Rangers-Andrus nearing 8 year/$120 million extension

[bloodbrother]

That Posey deal is so good. Hoping the Halos can lock up Trout for something similar within the next year

[sneaky_flute]

Those contracts are in fact complete overpays.   They were also free agents.

 

I'd love to hear your argument for why Andrus is worth 75% (6,5 M), more per year than Erick Aybar.   I'm not interested in your rampant homerism, I'd like to see what you base it on other than the name on the front of the uniform.  They have been essentially the same player the last two years.  

 

Buster Posey plays a significantly more demanding position.  He is likewise a plus defender, and has amassed a higher career WAR total in almost 300 fewer games.  He just signed a contract for 9 years and 167 mil, a per year average of 18.5 Mil...   Posey has won the ROY, an MVP and lead the NL in OPS+, WAR, and several other saber-metric categories and yet he's only making 3.5 mil more than Andrus....  

 

Andrus 6.5MIl > Aybar...  

Posey 3,5MIl > Andrus?

 

Go ahead -- tell me how Andrus deal isn't an overpay.

posey and aybar agreed to extensions instead of testing free agency and possibly getting more money. can you make some more lousy arguments?

[Inside Pitch]

@keithlaw: Over the last two years, Andrus is 3rd among MLB shortstops in each version of WAR. The market will pay that handsomely.

 

So Keith Law is okay with paying what WAR dictates despite it's defensive shortcomings -- that's great.    Have you ever looked at what Keith had to say when Wells signed his contract?  Or how about what Ricciardi had to say about him once he left?   How about Keith Law's opinions of David Price before Price made him look like a moron?

 

Keith Law has found it easier to be a media mouthpiece and critic than he did an actual baseball exec.  His time in Toronto and influence on player acquisition and contract negotiation left a lot to be desired.

[Inside Pitch]

posey and aybar agreed to an extension instead of getting substantially more money as free agents. can you make some more lousy arguments?

 

 

You can't possibly be this dense.   Can you?   How is Andrus' situation different?  Are you capable of even mounting a "lousy argument?"

You're either trolling or the human equivalent of iridium.  

[sneaky_flute]

You can't possibly be this dense.   Can you?   How is Andrus' situation different?  Are you capable of even mounting a "lousy argument?"

You're either trolling or the human equivalent of iridium.  

someone like erick aybar signing for considerably less has no bearing on andrus' value.

[YouthofToday]

Wow, I'm with sneaky_flute on this one. Every analyst makes mistakes. Law is correct more than nearly anybody else, IMO. Yes, he gets too aggressive in his perspectives at times but his decision process is, by and large, excellent.

His new podcast is also a much listen to any evidence-based baseball fan.

Impressive ad hominem attack on Law. Law has admitted he learned a lot in Toronto. There was a reason the Astros highly recruited Law to play a major role in their organization a year ago... And the Astros are probably a top 5 organization decision and process wise right now.

I'm worried the Astros are extremely well suited to be a perpetual powerhouse starting in 2015.

[YouthofToday]

For the record... I've been a big supporter of the Aybar extension since it went down. Many here were rather disgruntled at the decision at the time.

My 3/26 post: "I'm just glad DiPoto gave him the extension when he did. I remember many in here were quiet upset that we overpaid for Aybar. We kept him on a nice under market contract during his prime years."

[Inside Pitch]

Wow, I'm with sneaky_flute on this one. Every analyst makes mistakes. Law is correct more than nearly anybody else, IMO. Yes, he gets too aggressive in his perspectives at times but his decision process is, by and large, excellent.

His new podcast is also a much listen to any evidence-based baseball fan.

Impressive ad hominem attack on Law. Law has admitted he learned a lot in Toronto. There was a reason the Astros highly recruited Law to play a major role in their organization a year ago... And the Astros are probably a top 5 organization decision and process wise right now.

I'm worried the Astros are extremely well suited to be a perpetual powerhouse starting in 2015.

 

 

You're a Law fan -- that's fine.  I think he's in love with his own opinions and has always shown certain biases...  To me he's Rob Neyer light with a larger focus on player evaluation. There is also no denying he found it easier to be a critic than an exec.  That's not an attack so much as it's a accurate depiction of his career to date.  I personally just happen to think that his online presence has given him more clout than others who went the way of print and the sort.  While you're free to sing his praises, he's wrong enough to where his opinion is just that -- an opinion.  I personally find that when he strays from the statistical analysis he trips over his own BS quite consistently.

 

The Astros are doing a really good job of mixing old school scouting with statistical evaluation, IMO his decision to not join their organization can only serve to benefit their organization.  

BTW, Keith Law can't hold a candle to guys like Tony Blengino.  Go back in time and check out any of John Benson's Future Stars books, if ever there was someone who was ahead of his time and adept at player evaluation and player analysis it was the Benson/Blengino duo, particularly their method of incorporating player age vs league and park effects.  

 

It's no small surprise that the Mariners farm system has turned around the way it has since Blengino bolted the Brewers for them.

