Around the Blogosphere

[OregonLAA]

I don't like the Weaver prediction, but I do like the Kendrick one. I'd love Green to take over if we need another starter

[Angelsjunky]

Down to a #4-5 in 2014 seems like a "sudden jolt." I mean, there is some room for optimism. His walk rate has been exactly the same for the last four seasons and his strikeout rate was been stable for the last two. For the last two years he was more of a #2-3 starter and I don't see why he can't continue as such for at least another year or two.

 

That said, his fastball velocity has fallen in each of the last three years, with both 2012 (87.8) and 2013 (86.5) being well below his career average (88.9). That's certainly worrisome, especially if the trend continues. Not many pitchers survive in the majors, let alone excel, without a high-80s fastball.

 

What I don't understand is why velocity can't be improved late in one's career. Overall fitness is harder to maintain the older we get, but a 35-year old can be just as strong as a 25-year old. It takes more work, and I know delivery is more than just strength, but there's got to be some reason for the drop. Why can't it be fixed, if only slightly?

[Llewyn Davis]

Weaver and Lincecum each have incredible changeups. But we've seen Lincecum decline rapidly the last 2 years because of him also losing velocity. The difference between them is Weaver has impeccable command, and Lincecum does not, so he's not getting away with his mistake pitches anymore. Weaver doesn't make nearly as many mistake pitches and he gets ahead in the count more often than not. He's also much better from the stretch than Lincecum, so he strands more baserunners.

 

I think Weaver will still be the ace of our staff, but he'd probably be a #2 on a lot of other staffs. I don't see him declining into #4-5 territory  I think he's the type of pitcher who ages well, even with the drop in velo. The fact that he averaged 86.5 mph in 2013 and was still as effective as he was shows you that he flat out knows how to pitch. If he starts averaging 84-85 mph, then he might be in some trouble.

 

The writing is on the wall that his best years are behind him, but that doesn't mean he's finished. Not by a long shot.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Llewyn Davis

[Second Base]

From what I understand it has to do with quick twitch muscles and elasticity of ligaments.  When we're young our muscles are more primed for the sudden burst of energy that is necessary to power the ball to home plate.  The older we get (up to a certain point of course) the stronger we become, but this strength is more of a maintenance strength, like enduring physical pain and lifting heavy objects for longer periods.  It isn't the burst of energy type of strength as much as it is the enduring sort.  As for the ligaments, the longer we continue to stretch them, the less likely they are of tearing but at the same rate, the less torque they provide, which helps create power.

 

Weaver in particular has extraordinarily flexible limbs.  When you watch the action in his delivery in slow motion, there's more bending and twisting than I think any pitcher I've seen.  I'm not worried about his flexibility so much, because just by looking at him, he seems like the rubber band type.  I'm more worried that he's going to reach back and just not feel the strength and torque any more and that we'll continue to see a general decline in velocity.  

 

Weaver does have very long limbs though, which helps create leverage, so I think it's possible (though not probable) that he's already lost all of the velocity he's going to lose in his pitching career and that 86-87 mph is as slow as he's going to get. 

[Docwaukee]

good stuff scotty. 

 

I hope your #1 doesn't come true because I think the only way howie gets traded is if the Halos are out of it by mid season. 

 

I think 2 and 3 have a very good chance.  The one reason #2 won't is because I think Green might breakout and take over the DH spot and maybe even play some 1b.  Or has an outside chance of moving in for Freese who I think might struggle. 

 

I agree with AJ that Weaver dropping to a 4/5 would be a bit weird.  I think his velo drop has plateaued for at least 2 years.  He might drop a bit more, but I think he will still have a mid 3's era at least. 

 

Don't think there is going to be anything overtly drastic with the pen.  In fact, I am predicting that they end up upper third in the league in production this year.  The improved depth gives them a chance to rotate a few guys in and move a few others but more in piecemeal.  I think two of Salas, Jep and Kohn will stick to start the season along with Burnett, Smith, DDLR, Frieri and one more lefty.  Assuming Burnett is healthy of course.  I think Maronde will be there by mid year.  I think Alvarez will get a late call but will be so good they'll keep him up for a playoff run. 

[Brent Maguire]

I don't think Weaver is going to be a 4/5 starter this quickly. I think he has one or two #2 type starter seasons left in him before he starts to decline.

