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Thanks for bunting, Dusty


yk9001

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aul safe at first on 2nd baseman Kendrick fielding error.   Choo singled to right, Paul to second.   Phillips sacrificed to pitcher, Paul to third, Choo to second.   Ball, Ball, Ball, Votto walked. Chris Heisey  struck out swinging. Jay Bruce  struck out swinging. End of Inning (0 Runs, 1 Hit, 1 Error)

 

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All Heisey had to do was hit the ball in the air and Dusty would look like a genious.  Wannabe managers look great with hindsight.

 

aul safe at first on 2nd baseman Kendrick fielding error.   Choo singled to right, Paul to second.   Phillips sacrificed to pitcher, Paul to third, Choo to second.   Ball, Ball, Ball, Votto walked. Chris Heisey  struck out swinging. Jay Bruce  struck out swinging. End of Inning (0 Runs, 1 Hit, 1 Error)

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It's not just hindsight. It was a late game situation with a man in scoring position and no outs. Obviously 2 runs would have been nice but with their pen 1 run had a great chance of standing up. Bunting reduces your chances of scoring 1 run in that situation by about 1/3 as you go from having 3 ABs with a runner in scoring position to 2 ABs with a runner in scoring position.

All Heisey had to do was hit the ball in the air and Dusty would look like a genious.  Wannabe managers look great with hindsight.

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All Heisey had to do was hit the ball in the air and Dusty would look like a genious.  Wannabe managers look great with hindsight.

 

 

Bunting sucks.  That isn't hindsight.

 

Taking the bat out of two of your best hitters hands is something the opposing team will take every time.

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It's not just hindsight. It was a late game situation with a man in scoring position and no outs. Obviously 2 runs would have been nice but with their pen 1 run had a great chance of standing up. Bunting reduces your chances of scoring 1 run in that situation by about 1/3 as you go from having 3 ABs with a runner in scoring position to 2 ABs with a runner in scoring position.

 

Not sure I agree with your math on that.  It's easier to score from third than second.  Run expectancy charts give us this: 

 

ex. - first and second with no out, your run expectancy is about 1.5 for that inning while it drops to about 1.4 with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out but then goes up to almost 1.6 with bases loaded and one out.  So you are actually likely to score more runs with the situation that Dusty created

 

However, this doesn't indicate the actual likelihood of scoring 1 run but how many runs you are likely to score.  Also, it does take the bat out of the hands of your best hitter with a much lesser hitter behind him. 

 

If this were to happen with the halos (which I have no doubt it will), Trout and bourjos on first and second, aybar bunts them over walk pujols and bring in a lefty to face hamilton.  Yet if you score just one run, you have a very good chance of winning the game. 

 

Tough call.

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