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A theory on David Freese


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Again, sure I liked Petey, but I think most of us understood that he was odd man out with Trout on the team.  What I found disturbing was that we traded one of our only chips for something that wasn't really a hole and didn't make the hole any better.  

 

Even if we couldn't have gotten a ML level player for him, maybe some decent prospects would have a good return.  Instead we got older and worse defensively when we were crappy last year defensively.

 

oh there was a hole there.  they just covered it with a tarp and a bunch of leaves.   IT'S A TRAP!!!

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Freese doesnt like baseball anymore, dude is more interested in partying

 

This needs more attention, because it's truly the reason for his lack of focus. 

 

I think Freese is talented and can turn it around, but he's gonna have to make some sacrifices first.

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I don't think Salas is that bad. 

 

While not a No.1 or No. 2 reliever, he's much better than Jepsen.  He has good K/9 and K/BB and low HR numbers.  

 

Wait, your comp to argue that Salas is ok is that he's better than Jepsen?  Sorry, that's like a movie reviewer saying the movie is better than Ishtar.

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Wait, your comp to argue that Salas is ok is that he's better than Jepsen?  Sorry, that's like a movie reviewer saying the movie is better than Ishtar.

 

Look at Salas' numbers some time.  He's much better than Jepsen, but the Angels (or Scioscia?) seem to think otherwise.  That's all I'm saying. 

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What makes Salas so bad?  He's average with above average potential, something the Angels' bullpen sorely lacks. 

he has inherited 5 runners.  They have all scored. 

 

gm 1 came in tied.  left with a 1 run deficit

gm 2 came in with a 2 run deficit.  left with a 6 run deficit

gm 3 had a lock down inning in an 11-1 win

gm 4 came in with a 1 run deficit.  left with a 2 run deficit

gm 5 had a shutout inning in a 5-4 win

gm 6 came in with a 1 run lead and left with a 1 run deficit

gm 7 lock down inning in a 9-10 loss

gm 8 pitched two lock down innings in a 5-4 win

 

so in the seven games that have mattered, he's done his job well 3 times.  That is not a very good ratio. 

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Even if Grichuk was in the halos minor league system and Bourjos was sitting squarely on the halo bench with almost no at bats, that would actually hold much greater value to this team than what Salas and Freese have combined for. Seriously, did these guys even get scouted before this trade? We can see from their numbers that they are the same players they once were.

Schuck, Cowgil, and Boesch would still be getting PT.
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I'm curious, can I start suggesting Dipoto isn't the genius everyone was anointing him as and say he's just another dumb ex-player that read Moneyball and duped Arte into thinking he's the next Billy Beane (the not gay one)?

Dipoto was handed a raw deal.  The foundation of the team he inherited was broken yet the expectations of how the team was supposed to be were very high. 

He was given the task of taking said team and rebuilding that foundation while trying not to disappoint those lofty expectations. 

 

Many of his signings and pretty much every one of his trades that involved bringing in a fairly well established player have been at best questionable to a catastrophic disaster.  A few of which seemed predictable.  Others not so much.  But this seems to be where he really has a weak spot.  Albert, Josh, Blanton, Freese, Salas, Hansen, Ibanez, Izzy, Burnett, Madsen have all essentially been an absolute failure.  And even though some of it was predictable, the degree of failure by these guys wasn't.  The downside has been way worse than anyone could have expected.  In pretty epic fashion actually. 

 

When he is able to trade for someone who isn't well established, he has done well.  By all accounts, he also has the farm system moving in the right direction again. 

 

So in essence, while I have disagreed with some of the moves he's made, they have worked out far worse than anyone in their right mind could have anticipated.  And therefore, while I am not happy with it, I can't totally put all of the blame on him for the players not performing to at least mildly below expectations. 

 

Do I think he is a genius?  Far from it.  I would actually think he's pretty solid if not for one thing.  The bullpen.  And in particular, this years bullpen.  He's got a manager that for whatever reason has shown to do well when having good bullpens.  He's got a young unchallenged staff that is unlikely to eat many innings.  He's got very few if any arms from the farm to call upon for help.  He's got an excellent offense that needs a chance by keeping games close.  He's watched a bullpen be at replacement level for the last two years and it clearly needed some established players to improve it. 

 

All of those things add up to needing a good bullpen to win games.  So he adds one legitimate guy and goes dumpster diving for the rest.  He's counts on an arm in burnett that shouldn't be counted on.  And on top of that one of his most reliable guys from last year is now injured.  Adding those two additional established arms to the pen would probably have negated all of the potential ill will and this team would have a winning record right now.  But nope.  He's now made the same error three years in a row and to me, that is unacceptable. 

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Look at Salas' numbers.  They aren't that bad. 

I posted his numbers above.  Look at his game log.  He's allowed all five of his inherited runners to score.  His peripherals aren't bad.  In fact, they are pretty good, but his numbers don't tell the story of how he's performed when it really counts.  If you go beyond his numbers and watch him pitch, he's got a very hittable fastball.  For the team to rely on him in close games is just a bad idea.