If Howie is traded, that tells me the team is out of the race. In that case, I hope Howie isn't traded. It would be best to move him next offseason and let Lindsey/Green battle for the job in 2015.

[Angelsjunky]

Great explanation, Scotty - that totally makes sense - although it did what i feared it would do: explain how velocity drop is not something that can be recovered.

[Diaz15]

Good stuff Scotty. Interesting piece. I hope Weaver can keep it together for a couple more years. 

[nando714]

Trade Howie while his stock is still decent with potential to be high by july. Get some kind of pitching and Kendrick's salary is reasonable for a club to take on.

I like that prediction.

Weaver I think his velocity dipped bc of the elbow injury. I really don't think he will top out at 86 for his fb avg. People seem to forget that injury happened early in the season and it does take some time to get where you need to be after an injury.

CJ Wilson is the key for this season. We need 2013 Wilson to be here. If 2012 Wilson is here its gonna be a long year. It might be another long season regardless.

[stormngt]

Whose job does Borestein take?  Trout?  Hamilton????Calhoun????

I highly doubt they bring him up to be a 4th outfielder.

[Llewyn Davis]

Whose job does Borestein take?  Trout?  Hamilton????Calhoun????

I highly doubt they bring him up to be a 4th outfielder.

 

Old man Ibanez, and he'll spell the corner outfielders whenever Scioscia wants to give them rest or have them DH. He could even spell a little Pujols at first base. Basically Trumbo's former role with the team.

 

Not only do I think he's better than Cron, but he also gives you a lot more options in terms of where you can play him on the field. Cron may actually be too much of a defensive liability to even play first base. Same goes for Ibanez.

 

Hamilton and Pujols aren't aging well, and we're stuck with them for awhile yet. As they get older, Borenstein would play in the field more and more.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Llewyn Davis

[Angel Oracle]

Freese will go for .265/.315/.440/.755, a lot better than Callaspo ever did here.   But his defense will still struggle some.

Garrett Richards will be the #3 starter, and in some ways Weaver's equal, and have a high 3.00s ERA.

Weaver will find a way to get his velocity slightly back up, to say sitting at 85-87 and touching 88-89 occasionally, and win some 16 games with a mid 3.00s ERA.

Santiago will emerge as a solid #4 guy with a high 3.00s ERA.

Skaggs will end up pitching some 150 innings at the MLB level as a #5 starter, with a mid 4.00s ERA.

 

Edited March 4, 2014 by Angel Oracle

[Hubs]

I'm with you on one of the five and that's Calhoun. 3 WAR is not out of the question. I have him hitting to a higher average than you predicted, but less power.

 

Calhoun's ceiling is perhaps .300/.400/.500, though I don't expect that this year. That's All-Star Quality, but he's done it in the minors consistently. He doesn't strikeout, he does need to learn to walk more if he's the leadoff guy. 

[Docwaukee]

Freese will go for .265/.315/.440/.755, a lot better than Callaspo ever did here.   But his defense will still struggle some.

Garrett Richards will be the #3 starter, and in some ways Weaver's equal, and have a high 3.00s ERA.

Weaver will find a way to get his velocity slightly back up, to say sitting at 85-87 and touching 88-89 occasionally, and win some 16 games with a mid 3.00s ERA.

Santiago will emerge as a solid #4 guy with a high 3.00s ERA.

Skaggs will end up pitching some 150 innings at the MLB level as a #5 starter, with a mid 4.00s ERA.

so you want him to throw slower than last year?  His FB velo avg was 86.8 and he topped out at 91.  

 

his k rate actually went up last year.  Granted, I don't want to see him drop any more than he has, but he's fine where he's at right now.  

[Angel Oracle]

I guess I did confuse the average with where Weaver was topping out by late season.

[Second Base]

Freese will go for .265/.315/.440/.755, a lot better than Callaspo ever did here.   But his defense will still struggle some.

Garrett Richards will be the #3 starter, and in some ways Weaver's equal, and have a high 3.00s ERA.

Weaver will find a way to get his velocity slightly back up, to say sitting at 85-87 and touching 88-89 occasionally, and win some 16 games with a mid 3.00s ERA.

Santiago will emerge as a solid #4 guy with a high 3.00s ERA.

