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Current AL WAR Leaders


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http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Needless to say, a lot of Angels doing quite well so far.   How about Collin freakin' Cowgill?  

 

1. Trout           2.4

6. Kendrick     1.2

7. Cowgill        1.2

9. Pujols          1.1

14. Aybar        1.0

 

 

 

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Kendrick is ranked 6th, so the rankings are obviously flawed.

WAR isn't weighted by situational leverage. Win Probability Added (WPA) is a more appropriate metric to use to judge Howie at the plate and on the basepaths:

 

 

2. Trout.  +1.24     (doesn't include defense, which is where Trout is getting most of his WAR so far)

22. Pujols. +0.54 

69. Kendrick. -013

79. Ibanez. -0.37

85. Freese. -0.45

87. Aybar. -0.47

 

Out of 98 qualified batters in the league.

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Does WAR adjust for where guys play?

 

Troy tulowitski and charlie blackmon are completely differently players when they play at home compared to the road.

 

Yeah, it does - although through Defense.

 

fWAR is comprised of Offensive Runs, Defensive Runs, and Baserunning.  Def is adjusted by position.

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WAR isn't weighted by situational leverage. Win Probability Added (WPA) is a more appropriate metric to use to judge Howie at the plate and on the basepaths:

 

 

"More appropriate" depending on the agenda I guess.   It's the best stat to use to paint Kendrick in his poorest light...     Chris Ianetta ranked 2nd in MLB in WPA going into tonights game.   I find it sorta funny that sabermetrics spends decades arguing there is no such thing as a clutch hitter, then it creates WPA to measure clutch in a new and more subjective way.   This statistic is entirely based on the theory that timing is everything. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa/

 

Things to Remember:

● WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future. But it does give us a picture of which players helped their team the most during the course of a game. A fun way to think of WPA is as a storytelling statistic. It highlights the big (and most exciting) moments of a game as well as the players who contributed most to a win (or loss).

● Like RBIs and HRs, WPA is a counting statistic, meaning that players with more playing time will have more opportunities to accrue a higher WPA.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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No doubt.

As a poker player I appreciate math, stats, probability, and essentially forecasting. But the saber stuff is obscure where it constantly has contradictions and overrides itself. Numbers canceling or validating stats seem to be rather easy.

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I don't think you can say WPA was created to prove "clutch". You could just as easily say that it was created to disprove it. In any event, most of the people I see use the stat aren't using it to show whether a player is clutch or whether clutch is real or not. They are using it to simply show how a players performance actually impacted a game. Not predictive but it definitely helps to see if that rage you have everytime you see a certain player up with men on is justified or not.

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"More appropriate" depending on the agenda I guess.   It's the best stat to use to paint Kendrick in his poorest light...     Chris Ianetta ranked 2nd in MLB in WPA going into tonights game.   I find it sorta funny that sabermetrics spends decades arguing there is no such thing as a clutch hitter, then it creates WPA to measure clutch in a new and more subjective way.   This statistic is entirely based on the theory that timing is everything. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa/

 

Things to Remember:

● WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future. But it does give us a picture of which players helped their team the most during the course of a game. A fun way to think of WPA is as a storytelling statistic. It highlights the big (and most exciting) moments of a game as well as the players who contributed most to a win (or loss).

● Like RBIs and HRs, WPA is a counting statistic, meaning that players with more playing time will have more opportunities to accrue a higher WPA.

 

 

It wasn't created for that purpose at all.  The 'clutch' stat was a byproduct and doesn't really measure if a player is good in high leverage situations but how good they are relative to non clutch situations. 

 

It basically assigns a value to what happened relative to how important the situation was.  Another by product is WPA/LI which is considered a much better indicator of how a player has performed because it takes leverage out of the equation.  It's a historical record of what happened so it doesn't 'paint' kendrick in any light other than how he actually performed.  It's the sum of his events.

 

There are a handful of players that performed better than their 'normal' in high leverage situations.  Most perform a bit worse, but there are a handful of guys that perform significantly worse.  Howie happens to be one of those guys that has consistently performed well below his usual in high leverage.  It's not anecdotal.  It's not a small sample. 

 

Is it predictive?  maybe to some degree, but generally not.  Maybe just for howie because of his susceptibility to the breaking ball away which is a common pitch for late inning relievers.  Maybe that's it, maybe not. 

 

There is nothing contradictory or overriding about the stat if you know how it works or what it can be used for. 

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Trust me I get how it works, there has been a form of win probability around for a good 30-40 years... I also get what it shouldn't be used for.   And yeah -- Howie has never been a high leverage player... a fact the masses refer to as his lack of "clutch" and that's what his detractors are trying to convey in saying WPA is a more appropriate statistic to gauge him on than WAR.     That's the statement I responded to.  Honestly, I shouldn't have bothered... certain people have always and will always find a way to diminish Kendrick regardless of how well he may be playing.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Trust me I get how it works, there has been a form of win probability around for a good 30-40 years... I also get what it shouldn't be used for.   And yeah -- Howie has never been a high leverage player... a fact the masses refer to as his lack of "clutch" and that's what his detractors are trying to convey in saying WPA is a more appropriate statistic to gauge him on than WAR.     That's the statement I responded to.  Honestly, I shouldn't have bothered... certain people have always and will always find a way to diminish Kendrick regardless of how well he may be playing.

I actually love kendrick and think he gets way undervalued.  He's an above average 2b with solid defense.  We haven't had to worry about the 2b position for almost nine years.  What he doesn't do in high leverage he makes up for elsewhere, but his failures become memorable.  On top of the expectations that were initially put on him and he becomes a hater magnet.   

 

When the rumors of him potentially getting traded were swirling, I was against it wholeheartedly. 

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Does WAR adjust for where guys play?

 

Troy tulowitski and charlie blackmon are completely differently players when they play at home compared to the road.

 

It adjusts for the run scoring environment. IE it weighs a home run as slightly more valuable in the stadium where teams average 4 runs per game as opposed to 5.

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