Albert Pujols Hitting Trend Lines

[Angelsjunky]

So I just spent wasted the last hour putting together some charts to get a sense of how Albert Pujols' decline compares to similar players. I came up with a list of 20 or so players who had similar excellence through age 30, and then looked specifically at age 29-34, which gives us a sense of Pujols decline from his peak to today. I then chose nine of those players that were particularly similar, both in position and era, and compiled their wRC+ over those years (for the uninitiated, wRC+ is Fangraphs' more sophisticated version of OPS+ - and is perhaps the best measurement of a player's hitting ability).

 

I then compared those players' wRC+ to their career average and created a chart. Here is what I came up with:

 

 

As you can see, Albert is significantly below the average - with a sharper downward trend than any player other than Jimmie Foxx. In fact, the difference is so striking that it made me curious what would happen if I compared Pujols age 29-34 to the same players two years older, age 31-36.

 

 

Pujols decline is still sharper than most, but it looks less of an outlier. I'm not jumping to conclusions here, but just showing some numbers - and they do paint a certain kind of picture.

 

More coming up.

[NrM]

Well done.

 

Dude is older than he says or he was juicing.

Edited June 12, 2014 by Poozy

[Homebrewer]

Nice! Thanks for the effort. It's appreciated.

[SoCALkid]

Thank you for taking the time to put together this 3rd grade chart

[Angelsjunky]

Part 2.

 

Aside from the age factor, one way in which Pujols stands out from the pack is that most of the other players have ups and downs, with almost all of them having at least one season at or above their career average past the age of 30. In fact, Albert is in his fourth year past the age of 30 and all four are below his career wRC+ of 160. Of the 17 comparable players, here is how many seasons they had with 5% below their career wrC+ or higher, age 31 and beyond:

 

8 Bonds

6 Ruth, Schmidt

5 Cobb, Williams, Musial

4 Ott, Speaker, Gehrig

3 Hornsby, Mantle, Rodriguez, Griffey, Yaz

1 Foxx, Mathews

0 Pujols

 

(I'm only including seasons in which they played half or more of the games, roughly speaking)

 

Now Albert isn't done, but those are some pretty depressing findings. Furthermore, ALL of the other players had at least one career average or better season in the age 31-34 range. So Pujols has already exhibited worse decline than ANY of his comparables.

 

Assuming, of course, he's actually the age he says he is.

[joeywings]

Can we hire a private detective to find his real birth certificate ?

Then send it to Moreno so Moreno can have that contract voided in court ?

Wishing here....

[Homebrewer]

Assuming, of course, he's actually the age he says he is.

 

He isn't. It will come out someday, when someone decides to really dig into it, and doesn't get a cap, or a big payoff to shut him up, in the process.

Edited June 12, 2014 by Homebrewer

[Jason]

Yay more reasons to be sick of Pujols. Sure glad I didn't buy his jersey.

[ELEVEN]

Could lying about his age somehow void the contract?

Asking for a friend...

[Angelsjunky]

Part 3

 

So here's my conclusion.

 

Either Albert Pujols is undergoing arguably the worst decline of a truly great hitter in the history of the game--with the possible exception of Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews, and Ken Griffey Jr--or he is older than he says he is. It is worth noting that Mathews and Griffey are two of the worst comps on the list as they are significantly inferior hitters to Pujols.

 

Jimmie Foxx is a very close comp. Foxx's last great season was at age 31; he remained very good at age 32-33 and then collapsed at age 34, missing most of his age 35-36 seasons and then played decently at age 37 before retiring. According to his Wikipedia page, some attribute his decline at age 33 and beyond to alcoholism. 

[Ohtaniland]

Well done.

 

Dude is older than he says or he was juicing.

 

[Jason]

Part 3

 

So here's my conclusion.

 

Either Albert Pujols is undergoing arguably the worst decline of a truly great hitter in the history of the game--with the possible exception of Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews, and Ken Griffey Jr--or he is older than he says he is. It is worth noting that Mathews and Griffey are two of the worst comps on the list as they are significantly inferior hitters to Pujols.

 

Jimmie Foxx is a very close comp. Foxx's last great season was at age 31; he remained very good at age 32-33 and then collapsed at age 34, missing most of his age 35-36 seasons and then played decently at age 37 before retiring. According to his Wikipedia page, some attribute his decline at age 33 and beyond to alcoholism.

I'd say the Angels org is lucky if Pujols retires by age 37

[Jason]

Could lying about his age somehow void the contract?

Asking for a friend...

If his age is written in there I'm sure it would be if he signed a false document. Maybe there are legal types on this board that know.