[Docwaukee]

I guess it's not a totally unreasonable deal.  I guess the length of the deal which made the total value so high is what initially caused me to have sticker shock.  Even though I consider myself someone who likes to use advanced metrics (those available) to evaluate players, the old school in me sees a defense/speed guy who's a decent hitter and gets on base at a reasonable clip yet has essentially no power get a 100mil contract.  That seems odd at first, but going forward, I think we are going to see a lot more $$$ thrown at sneaky high WAR players and in particular those who defensive metrics like. 

[bloodbrother]

For the record... I've been a big supporter of the Aybar extension since it went down. Many here were rather disgruntled at the decision at the time.

My 3/26 post: "I'm just glad DiPoto gave him the extension when he did. I remember many in here were quiet upset that we overpaid for Aybar. We kept him on a nice under market contract during his prime years."

Really? I recall most being perfectly OK with both Howie and Aybar's extensions. The only reservations folks had on the Aybar extension was that they had Segura still in their farm and he was nearly big league ready

[Mark68]

Look, I get that Andrus plays well defensively. He has a good range. This, however, is tied to his speed. He's 24 now. At the end of the contract, he'll be 32. He has almost NO power, as evidenced by his career .352 slugging percentage. His highest OPS+, according to Baseball Reference, was last year's 91. Over his four full years, his triple slash line has been .274/.342/.352. He has averaged 22.5 doubles, 5.75 triples, and 3.5 home runs per year. He has averaged 30.75 stolen bases and 10.75 caught stealing per year. His total WAR is 12.8, or 3.2/year.

 

Let's assume he's heading into his prime between now and his age 28 season. We can probably expect an uptick in all of his counting stats to a reasonable peak of, say, 36 doubles, 10 triples, and 8 home runs, with maybe a 40/50 SB/CS year, but then a slight decline every year after that. So, let's just say increasing value over the next 4 years, averaging 3.6 WAR, then decreasing value over the last four, averaging 3.4 WAR. So that would be 3.5 WAR/year over the next 8 for a total of 28 WAR. That's approximately $4.3M/WAR.

 

Aybar was a part-time player for his first three years, with a total of 626 PA in that time, so we'll count that as a full year. Thus, over the equivalent of 5 years, he has averaged 6.4 HR, 25.8 2B, 6.6 3B, 19.6 SB, & 6.2 CS/year. His triple slash is .278/.320/.386, with three years of OPS+ over 100. His career WAR of 19.7 averages to about 3.9/year. Let's assume he's starting his decline now, in his age 29 year and for the remaining 3 years of his contract after this. We'll say a decline from his 5.1 WAR last year, and averaging around 4.5 WAR for the next 4 years including this one.

 

He's making $8M/year. If you include the first year of his contract, 2012, his total WAR during the contract would be about 23, or 4.6 per year. $1.7M/WAR.

 

Who is the better bargain?

[HaloMagic]

Texas didn't have the chance to sign Aybar to a contract. Also, Aybar has never had a 5 WAR season. His 2011 4.4 rWAR is his highest number. Aybar's career rWAR is 15.9. I think you added up Baseball-Reference's oWAR and dWAR numbers. That's not how it works. It's weird that you didn't do the same thing for Andrus.

Also, Andrus has average 4 WAR the last two seasons (his third and fourth, aged 23 and 24). If he has an uptick in stats his WAR wouldn't average 3.6. It would go up to around 4.5.

[Mark68]

Texas didn't have the chance to sign Aybar to a contract. Also, Aybar has never had a 5 WAR season. His 2011 4.4 rWAR is his highest number. Aybar's career rWAR is 15.9. I think you added up Baseball-Reference's oWAR and dWAR numbers. That's not how it works. It's weird that you didn't do the same thing for Andrus.

Also, Andrus has average 4 WAR the last two seasons (his third and fourth, aged 23 and 24). If he has an uptick in stats his WAR wouldn't average 3.6. It would go up to around 4.5.

My bad, I was looking at oWAR and dWAR for BOTH players.

 

Last two years, Aybar was 4.3 & 4.4, career WAR is 15.9 (3.18/year).

 

Andrus' career WAR is 12.8 (3.2/year), with 4.1 & 3.7 the last two years, respectively. So if he has an uptick for 4 years, he should average around 4.5, then down to about 4. Let's call it 35 over the life of the contract, or $3.43M/WAR.

 

Aybar had 4.4 in the first year of the current contract, in what should be his peak year. Slow decline from there should average around 3.9, so 20 for the life of the contract, or $4.0/WAR.

 

So it's close. Additional food for thought, though: Andrus' career OPS+ is 84 and SB% is 74%. Aybar's is 93 & 76%. That's probably worth $660,000/year.

[Bashbrothers]

....waiting....

You guys have to remember that Andrus is likely to continue to get a little bit better, he is still a few years away from his peak as well.  All-Star 24 year old Short-Stop with 4.0 fWAR production. 

