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The Angels and luck


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interesting article from Jonah Keri today.  As I'm sure even he would tell you, all of this to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

http://grantland.com/features/the-30-week-8-phillies-royals-blue-jays-giants-cluster-luck/

 

"Essentially, the concept boils down to this: When a team’s batters cluster hits together to score more runs and a team’s pitchers spread hits apart to allow fewer runs, that’s cluster luck. Say a team tallies nine singles in one game. If all of those singles occur in the same inning, the team would likely score seven runs; if each single occurs in a different inning, however, it’d likely mean a shutout.

 

To gauge whether cluster luck might be affecting this year’s results, let’s turn to ThePowerRank.com, a site maintained by sports analyst and Grantland contributor Ed Feng. The Power Rank calculates cluster luck by using the Base Runs formula to compare actual runs scored and runs allowed to expected runs scored and runs allowed. Here’s a look at how all 30 teams ranked based on clustering through Monday’s games, from luckiest to unluckiest. The first figure in parentheses represents runs-scored luck, the second is runs-allowed luck; positive values indicate good fortune, while negative values point to poor luck.

 

26. Los Angeles Angels: -13.33 (6.43, -19.76)"

 

In other words, they've been a little lucky on offense, and very unlucky in runs allowed.  FWIW, Seattle has been the "luckiest" team so far, almost all of it due to the offensive side.

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The simpler way to look at this is to look at teams that have a big gap between their average and their RISP average. Over the long haul they should be about the same, so teams that have a gpa one way or the other are most likely getting unlucky.

Look at the Angels last year. Early in the season their average w RISP was much worse than overall. By the end they were similar.

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