[Angelsjunky]

The sad thing is if this continues, the best thing Albert could do for his team is to retire so those funds are freed up to better the team in other ways.

 

How sad is it to see a once great player - one of the best of the last few decades - fall so far and so quickly? Is there any hope that he salvages his career?

[AngelsLakersFan]

Honestly, even lying about his age does not explain this away. It'd still be just about the worst decline ever for a player of his caliber. 

[Angelsjunky]

Honestly, even lying about his age does not explain this away. It'd still be just about the worst decline ever for a player of his caliber. u

 

True - unless he's not just a couple years older, but three or four or even five. Regardless, his signing and contract has been an unmitigated disaster so far with no sign of redemption. I hope he turns it around, but now is the time to do it. Very few careers are turned around at age 35 or older.

[AngelsFaninGA]

He needs to get on the roids if he isn't already on them. If he is, he needs to triple or quadruple the dosage. 

[joeywings]

The sad thing is if this continues, the best thing Albert could do for his team is to retire so those funds are freed up to better the team in other ways.

 

How sad is it to see a once great player - one of the best of the last few decades - fall so far and so quickly? Is there any hope that he salvages his career?

I doubt it b/c his bat speed's gotta be much slower now .

Never mind that he's probably becoming far sighted . Or his hand to eye coordination is close to being shot .

[Homebrewer]

Really, the best we can hope for is he gets so embarrassed he quits.

Sad, but this is now the best case scenario and what every Halo fan should go to bed tonight praying for.

[Angelsjunky]

To be honest, my best guess is that he's actually three years older - which would make his current age 37. It just makes sense, given the numbers. Look at his career with a +3 age differential:

 

*His first season, when he hit .329/.403/.610, would be at age 24 - an age when a lot of great players fully come into their own; age 21-23 is often still a developmental period (unless your name is Mike Trout).

 

*He reached a peak level in 2003, when he would be age 26.

 

*His best years--2003, 2008 and 2009--would be age 26, 31, and 32.

 

*His last great year, 2010, would be at age 33 - the year that even most great players start showing decline.

 

If this +3 age differential is correct, then we have not only the rest of his age 37 season to enjoy, but age 38-44.

[Angelsjunky]

OK, this is interesting - from the Pujols Foundation page:

 

On their very first date at the Cheesecake Factory in Kansas City, where both lived, Albert made a confession. "He told me he had lied about his age," says Deidre. "He had told me he was 21, but he was really only 18. But, I told him I had a confession of my own."

 

Maybe Albert didn't initially lie about his age? That would verify my +3 age differential.

[AngelsLakersFan]

To be honest, my best guess is that he's actually three years older - which would make his current age 37. It just makes sense, given the numbers. Look at his career with a +3 age differential:

 

*His first season, when he hit .329/.403/.610, would be at age 24 - an age when a lot of great players fully come into their own; age 21-23 is often still a developmental period (unless your name is Mike Trout).

 

*He reached a peak level in 2003, when he would be age 26.

 

*His best years--2003, 2008 and 2009--would be age 26, 31, and 32.

 

*His last great year, 2010, would be at age 33 - the year that even most great players start showing decline.

 

If this +3 age differential is correct, then we have not only the rest of his age 37 season to enjoy, but age 38-44.

 

It's hard for me to see an all time great player only breaking out at age 24. 24 is the age when all star level players break out, not inner circle hall of famers.

[Angelsjunky]

Really, the best we can hope for is he gets so embarrassed he quits.

Sad, but this is now the best case scenario and what every Halo fan should go to bed tonight praying for.

 

There may be a chance this happens. Let's say he never rights the ship this year, finishing with a mediocre line of something like .260/.310/.490 and 30 HR. Then next year he continues in a similar fashion. Then the following year he drops further. Would he call it quits halfway through his contract? Maybe he and Arte could work out a deal. But I don't see him calling it quits for at least another couple seasons...he's got such pride (and ego) that he doesn't realize how bad he's become, and he'll continue to think that he can turn it around. But eventually even Pujols will realize his goose is cooked, and he did say that he'll call it quits if he can't contribute.

Edited June 12, 2014 by Angelsjunky

[AngelsLakersFan]

and he did say that he'll call it quits if he can't contribute.

 

That's just another example of the pride talking. Albert won't call it quits, that quote was simply his way of saying "there will never be a time when I am not contributing."

[Angelsjunky]

It's hard for me to see an all time great player only breaking out at age 24. 24 is the age when all star level players break out, not inner circle hall of famers.

 

True, but if I'm right then he moved to the US at age 19, played high school until age 21, was drafted at age 22 and tore through the minors in just one year, age 23.

 

So the only reason he didn't play earlier is because he was following the ruse of being 3 years younger.