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Jeppy since April 1


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Both are small sample sizes.

How many inherited runners has he let score?

I am not saying Jeppy is the cat's meow. Or that he will continue to pitch well. But I am saying that for the last month he has been not just acceptable, but downright dominant.

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I am not saying Jeppy is the cat's meow. Or that he will continue to pitch well. But I am saying that for the last month he has been not just acceptable, but downright dominant.

 

You just summed up why they have kept him around as long as they have -- he's got all the tools to be ridiculously good.  Kevin Jepsen is the biggest tease in Angels bullpen history,

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This has been Jeppy's career in a nutshell. He has always had stretches where he was unhittable. Then, he has blown up and looked like a guy that doesn't belong in the majors. Actually, each team probably has 3 Jepsen's in their bullpen. It's the life of a reliever.

 

If a starter gives up 2 or 3 runs in the first inning but allows 0 runs through the next 6, people say he pitched well. If a reliever does it, people will hold that 1 outing against him forever.

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You just summed up why they have kept him around as long as they have -- he's got all the tools to be ridiculously good. Kevin Jepsen is the biggest tease in Angels bullpen history,

This is correct.

I just hope he can keep it going because we've seen these spurts of greatness from Jepsen before. If he can continue pitching this way he's basically our DDLR of 2013.

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You can't just pull up his stats and act as if he's been dominant.  If you've actually been watching the games this has been the Jeppy outing:  Comes in to a situation with a RISP or two and one out or so.  Promptly allows both runs to score.  Gets the next two outs.  So his line still looks dominant but he still didn't do his job.

 

 It's the reason even Mike Scioscia, with this crappy bullpen, has stopped using him in favor of freaking Salas or Kohn.  If he was as dominant as his numbers indicate than he'd be our 8th inning guy right now.  

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Yet so many want to DFA him, why is that?

 

because we've seen this before from him...for the last 7 years. He'll have a little stretch like this, then stink it up again. It's what he's always done

 

he can be tolerable as long as he doesn't have to face lefties much, but I'd rather they just replace him. He's been a mediocre reliever for years and has somehow stuck with the team

Edited by bloodbrother
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You can't just pull up his stats and act as if he's been dominant.  If you've actually been watching the games this has been the Jeppy outing:  Comes in to a situation with a RISP or two and one out or so.  Promptly allows both runs to score.  Gets the next two outs.  So his line still looks dominant but he still didn't do his job.

 

 It's the reason even Mike Scioscia, with this crappy bullpen, has stopped using him in favor of freaking Salas or Kohn.  If he was as dominant as his numbers indicate than he'd be our 8th inning guy right now.  

This. Jepsen is a train wreck, and has been for years. There is no good reason to have kept him after the first few years of the experiment. He is what he is, a bomb waiting to go off. On the other hand, Dipoto hasn't been so great at picking up his replacement. So we are stuck on this nightmare ride for the foreseeable future.

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You can't just pull up his stats and act as if he's been dominant.  If you've actually been watching the games this has been the Jeppy outing:  Comes in to a situation with a RISP or two and one out or so.  Promptly allows both runs to score.  Gets the next two outs.  So his line still looks dominant but he still didn't do his job.

 

 It's the reason even Mike Scioscia, with this crappy bullpen, has stopped using him in favor of freaking Salas or Kohn.  If he was as dominant as his numbers indicate than he'd be our 8th inning guy right now.  

 

You're right of course, but that dominance in low leverage situations is why they invariably give him other high leverage situations to blow.   Dude is a tease.

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because we've seen this before from him...for the last 7 years. He'll have a little stretch like this, then stink it up again. It's what he's always done

 

he can be tolerable as long as he doesn't have to face lefties much, but I'd rather they just replace him. He's been a mediocre reliever for years and has somehow stuck with the team

 

Yeah, pretty much.

 

There's just no reason to trust him at all anymore. He's not some youngster who came up and struggled at first and is rounding into form. He's not even say Michael Kohn who has been teasing and frustrating for a couple years now.

 

He's been on the major league roster for at least parts of 7 years now, and has been in the organization for 13.

 

It's nice that he's pitching well now and as long as we're stuck with him on the roster, I hope it continues, but Kevin Jepsen himself has given us every reason to doubt the likelihood of that and want him DFAd.

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Both are small sample sizes.

 

How many inherited runners has he let score?

 

7 out of 14.

 

Edit: For comparison's sake, Salas has allowed all 6 inherited runners to score. Maronde is 5 out of 10.  Kohn is zero out of 6.

Edited by jsnpritchett
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Kevin Jepsen since his MLB debut 7 years ago

 

225 2/3 IP

4.35 ERA

1.44 WHIP

.271 BAA

 

Basically, if he was a starter, he'd be on par with Joe Blanton(4.51 ERA, 1.36 WHIP for career) or Joe Saunders(4.31 ERA, 1.40 WHIP for career)

Edited by bloodbrother
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I'm sure we'd all like to see Jepsen take it to the next level and become a consistent reliever, but you really have to question if he has that abilty after all this time without any prolonged streches of success. If Morin, Bedrosian and Alvarez all perform well this year it could mean the end of Jepsens career as an Angel.

Edited by The Dude
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The Angels doesn't need relievers as volatile as Jepsen.  Sure, he can be dominant, he can also be useless and there's no indicator as to when his performance will swing one way or the other.  They already have Michael Kohn who can do that.  On top of which, they need to make room for Alvarez and Bedrock.

 

I'd trade Jepsen the first chance I get.  

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Win probability is a good way to look at relievers

 

Jep's WPA over the last 3+ years?

 

-0.72. This year he's at -0.12.  So the sum of his contributions to the team have contributed negative value even with his recent run of being 'dominant'. 

 

Ernesto -  4.46

Kohn -  0.72 (had negative numbers in 2012, 2013)

DDLR - 0.85

Burnett - 0.65 (yes that's in his 13 games as a halo)

 

Percival, Krod and Shields are 1,2,3 for the history of the franchise as expected. 

 

Of the 46 relievers the halos have used over the last 3+ years, only 5 other relievers have had the sum of their events result in less. 

Richards, David Carpenter, Izzy, Rich Thompson, and Fernando Rodney. 

 

Fangraphs also tracks shutdowns and meltdowns.  It's basically two stats that track whether a reliever increased or decrease the win probability for a team by 6% in either direction. 

 

over the last 3+ years:

Jepsen has had 31 and 25 respectively.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2014&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=1&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d

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Unfortunately, perception has nothing to do with statistics.  That opening day debacle was so bad, it has left an enduring mark on my psyche preventing me from acknowledging Jepson's improved performance this season.  All of his previous debacles during his 13 years also prevent me from seeing his value.  It is a personality defect I live with.

 

I am always happy when he gets outs, and never happy when he comes into the game. I don't understand it but that is the way it is.

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