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MLB First Year Player Draft: Jeff Hoffman


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So it was reported the other day that Jeff Hoffman, a consensus Top Five pick in the upcoming Rule IV Draft, will undergo Tommy John Surgery.

However it has been noted that he could still be picked up in the first round by a club willing to take the risk that the TMJ surgery will turn out okay.

If he were to fall to the Angels (and he might) do you think we should take the risk on him?

He posted a 2.94 ERA at East Carolina University and has a fastball that tops out around 98 mph with an excellent change up and two types of curve balls. He's only 21 years old right now.

Thoughts?

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Normally I would be fine with taking a risk on someone with this kind of upside, but since Tony Reagins used to be our GM and left the starting pitching minor league depth in shambles, I think we need to go with a safer pick. I usually like these gambles though, since TJ is usually successful these days

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My personal feeling is that we should probably pass but if he really is the best pick on the board when it is the Angels turn and we feel he will sign (perhaps for less than slot?) there is some potential upside.

We'd have to wait at least a year before we'd know if his surgery was successful and then probably wouldn't see him up until the 2016-2017 seasons.

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To show how far TJ surgery has come a decade later, Nick Adenhart was a mid teens round pick in 2004 by the Halos just as he was having TJ surgery done and after being considered a potential first round pick before the need for the surgery.

He was drafted out of HS though, vs. Hoffman coming out of college.

 

If somehow Hoffman is still available by round 3, I'd select him.    But he is likely off the board by either the sandwich picks round or maybe even the 2nd round.

Very few third rounders from college are MLB impact players within a year or two anyway.   Even Cron needed 2.5 seasons to get here, after being a 1st round pick.

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To show how far TJ surgery has come a decade later, Nick Adenhart was a mid teens round pick in 2004 by the Halos just as he was having TJ surgery done and after being considered a potential first round pick before the need for the surgery.

He was drafted out of HS though, vs. Hoffman coming out of college.

 

If somehow Hoffman is still available by round 3, I'd select him.    But he is likely off the board by either the sandwich picks round or maybe even the 2nd round.

Very few third rounders from college are MLB impact players within a year or two anyway.   Even Cron needed 2.5 seasons to get here, after being a 1st round pick.

 

Adenhart fell to the mid teens in part because he was a HS player and had a college commitment.  There were few teams willing to both take the risk on the injury AND buy him out of college.  The Angels were very aggressive then.   The days before slot money and penalties saw a lot more volatility with guys coming off injury.  Nowadays a team has a certain amount of cost certainty.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Even with the TJ surgery, Hoffman is likely to reach the majors before the Angel's first selection last year (Hunter Green).  And he would be the best Angel's pitching prospect since Weaver.  IMO, it's a no brainer--take him.

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To show how far TJ surgery has come a decade later, Nick Adenhart was a mid teens round pick in 2004 by the Halos just as he was having TJ surgery done and after being considered a potential first round pick before the need for the surgery.

He was drafted out of HS though, vs. Hoffman coming out of college.

 

If somehow Hoffman is still available by round 3, I'd select him.    But he is likely off the board by either the sandwich picks round or maybe even the 2nd round.

Very few third rounders from college are MLB impact players within a year or two anyway.   Even Cron needed 2.5 seasons to get here, after being a 1st round pick.

 

It wasn't just the TJ surgery, it was that teams figured since he was having the surgery, he was likely to honor his college commitment.

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