Let's be honest, folks

[zenmaster]

Wait, did someone just say punting has no benefit in football and needs to be forgotten?

[stormngt]

Sosh asked Cowgill to bunt knowing the ball will hit him the face breaking his nose. Thus ending the platoon with Calhoun

Yes, because he asked Cowgil to bunt and in return he got his nose and thumb broken.

[fan_since79]

Baseball 101- Score and score some more........

 

But don't give away outs in the 8th inning when you're up by 3 runs with a runner in scoring position.

[Vladfan]

But don't give away outs in the 8th inning when you're up by 3 runs with a runner in scoring position.

You have a better chance to score if the runner is on 3rd....not second. Thus is why it is called a sacrifice. We needed runs at that point.

[nate]

Statistics show you are more likely to score the run if you don't give up an out.

[tdawg87]

There's really nothing to bitch about.

 

Oh, AJ. So young. So naive.

[Stradling]

Thread is a success!

You're welcome!

[AngelsLakersFan]

Statistics show you are more likely to score the run if you don't give up an out.

I'm going to correct you without looking up the answer.

 

You are something like 2% more likely to score with the runner moved over to third, than let swing away with him at second.

 

You really kill your total run expectancy for the inning though.

[fan_since79]

You have a better chance to score if the runner is on 3rd....not second. Thus is why it is called a sacrifice. We needed runs at that point.

 

We were up by three in the 8th inning with a bullpen that's been nothing short of lock-down over the past week or two.

 

We didn't "need" runs.

[Vladfan]

You ALWAYS need more runs in baseball unless you have a 10 run or greater lead. Anything can happen.

[Stradling]

We were up by three in the 8th inning with a bullpen that's been nothing short of lock-down over the past week or two.

We didn't "need" runs.

You really believe this? We don't need more runs, until we actually need more runs. Like when our bullpen implodes, which can happen. Hell, you know it can happen because in every single game day thread you personally expect it to happen.

[Stradling]

And not bunting guarantees four? Then sign me up for four.

[Docwaukee]

run expectancy charts tell us the following:

 

with 0 out and a runner on 2b, the average is scoring 1.170 runs. 

with 1 out and a runner on 3b, the average is .989 runs

 

with a runner on 2b and no outs, there is a 63.7% chance that at least one run will score.

with a runner on 3b and one out, there is a 67.4% chance that at least one run will score. 

this doesn't take into account the actual situation.  Who is coming up, the speed you have on the bases etc. 

 

Scoring one run there takes you out of your conventional save situation.  Smith had pitched two days in a row and in 4 of the last 6 days.  Maybe he was tired. 

 

Maybe there are things we just didn't know about as to why he did it that would make a little more sense that just the notion that MS is generally intent on bucking the use of advanced stats.  Maybe there weren't and he didn't have a reason that extends beyond him just wanting to plate the one run.  It seems like an odd enough move that there wouldn't have been a reason for it. 

[Vladfan]

You don't think a base hit to right field can move the runner to 3rd?

I think that it is easier to get a bunt down than get a base hit.

[Vladfan]

So you agree that scoring 4 runs that inning would be better than 1? Because bunting means you're going for 1.

I think Stradling summed it up for you on this one.

[Blarg]

I think that it is easier to get a bunt down than get a base hit.

 

A shit ton easier to get a bunt down than get two yards on a 4th down play inside your 30 yard line. The risk reward is not there for not punting since the chance the other team score being spotted in the red zone is greater than starting them inside their 30 yard line. Greater than a man on second and no outs.

Edited July 15, 2014 by Eric Notti

[Sully151]

I think that it is easier to get a bunt down than get a base hit.

Off a bat- snot crazy wild pitcher?

[stevestevens]

I miss AO, he would give us something to bitch about.

He does. People were bitching about lifting the self ban last week and members will continue to do it whenever he feels the need to pop in again.

[Adam]

The Angels have a good month and we're extending GMs and forgetting how fickle we are. nice

[red321]

You can always tell how well the Angels are playing by looking at what people are complaining about.

 

Firing Scioscia, Ibanez release, Pujols struggles, Freese, Kendrick, bogeyman of the week = Angels playing bad or average

 

Bunting with a 3 run lead late in the game trying to get one more insurance run = Angels with 2nd best record in baseball

[Adam]

A skid of 3-7 or 2-8 is absolutely unavoidable. I would be shocked if every team didn't have at least one 10 game stretch like this in the second half. Yet, this place will go bonkers when it happens. 

[Vladfan]

I believe two yards, even inside your 30, is a must go-for-it. There is a complete breakdown of when to punt and when to go for it statistically, and the football world punts FAR, FAR more often than they should. Because if you think about it, picking up a 4th down is like a turnover, and you're keeping the other team's D on the field go get tired. Does that mean that you will never get stopped and have the other team pick up an easier FG or TD? No, but over the course of a game/season you will be more successful by punting less.

I would think that baseball has shown us over the last 15 years that statistics are more reliable than old-school "wisdom" and cliched phrases. If anything, if somethings always been done a certain way, it is more than likely the wrong way. Because it was originally done that way when there was a complete lack of information. And in this case, punting has been around since before the forward pass was a part of the game and teams would score ~ 9 points.

I guess stats should dictate everything they do on the field?

Bunting has been a part of baseball for 100+ years because it WORKS!!!

[fan_since79]

I guess stats should dictate everything they do on the field?

Bunting has been a part of baseball for 100+ years because it WORKS!!!

 

Except when it doesn't.

 

Edited July 15, 2014 by fan_since79

[Hollyw00d]

I guess stats should dictate everything they do on the field?

Bunting has been a part of baseball for 100+ years because it WORKS!!!

Giving up an out for a single base is almost never a good idea

[Guest]

The Angels have a good month and we're extending GMs and forgetting how fickle we are. nice

Except when it doesn't.

 

 

Let's give Dipoto a 10 year extension