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The Ridiculously Early Mike Trout Race to the MVP thread

Hollyw00d

By Hollyw00d
in LA Angels | MLB Daily

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NrM Everyday Player

NrM

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Posted

In all seriousness, there's a real possibility Michael trout could be twice as productive as the second best player in the league this season. think about that for a minute

It's definitely possible. Especially in the AL.

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stevestevens
stevestevens

He strikes out too much. Way way way too much. Pkus he K's a lot. Then there is also the fact that he doesn't steal anymore and we haven't even begun to discuss the high strike out rate.

Thomas
Thomas

Plus he is a dick when he orders from Subway. Seriously, using a cell phone is too much to ask? Property damage is no laughing matter!

Angels_Make_Me_Drink
Angels_Make_Me_Drink

He needs to stop looking at the 3rd strike before I can even take him seriously for MVP.   And plus, he needs to hit 40+ HRs and 140+ RBIs because nobody cares about WAR

AngelsLakersFan Hall of Fame

AngelsLakersFan

Posted
Posted

Trout's WAR this season is currently inflated by an unsustainable defensive rating. He's likely to have a good defensive year (because he's off to such a great start), but it's impossible to project him to keep up his current pace throughout. It'd be like projecting a batter to hit .500.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

Trout's WAR this season is currently inflated by an unsustainable defensive rating. He's likely to have a good defensive year (because he's off to such a great start), but it's impossible to project him to keep up his current pace throughout. It'd be like projecting a batter to hit .500.

It's averaging out from last year, when baseball reference considered him IIRC the second worst defender in the American League.

 

Last season instead of robbing home runs he actually nudged three balls over the wall that would have otherwise remained in the park, and as far as I can tell Baseball reference weights home run robberies excessively strongly in their WAR calculations. Fangraphs thought Trout was a bit above average last year.

 

 

He also has a positive clutchness rating for the first time ever.

 

If the Angels can make it to the playoffs, he's a lock. Otherwise it will go to the player with the most homers east of the Mississippi.

Edited by ScottLux
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stevestevens Top Prospect

stevestevens

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Trout's WAR this season is currently inflated by an unsustainable defensive rating. He's likely to have a good defensive year (because he's off to such a great start), but it's impossible to project him to keep up his current pace throughout. It'd be like projecting a batter to hit .500.

 

 

Mike Trout just read this post and he is not amused.  Not only will he sustain his defensive rating, he is doubling down, and will improve on it.  (Think Kelly Leak on steroids.  Not only will he start running in front of the corner OF'ers, he is also going to start covering second on steals, taking ground balls when possible, and some other things)

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Thomas Just Drafted

Thomas

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Mike Trout just read this post and he is not amused.  Not only will he sustain his defensive rating, he is doubling down, and will improve on it.  (Think Kelly Leak on steroids.  Not only will he start running in front of the corner OF'ers, he is also going to start covering second on steals, taking ground balls when possible, and some other things)

 

To be fair Conger already is throwing to Mike on throws to second.

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eaterfan Utility Player

eaterfan

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Mike Trout just read this post and he is not amused.  Not only will he sustain his defensive rating, he is doubling down, and will improve on it.  (Think Kelly Leak on steroids.  Not only will he start running in front of the corner OF'ers, he is also going to start covering second on steals, taking ground balls when possible, and some other things)

 

And he'll hit .500

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Tank Hall of Fame

Tank

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this may be simplistic, but if trout steals more bases, that leaves first open, and pujols is going to get a lot more walks. without a big bat behind pujols, the chances for him and trout to just waste away out there on the bases is going to be quite a bit higher.

 

maybe when hamilton returns (and hopefully picks up right where he left off with the bat), trout may be able to steal a few more bags because there's some protection behind pujols.

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eaterfan Utility Player

eaterfan

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Posted (edited)

this may be simplistic, but if trout steals more bases, that leaves first open, and pujols is going to get a lot more walks. without a big bat behind pujols, the chances for him and trout to just waste away out there on the bases is going to be quite a bit higher.

 

maybe when hamilton returns (and hopefully picks up right where he left off with the bat), trout may be able to steal a few more bags because there's some protection behind pujols.

 

Pujols getting intentionally walked is awesome. If Pujols is hitting .300 and the guy behind him is hitting .270 that's only a 3% greater likelihood of Pujols getting a hit than whoever is behind him. In 600 ABs that is only 18 hits over the course of a season. I'll take my chances with the .270 guy with two guys on in front of him than .300 with 1 guy. Pujols will have more power but is also probably more of a double play threat and Trout stealing second eliminates that.

 

If the dropoff between Pujols and whoever behind him was so great pitchers should just walk him as soon as Mike Trout reaches first.

Edited by eaterfan
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Guest

Guest

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For the record I still advocate putting Hamilton in between Trout and Pujols when he returns.

Agreed.

 

Trout got a huge percentage of his steals last year in the relatively few games with Josh batting behind him. 

 

When he gets a strike strikes, Hamilton is more likely to swing and miss rather than foul off pitches like Pujols. Hamilton also has less tendency to GIDP. Finally Hamilton is a quicker runner than Pujols so both Trout and Hamilton can score/advance from Pujols hits. 

 

I also like what I'm seeing so far with Kendrick at leadoff. I'd like to see Sciosica stick with that for a while and if it works out for him, keep him there. Calhoun could be brought back in to bat 5th behind Pujols:

 

Kendrick

Trout

Hamilton

Pujols

Calhoun

Ibanez 

Aybar

Conger  <-- primary catcher

Stewart

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