Stock Market: The Thread

[mrwicked]

[ten ocho recon scout]

Is this the sort of situation that sets up a bad crash? Like a housing bubble?

[fan_since79]

The market is really taking a hit from these new Chinese tariffs. 

And the ten-year yield is plunging, now 1.87%

 

[Lhalo]

4 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

And the ten-year yield is plunging, now 1.87%

@Brandon be like

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, Lhalo said:

@Brandon be like

You have no idea. And now as a broker it’s insane on the wholesale side. I’m in the low threes for most government loans (VA/FHA), around mid-threes for most conventional loans, and high threes (usually 3.875%) for most high balance and jumbos. All of these are free loans, too. Obviously some variables here and there.

I had some dude shopping hard but knew I can’t be beat in price and brought me Loan Estimates. I was consistently a bare minimum of a quarter lower and half the closing cost. Ended up getting him 2.875% for next to nothing in cost.

It’s a good time. I had to fire someone last week and haven’t spent on marketing as I pick up the pieces, but need to get back at it. It’s going to be a busy summer and end of the year.

My buddy that turned me onto the broker side made 75k last month after his splits. Obviously Zimas were on him.

Edited August 3, 2019 by Brandon

[fan_since79]

Trade war is heating up as China retaliates, and our market is plunging.

Dow off 495 points already and it may get much worse.

[fan_since79]

10-year Bond at 1.77%

Wow.

[fan_since79]

-747 now.

We could be down 1,000 before this day is done. 

[fan_since79]

10-year bond yield plunging.

1.63%

Hard to believe what's happening.

[fan_since79]

Trouble on Wall Street this morning as bond yields are flashing a recession signal.

Huge down day. Look out below!

Dow off 560 points already.

[Angel Oracle]

We are overdue for a recession, currently the longest period between end of previous recession and now since the Great Depression?

But also, this tariffs thing is playing havoc with investors and the world.   I hope the heck that Trump knows what he's doing. 

Have tariffs EVER truly worked?   Didn't Smoot-Hawley help to cause the Great Depression? 

[fan_since79]

There's a contrary view that this is the opposite of trouble. Money is pouring into U.S. stocks and long-term bonds and the dollar is stronger than ever. What is needed now are more rate cuts.

Now it is possible that stock prices have gotten too high too fast. A correction right now might be the best thing. There are no real signs of an actual recession coming. The media would love it though, as it might hurt Trump.

 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Recessions are a part of every economic cycle and it's not the end of the world.  That said it's always been used against whoever is in the white house and for as much as Trump has touted the stock market success during his term he deserves to have it thrown back in his face but I'm sure he'll just blame the fed.  The real test is when a recession hits how leveraged are regular folks which impacts their ability to weather it and what weapons does the fed have because if rates are already too low you can only cut so much.  I realize a lot of the rest of the world has been reacting by lowering rates and the US probably will too but it just seems like a recipe for more problems down the line if things really slow down.  

[Angel Oracle]

No more lowering the Fed rates for a year.   

And Trump, stop thinking you can get China to totally compromise this time.   Take what concessions you can get, and enough with this tariffs talk. 

Has Trump ever admitted he was wrong about something?   Talk about an ego? 

[Adam]

Recessions are an important part of State control. Gotta keep people reliant on the government 

[AngelsLakersFan]

5 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

We are overdue for a recession, currently the longest period between end of previous recession and now since the Great Depression?

This fact has absolutely nothing to do with why the market is down or why we could slide into a recession. 

[mrwicked]

On 6/26/2019 at 9:21 PM, NrM said:

Back up to 12k. It's been on fire lately.  Up 130% the last 3 months. If people were smart and dca'd, they would be up a lot right now.

And back down 20% to $10k.

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Have tariffs EVER truly worked?   Didn't Smoot-Hawley help to cause the Great Depression? 

Lol, the most AO comment possible for this topic.

You need to go on Jeopardy someday!

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

This fact has absolutely nothing to do with why the market is down or why we could slide into a recession. 

Nothing, other than the law of averages

[Tank]

14 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

We are overdue for a recession, currently the longest period between end of previous recession and now since the Great Depression?

are you sure? we just had a whopper of one in 2008.

the market often self-corrects, and maybe that's what we're due for. a recession is pretty damaging.

[fan_since79]

Markets are getting killed on new Chinese tariffs and Trump's order for U.S. companies to get out of China (not sure how he can do that), lower manufacturing report, Trump's new war with Fed Chairman Powell, and last but not least, Powell's weak speech at Jackson Hole. 

Investors are rushing  into bonds, and the 10-year Treasury yield is about to go under 1.5%, which is staggering to me.

 

[halomatt]

So is it time for me to refinance my home mortgage?   I'm at 4.5% for a 30-year.  I'm kinda a financial idiot, so use small words.  Thanks.

[Stradling]

17 minutes ago, halomatt said:

So is it time for me to refinance my home mortgage?   I'm at 4.5% for a 30-year.  I'm kinda a financial idiot, so use small words.  Thanks.

@Brandon

[Jay]

On 8/23/2019 at 11:40 AM, fan_since79 said:

Markets are getting killed on new Chinese tariffs and Trump's order for U.S. companies to get out of China (not sure how he can do that), lower manufacturing report, Trump's new war with Fed Chairman Powell, and last but not least, Powell's weak speech at Jackson Hole. 

Investors are rushing  into bonds, and the 10-year Treasury yield is about to go under 1.5%, which is staggering to me.

 

A lot of the market volatility is headline-driven and not driven by meaningful economic data.

[Lhalo]

12 hours ago, Jay said:

A lot of the market volatility is headline-driven and not driven by meaningful economic data.

Well when you have algos running the market that's what happens.