Skaggs will end up pitching some 150 innings at the MLB level as a #5 starter, with a mid 4.00s ERA.

 

Freese's OBP better be a hell of a lot higher than that.  Otherwise the Angels would've been better off keeping Peter and putting Lucho at 3B.

[Brent Maguire]

Freese had a .340 OBP in a bad offensive year for him. I think he's a good bet to have a .350 OBP or somewhere in that range. 

 

I have to admit that I'm really nervous about him defensively. It's been a short sample but he hasn't looked very mobile at 3rd. 

[stormngt]

Old man Ibanez, and he'll spell the corner outfielders whenever Scioscia wants to give them rest or have them DH. He could even spell a little Pujols at first base. Basically Trumbo's former role with the team.

 

Not only do I think he's better than Cron, but he also gives you a lot more options in terms of where you can play him on the field. Cron may actually be too much of a defensive liability to even play first base. Same goes for Ibanez.

 

Hamilton and Pujols aren't aging well, and we're stuck with them for awhile yet. As they get older, Borenstein would play in the field more and more.

 

Is he really that good of a hitter right now to be a full time DH?

[Llewyn Davis]

I think so. But most Angels fans seem to like Cron more, for whatever reason. However, it looks like Borenstein pulled a Hamilton and strained his calf today in a B game. Here's to a swift recovery! 

Edited March 5, 2014 by Llewyn Davis

[Second Base]

Is he really that good of a hitter right now to be a full time DH?

 

No, not yet.  Borenstein may grow into the role, but for right now he needs at least a year or two before he's MLB ready.  I don't see his bat being enough to break through the possibilities the Angels have in the OF and DH as a starter and defensively, he isn't better than any options in the OF.  I still think he's going to be a major leaguer and will serve his purpose as a late inning power bat that isn't useless on defense.  But when I've watched him, I just don't see the gaudy Cal League numbers and ridiculous splits transferring to the high minors or majors.  

 

What I do like about him in his plate discipline and power to RF.  If nothing else, those can carry you to the majors.  Look at Carlos Pena right now.  Of course he's a good defensive 1B but I don't think anyone's paying him for that. 

[Docwaukee]

I think so. But most Angels fans seem to like Cron more, for whatever reason. However, it looks like Borenstein pulled a Hamilton and strained his calf today in a B game. Here's to a swift recovery! 

that's not true.  There is a vocal minority Cron fan club (you know who you are).  Borenstein's performance last year was so good that most aren't ready to buy in just yet.  Been there done that with other guys.  If he performs well in AA, you will not only see a big AW bandwagon, but probably a national one as well. 

 

It's also not to say that we don't like Cron at all, it's just that many of us aren't convinced of him having a sustainable major league career with his poor D, and lack of plate discipline.  I have always felt he's an all or nothing guy.  He's either going to be a very good major leaguer or completely flame out. 

[Second Base]

I feel like Cron is an extremely limited player as you indicate Doc.  The defense is poor, he's got a good arm but it's wasted at 1B, lacks the mobility for OF and his OBP isn't where it needs to be (yet).  The only way Cron's going to be a good major league is if he hits the long ball and thankfully in his case he certainly can.  But there doesn't need to be some adjustments made in his approach.  He's a very good contact hitter, one of the best in the system, but he's sacrificing power by swinging and making contact with pitches that he just can't do a ton with.  

 

He'll need to learn to become more selective and only swing at the pitches he can do damage with.  I'm confident that he will and eventually turn into a decent enough DH bat (.270 30 DB 25 HR) that can pitch in at 1B when Albert needs a rest. 

 

You hit the nail on the head with Borenstein.  Right now I'm in the phase of saying "show me that again".  What he did in the Cal League was unbelievable, and by unbelievable I mean I don't think he can do that in a non-power environment against decent pitching.  But if he does you'll see me hop on that bandwagon. 

[Angelsjunky]

Borenstein doesn't need to repeat 2013's numbers to inspire a bandwagon. How about 290/.900? In AA that would make him a legit prospect. Even .280/.850 would be pretty nice.

[Chuck]

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[Second Base]

Newest article form MWAH suggesting the Angels rotation depth isn't actually a problem.  Do you agree?

 

http://monkeywithahalo.com/uncategorized/la-angels-have-rotation-depth.html