Sick Bullpen?

[arch stanton]

Dear Joe Thatcher,

 

After careful consideration I believe it's past time for you to acquaint a few plate-diving lefty hitters with the concept of "chin music". If you can keep them honest and off your breaking ball it's entirely possible that we do no allow another run past the 6th inning this season.

 

Sincerely, Arch 

[Guest]

Not sure how WAR works for pitchers, much less relievers, but Frieri gave up 22 runs in 31 innings with us. Street has given up 4 runs in 33 innings so far. Frieri's WAR with us was -.5. Street's WAR so far has been .5. That is a 1 game difference from Frieri at his worst to Street at his best. Street won't keep pitching the way he has been and he's not replacing Frieri, he's replacing Rasmus. By WAR standards he'll win us less than a game than what we have now

 

WAR for pitchers is garbage. And I don't think WAR works for relievers, period.

 

In 2012 Jered Weaver had the same WAR as Joe Blanton.

 

WAR for pitchers is based on FIP which completely ignores outcomes on balls in play. It also attempts to be situation independent and ignore leverage which is OK for evaluating skill and predicting future performance of every day position players but totally inappropriate for pitchers, especially relievers.

 

A much better stat to use for relievers is Win Probability Added. 

 

Among pitchers with over 20IP this year, Street is #1 at 2.96 WPA. Frieri is #199 out of 204 with -1.53 WPA. 4 more wins season to date had we been using Street instead of Frieri sounds about right.

Edited July 21, 2014 by ScottLux

[rageous]

Dear Joe Thatcher,

 

After careful consideration I believe it's past time for you to acquaint a few plate-diving lefty hitters with the concept of "chin music". If you can keep them honest and off your breaking ball it's entirely possible that we do no allow another run past the 6th inning this season.

 

Sincerely, Arch 

Yup it seems like Thatcher throws everything to the outside.

He needs to keep the batters honest by going inside a bit more.

[instant karma]

I agree with Chuck.  Kudo's to Dipoto for his moves and we have still Cam B waiting in the wings which will only make our bullpen stronger in the future.  I'd say Butcher, who gets his share of grief on this site, is due some credit as well.  

 

6 of the 8 regularly contributing members of our 2014 bullpen were not on our 2013 roster.  It's a pretty impressive job by the front office.

 

2013 Bullpen                                 2014 Bullpen  (blue indicates new additions in 2014)

 

Blanton                                         Street

De la Rosa                                   Smith

Frieri                                             Grilli

Jepsen                                         Jepsen

Kohn                                             Morin

Lowe                                            Rasmus

Williams                                        Salas

Downs                                          Thatcher

[Carlota Gonzalez]

I definitely would not call our rotation top 5.  Not even sure it is top 5 in the AL.

Our team ERA is 3.78, 6th in AL and 15th in all of baseball. We are .02 of a point from 3rd in AL. 

[Rescue&Restore]

I think people have a tendency to ignore the intangibles if you become stat-obsessed. Huston is a fantastic clubhouse presence to have, and knowing you have a closer that is at the top of his game eases the mind of everyone in the clubhouse and boosts teams overall confidence and morale. It seems like all this angels team needed to push it from good to great was someone they could place full confidence in to shut down the game. It showed yesterday, even if they didn't use him, that having solid points in every aspect of your team is what counts to create a team that really believes it can win. All questions are answered, this team is set up for success, and now they can move forward and not look back.

[Angel Oracle]

DDLR is Toast! Sven rode that pony to the Glue factory last year.

I don't know if it's permanent, but agreed that he isn't going to contribute this season.

Take the off-season to determine what needs to be fixed.

[ettin]

In 2012 Jered Weaver had the same WAR as Joe Blanton.

WAR for pitchers is based on FIP which completely ignores outcomes on balls in play. It also attempts to be situation independent and ignore leverage which is OK for evaluating skill and predicting future performance of every day position players but totally inappropriate for pitchers, especially relievers.

A much better stat to use for relievers is Win Probability Added.

Among pitchers with over 20IP this year, Street is #1 at 2.96 WPA. Frieri is #199 out of 204 with -1.53 WPA. 4 more wins season to date had we been using Street instead of Frieri sounds about right.[/size]

Scott we need to be careful here because the Padres were not a high scoring team and Street likely came in as a closer or 8th inning guy in tight games to help close out the side which would likley make his WPA higher due to the situational context.

I'm not saying it doesn't tell a story, it does: Street in important situations helped his team and I expect him to do it here too. WPA isn't a predictive stat, however so we should just be careful in how it is presented and used.

[SigBaby]

"The Padres received a very nice package for closer Huston Street, who has a very favorable contract for a ninth-inning man. But while Benoit is drawing serious interest, the Padres would be hard-pressed to match that haul for Benoit, who is seen as more of a set-up man (and closer insurance) by most."- Jon Heyman.

 

If true, that's complete BS. Benoit is just as good as Street and again, we didn't need a shutdown closer. If anything Benoit would've been a better fit for us with Smith's success in the ninth. God the closer label is ridiculously overrated. I wonder if we could've gotten Kennedy and Benoit for the same package