July 5th, One Game Back

[Splint7438]

Would be nice to have a starter going really deep or have a blowout win. Smith and Street were both shaky last night and yet both got results. Let's try to remember that when one of them inevitably gets beat after throwing good pitches. Would love to see S&S get a day off to recharge. A little.

[Willy J.]

Having 7 games this month against a Red Sox team that just traded away 4/5's of their starting rotation should help. . .

[Tyler]

RONDONS!!

Tfw your top 3 poster becomes a bird in the flock.

[Second Base]

That would make my year if the A's went out and gave up their top prospects and Cespedes for Shark, Lester and Hammel and they still only won the Wild Card and were eliminated before the Division series.

I doubt that happens but my goodness would that be a satisfying feeling.

Anyway, the only way the Angels beat the A's for the division this year is if they defeat them in their remaining head to head battles this year. I think it's possible too. When Oakland traded Cespedes, they lost their biggest scoring threat. Their starters may be better than ours but it's no stretch to believe we'll hit more than they will, and our bullpen s better.

The A's have a habit of fighting back and winning late in games. Not against our bullpen though. We'll put them away.

[Stradling]

Season not over?

Depends on who you ask.

[Jay]

Angels have been 4 games better than Oakland since April 20th

Angels have been 5 games better than Oakland since June 21.

Numbers are fun.

[Splint7438]

Angels are undefeated in August and the As have yet to win in August.

[Inside Pitch]

I read an article today on the winners and losers at the trade deadline. They guy said he can't wait for the A's-Tigers ALCS and that it's going to be a "classic". By the way, Vegas agrees. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24645878/oddsmakers-still-have-athletics-as-world-series-favorite-following-trade-deadline

 

Meanwhile, the same sort of analysis that argued the Angels would be competitive and challenge for the division (BEFORE THE SEASON) has this to say..

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-change-in-postseason-odds-from-yesterday/

 

Biggest Losses in Division Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates: -5.9%

Baltimore Orioles: -3.2%

Oakland Athletics: -2.7%

San Francisco Giants: -2.6%

Cleveland Indians: -2.0%

 

But look at who is in third. Yep, the Oakland A’s, the team who traded for Jon Lester. They didn’t get worse, of course, but the Angels won yesterday, narrowing the A’s lead to just two games. In terms of winning their division, acquiring Lester will absolutely help, but the Angels losing last night might have helped even more. If you’re curious, I did note yesterday after the trade — but before the Angels win — that the A’s divisional odds had improved from 70% to 71%, so even if the Angels had been off, the Lester trade still wouldn’t have moved the needle for the A’s all that much. Swapping out a good outfielder for a good pitcher just doesn’t make you that much better.

Edited August 2, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

...and the clowns on Going Roggin were just saying the Angels have no shot at catching the As and might as well play for the WC 

 

Did Fred Roggin ever kick his cocaine habit?  

[Taylor]

Having 7 games this month against a Red Sox team that just traded away 4/5's of their starting rotation should help. . .

 

Not with our hitters flailing away against Cy McAAADebut in 6 of those games.

[Lhalo]

Games against the a's will make or break the division

Wild card is a lock tho

 

I'm guessing you're too young to remember '95.

[laagamer]

I bet we finish 30 games over .500

 

We keep increasing at a steady rate now, why should it stop?  

 

We're a damn good team. 

[Guest]

Meanwhile, the same sort of analysis that argued the Angels would be competitive and challenge for the division (BEFORE THE SEASON) has this to say..

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-change-in-postseason-odds-from-yesterday/

 

Biggest Losses in Division Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates: -5.9%

Baltimore Orioles: -3.2%

Oakland Athletics: -2.7%

San Francisco Giants: -2.6%

Cleveland Indians: -2.0%

 

But look at who is in third. Yep, the Oakland A’s, the team who traded for Jon Lester. They didn’t get worse, of course, but the Angels won yesterday, narrowing the A’s lead to just two games. In terms of winning their division, acquiring Lester will absolutely help, but the Angels losing last night might have helped even more. If you’re curious, I did note yesterday after the trade — but before the Angels win — that the A’s divisional odds had improved from 70% to 71%, so even if the Angels had been off, the Lester trade still wouldn’t have moved the needle for the A’s all that much. Swapping out a good outfielder for a good pitcher just doesn’t make you that much better.

