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Angels rotation ranked 18th by Fangraphs


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Does it really matter?  Where did they have us last year going into the season?

 

Exactly what i was going to ask.  Here's the answer:

 

 

1. Los Angeles Angels

Player TM IP BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WAR Jered Weaver LAA 215.0 2.3 8.1 0.9 5.5 Dan Haren LAA 215.0 1.6 7.4 1.0 5.0 C.J. Wilson LAA 200.0 3.4 8.0 0.6 5.0 Ervin Santana LAA 190.0 2.8 6.9 1.2 2.5 Jerome Williams LAA 75.0 2.6 5.6 1.3 0.5 Brad Mills LAA 50.0 3.5 6.5 1.3 0.5 Garrett Richards LAA 25.0 3.8 5.2 1.2 -

 

 

Take the fourth best rotation in baseball from last year, add C.J. Wilson, and this is what you get – a true tour de force of starting pitchers. Weaver, Haren, and Wilson are all #1 starters on most teams, and Santana’s a pretty spectacular #4 starter. They’re not going to get much from their #5 starter, but their first four are just so good that it won’t matter too much. There’s a reason everyone’s on the Angels bandwagon this year, and while that Pujols guy has something to do with, so does this ridiculous rotation they’ve assembled.

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The projections are based on ZiPs, notoriously conservative, and Steamers, not very optimistic either. Just saying, Spring Training stats are not end all be all, and this isn't the bullpen only the rotation. Weaver, Wilson, and Vargas could be good to very good. Blanton could be decent and it's possible that Hanson might be almost average. 18th sounds feasible.

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As I understand it, WAR for starting pitchers is influenced heavily by the number of innings pitched per start.  The deeper they pitch into games -- assuming all other variables are held constant -- will shift some of the WAR that might otherwise be credited to a relief pitcher. 

 

So if you have a paranoid coaching staff concerned with pitching counts, the starter's WAR will be lower because they pitch fewer innings. 

 

I believe this is why Verlander is at the top with a 5.8 WAR because Jim Leyland regularly lets him go 115-130 pitches per start.  Weaver, on the other hand, has a 3.5 WAR.

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At that rate, Weaver will still be pitching well when Verlander begins to cycle down.

That's a lot of pitches today (115-130 - Verlander) for a lot of years to make.

Both Weaver and Verlander are 30, but Verlander has already thrown 1624 innings including the post-season, vs. only 1341 innings by Weaver.

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Who the hey was rated ahead of Trout in LF?

Edit: Ryan Braun is #1. Okay, he is real good. BUT, Trout is better defensively, is comparable at the plate, and better on the bases. PLUS for hitting, Miller Park >>>>>>>>>> Angel Stadium.

But Trout will not play all his games in LF. They did this based on projected playing time at the position.

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