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Trout goes 4-5 and his fWAR goes down


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This is why I question WAR. Trout went 4-5 last night but his fWAR actually went down from 5.4 to 5.3. If you checked the live updates last night it went up to 5.7, but since then Def has been re-calculated and evidently Trout's defense has been poor the last week and continues to go down - he now has negative value, at -1.8.

 

According to fWAR, Trout is just barely above average as a baserunner and actually slightly below average defensively this year, which is the main reason he's not far ahead of everyone in fWAR.

 

What gives? Is Trout's defense continuing to decline (from 13.0 in 2012 to 3.0 in 2013 to -1.8 in 2014) or is fWAR FOS?

 

Anyhow, getting that third 10 fWAR season in a row is looking less and less likely.

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He's been solid defensively at least to me. If I were to be really critical I'd say he occasionally dives for balls he could catch on the run, but he's taking better routes than he use too. If anything this would be more about defensive positioning maybe? He isn't a bad center-fielder he just isn't.

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He's been solid defensively at least to me. If I were to be really critical I'd say he occasionally dives for balls he could catch on the run, but he's taking better routes than he use too. If anything this would be more about defensive positioning maybe? He isn't a bad center-fielder he just isn't.

 

It didn't say he was a bad CF. Right now he is about average. And personally I think he is a little better than that, but we're looking at a half season of numbers. It will even out.

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He's been solid defensively at least to me. If I were to be really critical I'd say he occasionally dives for balls he could catch on the run, but he's taking better routes than he use too. If anything this would be more about defensive positioning maybe? He isn't a bad center-fielder he just isn't.

 

He missed a couple throws last week, I am sure that is where it came from.

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I guess I look at it like this. They say he's average defensively, name the guys that are better defensively. Mcutchen, Gomez, Maybin, possibly Martin or Eaton. I'm just not sure he's not still above average.

Mccutchen is actually far worse than Trout in dWAR this year. Here's the list of CF's with more than 250 plate appearances sorted by dWAR:

 

#

Name

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=250&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

Edited by ScottLux
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As you mentioned, his defense was bad this week and it's a weekly calculation. Also I think he got thrown out on the bases at least twice this week. Plus other than today he has been swinging the bat poorly this week.

So, hypothetically, if it's a

hit-and-run play and the batter misses the sign the baserunner's fWAR goes down?

What if the manager puts on a ROC play and the runner is thrown out at home?

Edited by Lou
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So, hypothetically, if it's a

hit-and-run play and the batter misses the sign the baserunner's fWAR goes down?

What if the manager puts on a ROC play and the runner is thrown out at home?

It's definitely unfair that Trout's out at the plate a couple days ago when Disarcina waved him in like a total m0ron counted against him as much as Pujols running a stop sign on his own. Or counting an out on a botched hit and run the same as an out on a straight steal initiated by the player. Those should be charged against the coaches WAR. 

 

Also, another problem with defensive WAR is that it massively overvalues home run saving catches (IMO). Almost all of Trout's MLB leading dWAR in 2012 was from 4 home run saving catches. In 2013 he actually turned two doubles into home runs by accidentally pushing them over the wall attempting to catch him. Those were weight so heavily that that alone changed him from the best defensive WAR in 2012 to the very worst in baseball in 2013. .

 

While I agree that's potentially a big deal, a few home runs (most of which were not in high leverage situations) swinging Trout from very best to very worst is ridiculous.

Edited by ScottLux
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So, hypothetically, if it's a

hit-and-run play and the batter misses the sign the baserunner's fWAR goes down?

What if the manager puts on a ROC play and the runner is thrown out at home?

 

 

I'd assume the most times a guy us thrown out stealing or trying to take the extra base it's because the manager called for a SB or a case coach sends him. Sure there are botched hit and runs. But the good players can sometimes overcome that. WAR isn't a perfect stat but no one complains about BA when a guy strikes out on a pitch he was swinging at he normally wouldn't have because the manager called for a hit and run. 

 

No one is arguing Trout is a bad player and WAR generally favors players like Trout who do little things that go unseen like going first to third. But he didn't have a good week. It well happen. He had a great game yesterday, but an otherwise terrible week.

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