 

i agree with all these points, i didnt say they were better than us, i dont think they are, just that they are in my opinion well rounded and capable in pretty much all areas. 

They may not be outstanding defensively, or have a lock down pen, but it isn't a blowpen either and the defense is adequate.  They are in the middle of the pack in terms of fielding stats and the pen has an overall era of under 3.69 so.. again, good, not great, but with the starting staff more than adequate

 

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The dodgers are the absolute pennant faves, and that rotstion in any given series is very dangerous.

That said, I disagree about the balance. Meager bullpen and poor defense. Their offense is above average NL wise, but if you follow them (on twitter), theyve been making their luck against very poor teams. They just got absolutely shut down by the cubs this weekend, and though they swept atlanta, the bats werent really the story.

So I agree that kershaw/grienke is about as filthy as it gets. But I think their offense is overrated, and coupled with a shakey pen and poor defense, ill take most of the AL contending teams over them.

Kershaw and grienke are beatable (though kershaw doesnt seem like it right now).

 

i keep thinking about their supposed shoddy defense.. i mean any team that has Jose Uribe starting he bulk of the games at 3B cant be that good right?  then i keep seeing he guy still making plays.

i think their defense may be a little underrated, not many gold glove candidates per se, but not bad either.

Again im not saying they are all that or anything just that it isnt hard to see why they might be considered a favorite in this regard. getting there is almost a given unless they shit the bed so to speak, and once there whoever faces them has to beat kershaw, grienke, etc.. 4 games out of 7.   its doable, im not conceding anything, and i think we or the tigers would have a much better change at doing that then the As would for example, but it certainly wont be easy

 

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lol

 

Haha. I was being facetious btw. I am very confident about this team, though CJ's crappiness and Skaggs' injury are concerning.

 

I do think it would be very tough to beat Kershaw if he's thrown at us (or any team) 2-3 times in a series.

 

I think breaking Grienke would be easier.

 

We could shut down their offense too. 

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