[Hollyw00d]

There's a lot of things besides Elvis Andrus that you can spend 120 mil on. I think the rangers way overpaid for this guy. We are paying aybar nearly half as much per year and he is essentially the same player. This is jose Reyes money and he's overpaid too. Really didn't expect this from the rangers FO, I didn't think they would make this kind of deal

[Lou]

You guys have to remember that Andrus is likely to continue to get a little bit better, he is still a few years away from his peak as well.  All-Star 24 year old Short-Stop with 4.0 fWAR production. 

Yep, just like Howie.

[Bashbrothers]

There's a lot of things besides Elvis Andrus that you can spend 120 mil on. I think the rangers way overpaid for this guy. We are paying aybar nearly half as much per year and he is essentially the same player. This is jose Reyes money and he's overpaid too. Really didn't expect this from the rangers FO, I didn't think they would make this kind of deal

 

No because a 4 war player at free agency would likely cost 20 million dollars a year.  15 million a year is the perfect amount.

[HaloMagic]

Hamilton is a 4 WAR a year player and he just got $25MM per.

[Inside Pitch]

No because a 4 war player at free agency would likely cost 20 million dollars a year.  15 million a year is the perfect amount.

 

 

Really... Is that how it works now?   Whatever their WAR is then that's what they should be paid?   No doubt baseball took this to heart last year right?

 

Michael Borne was a 6.0 WAR player last year, somehow he managed to sign for 4 years and 48 million instead of the 30 million per year your theory would have us believe.  He's just a bad example right?

 

Adam LaRoche should have been worth 20 mil a year, and yet he signed for 24 mil over two years.

 

Jeff Keppinger was almost a 3 WAR player last year -- so he's making close to 15 mil per year right?  Nope, try 12 MIL over 3 years.  

 

Ryan Ludwick was a 2.5 WAR player last year -- instead of making 12.5 mil per, he's making 15 Mil over 2 years.  

 

Angel Pagan was a 4 WAR player last year, he signed for 4 years and 40 mil instead of 20 mil per.   What a moron.

 

Nick Swisher was nearly a 4 WAR player, somehow he managed to sign for 4 years and 56 million total instead of the nearly 80 Mil he should have.

 

I'm a fan of WAR, but I really do believe people are taking it to extremes -- it shouldn't be the final say in player payroll..  I tend to push the importance of run prevention compared to most people but, if we are now going to suddenly pay through the nose for defense then the MLB payroll structure is going to skyrocket then implode like we have never seen before.  

 

Defense gets underrated because it's more of a passive thing.  A good defender plays everyday and over the course of a season it's believed they impact their team in a very plus way -- the problem of course is that defensive metrics are still really sketchy.   Brendan Ryan has been close to a 3 WAR player twice in the last four years, are people really going to argue that he should be considered a ten million a year player?  That's exactly what his WAR would have us believe.  Ryan BTW is a career .244/.307/.327 hitter.

 

Alberto Callaspo is not a 15 million a year player, never has be, never will be but his WAR the last couple of years would have us believe that at 4.1 million per year he's being criminally underpaid.

 

If that's where we are heading then we may as well trade Trout now.

[Inside Pitch]

Hamilton is a 4 WAR a year player and he just got $25MM per.

 

 

Right or wrong, power has always been viewed as more valuable.   Maybe because for the most part the only way to defend against it is to put the player on base or have a Mike Trout.  If people are really going to use WAR as the basis for real world salaries then every team in MLB is getting a HUGE bargain.   The Astros are an 80 million dollar payroll based on ZIPs projections for WAR.

 

Ill say it again.  I don't think the Andrus deal is awful, but I do believe it's a bit of an overpay.  I don't think it's an overpay to where the Rangers should be mocked for it -- there are several rational arguments to be made for why it's a good deal and could end up a great deal.  

 

It's quite possible that I'm being stubborn in regards to what a team should play for plus defense, but I look at the Mariners failed experiment of loading up with plus defense at every position and i have a hard time committing to the idea.  Not saying that their failure a couple years back means the idea is completely without merit or shouldn't be attempted again.

[sneaky_flute]

teams weren't jumping at the chance to sign bourn and swisher because of the cba and the fact that they're getting up there in age. swisher still got 14 million a year which is quite fair. and aside from those two, the other players you listed have had only one decent season.

 

your argument is about as flimsy as your wiener

[shellback]

rangers front office is a BIG mess. andrus contract is an overpay. i look for the rangers to continue in thier state of confusion on the field and off for some time to come.

[sneaky_flute]

rangers front office is a BIG mess. andrus contract is an overpay. i look for the rangers to continue in thier state of confusion on the field and off for some time to come.

could a statement BE more moronic?

[shellback]

its Mr Moron to you, big boy.

[EnglishCop]

could a statement BE more moronic?

 

Could you please capitalize the first word of a sentence the next time you're going to be stupid enough to use caps lock for completely useless emphasis mid-sentence?

 

For example:

 

Your post couldn't contain a more useless POINT of emphasis.

 

Notice that even though I included a thoroughly meaningless attempt at emphasis via capitalization of "POINT," I still managed to start the sentence properly.

 

Have A GoOd DAY.