 

Don't get me wrong, Jepsen sucks too, but neither of them should be anywhere near a game where one swing could make a difference in either direction. 

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I posted his numbers above.  Look at his game log.  He's allowed all five of his inherited runners to score.  His peripherals aren't bad.  In fact, they are pretty good, but his numbers don't tell the story of how he's performed when it really counts.  If you go beyond his numbers and watch him pitch, he's got a very hittable fastball.  For the team to rely on him in close games is just a bad idea.

 

Don't get me wrong, Jepsen sucks too, but neither of them should be anywhere near a game where one swing could make a difference in either direction. 

 

The best scenario I envision for him is a 7th inning guy with a minimum of a two run lead -- especially if he starts the inning himself.  I think he could excel in that role, and he might have to since the Angels don't have too many alternatives. 

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Do I think he is a genius?  Far from it.  I would actually think he's pretty solid if not for one thing.  The bullpen.  And in particular, this years bullpen.  He's got a manager that for whatever reason has shown to do well when having good bullpens.  He's got a young unchallenged staff that is unlikely to eat many innings.  He's got very few if any arms from the farm to call upon for help.  He's got an excellent offense that needs a chance by keeping games close.  He's watched a bullpen be at replacement level for the last two years and it clearly needed some established players to improve it. 

 

All of those things add up to needing a good bullpen to win games.  So he adds one legitimate guy and goes dumpster diving for the rest.  He's counts on an arm in burnett that shouldn't be counted on.  And on top of that one of his most reliable guys from last year is now injured.  Adding those two additional established arms to the pen would probably have negated all of the potential ill will and this team would have a winning record right now.  But nope.  He's now made the same error three years in a row and to me, that is unacceptable. 

 

You know what's disconcerting about the bullpen failures?  Dipoto has an edge over most general managers because he played in MLB as a reliever.  He spent 8 years pitching out of the bullpen and you'd expect somebody with that experience to evaluate bullpen talent much better than other GM's. 

 

Just the opposite seems to be happening.  Why? 

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In defense of dipoto (who is rightfully being called out), the truth is we dont know what kind of budget hes working with. Money may be tighter than we know.

I think people are glossing over the fact we just extended trout...that is 3 years in a row we have signed a huge contract (not including weaver and cj). No idea if thats the problem, BUT, he could be having to get very creative with a limited budget.

That said, fully agree. I really wanted us to grab tanaka this offseason (and really thought we were going to). After we didnt, I thought for sure we were going to grab at minimum 3 legit pen arms. Didnt have to be big name closers, but 3 legit guys who could be counted on to take the ball in the 7th and 8th (and to possibly take ernestos job).

Hopefully the master plan includes bedrosian and the other names you guys keep mentioning

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While Angels fans are waxing nostalgic over the awesomeness of Bourjesus, he is on the verge of losing his starting to gig to a hot-hitting Jon Jay.

 

Cards fans haven't seen a hitter this consistently over-matched since, well, Pete Kozma. But the point is that he looks really, really bad.

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Anyone else notice Freese's career .350+ babip (Compared to .290 for Callaspo)? Right now it is a pathetic .180, which has hope for improvement, but his career norms put him with guys like Trout and Ichiro. That does not seem right at all. How is it that a guy with poor speed and base running gets the same babip as them? Godly hand eye coordination? Maybe Freese has just had a very lucky career so far and is due for some regression.

 

Salas seems pretty average, but average is better than very bad, you can't just have good players (Can you? I have only ever been an angels fan  :lol: ). Replacing bad pieces with average ones is a start. I mean who here didn't feel we were going to lose as soon as Jepsen was called in? I JUST introduced my girlfriend to baseball this season and SHE called it :wacko:. Well at least he stepped it up in Blanton's absence. 

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Freese is a legit starting third baseman, something this team hasn't had since Troy Glaus. He's not a second baseman playing out of position, or a converted SS. Now, his bat has been awful starting the year. Green, Jimenez, and even Ian Stewart, who did not figure into this team's plans until ST, have been hitting better.

 

I was fine with a Grant Green / Luis Jimenez platoon there going into the off-season, but I was fine with the Freese trade, but felt we could've expanded it a little bit, given up a little bit more and gotten a starter instead of Salas.

 

Still, I wanted a rebounding Freese. A successful, 5-6-7 type hitter. That's not what they've had so far. He usually starts slow, but hopefully that doesn't keep going. 

 

Freese isn't under contract past this year, and unless he starts hitting, he will not receive a tender in the offseason.

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Yea I get that Poozy, but do you honestly think that if Dipoto was offered decent pitching for Peter he wouldn't have taken that deal?

I think you're missing the point. That deal right from the start was a non starter. It did NOTHING to deal with the real problems this team faced. Salas, really? Everybody BUT Dipoto knew that was going to be a mess. 

 

It's not so much about what we gave up, it's much more about what we didn't gain. Dipoto got worked, again.   

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