 

The benefit of the Lester trade is slim n terms of the regular season. My guess is Hammel will be gone from the rotation and Lester will effectively fill his spot. Had the A's stood pat he basically would have been replacing Milone. Hammel was a downgrade, Lester is an upgrade. Over the remaining third of a season an upgrade from Milone to Lester might bring them a few regular season wins. Losing Cespedes might cost them one or two

 

The whole idea of the trade was to build a stacked rotation for the playoffs. Lester, Shark, Gray and Kazmir is absurdly good. Even if one of those guys had a bad start in a playoff game they could afford to lift him early and throw in another starter without missing a beat.

 

Too bad the Angels v A's series isn't the last series of the season. I would love to see this end the way it did in 2012 with the 2nd place team sweeping the division leader and overtaking the division for the first time on the last day.

 

Looking at the schedule I have a very bad feeling the angels postseason aspirations will be killed by a barrage of invisible arrows. Even if we have a slim lead in the division at the very end the Angels close with a 4 game set in Seattle. The A's close with a 4 game set in Arlington

[Docwaukee]

Tfw your top 3 poster becomes a bird in the flock.

It's a joke dude.  I am still not a fan of that trade.  Shhhhhhhhh

[Second Base]

Meanwhile, the same sort of analysis that argued the Angels would be competitive and challenge for the division (BEFORE THE SEASON) has this to say..

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-change-in-postseason-odds-from-yesterday/

 

Biggest Losses in Division Odds

Oakland Athletics: -2.7%

 

The Lester trade still wouldn’t have moved the needle for the A’s all that much. Swapping out a good outfielder for a good pitcher just doesn’t make you that much better.

 

I sort of feel like the A's made the move with the playoffs in mind and not for the regular season.  Pitching is more important in the playoffs and I think perhaps Billy Beane felt like his ticket to the post season was already punched.  I'm not saying by any stretch that he's wrong, but if the A's can't fight off the Angels, they'll need to step up in the one game playoff. 

[gurn67]

Hopefully, the A's have a few more games like last night to erode their confidence. A 1 run loss at home by a team that has been seemingly invincible in close games at home and on the road all season. With Cespedes in the lineup last night, maybe they win or maybe they lose, but the players know that for 4 months they had an uncanny ability to come back almost any time they needed too. However, the middle of that incredible come from behind offense has been removed. I think this is a case where Beane only looked at the numbers side of the game and forgot the mental side.

[Inside Pitch]

I sort of feel like the A's made the move with the playoffs in mind and not for the regular season.  Pitching is more important in the playoffs and I think perhaps Billy Beane felt like his ticket to the post season was already punched.  I'm not saying by any stretch that he's wrong, but if the A's can't fight off the Angels, they'll need to step up in the one game playoff. 

 

Yep.   That rotation has no weak spots in a single series.

[QuinlansMinion]

Trading Cespedes for Lester downgrades their team.  They had a solid rotation already.  I think they are going to have a difficult time scoring runs offensively.

 

Fuld

Jaso

Donaldson

Moss

Lowrie

Vogt

Reddick

Callaspo

Sogard

 

Thats not a lineup that really scares anyone.  I dont care if they have good pitching, everyone in the posteason has good pitching.

[seenoevil]

Trading Cespedes for Lester downgrades their team.  They had a solid rotation already.  I think they are going to have a difficult time scoring runs offensively.

 

Fuld

Jaso

Donaldson

Moss

Lowrie

Vogt

Reddick

Callaspo

Sogard

 

Thats not a lineup that really scares anyone.  I dont care if they have good pitching, everyone in the posteason has good pitching.

 

I agree. They were better balanced before the trade. If Starting pitching wins in the post season, then the Dodgers should had won it last year

[bloodbrother]

Trading Cespedes for Lester downgrades their team.  They had a solid rotation already.  I think they are going to have a difficult time scoring runs offensively.

 

Fuld

Jaso

Donaldson

Moss

Lowrie

Vogt

Reddick

Callaspo

Sogard

 

Thats not a lineup that really scares anyone.  I dont care if they have good pitching, everyone in the posteason has good pitching.

 

 

Today they ran out

 

Fuld

Lowrie

Donaldson

Norris

Gomes

Vogt

Callaspo

Reddick

Punto

 

they've put up 8 runs thus far. It's time to ignore the names you see in their lineup because while it doesn't stand out, they continue to put up excellent results, and have been for over 2 seasons now.